Week Four Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records Last Week + Records Last Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 8-8 (.500)            Straight Up: 182-85 (.682)             Total: 369-209-4 (.637) 

Spread: 10-6 (.625)                  Spread: 151-104-12 (.588)             Total: 325-236-21 (.578)      

Over/Under: 11-5 (.688)           Over/Under: 149-112-6 (.569)       Total: 318-258-6 (.551)

Best Bets: 3-4 (.429)                Best Bets: 74-46 (.617)                  Total: 211-155-1 (.576) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: Los Angeles 24  MINNESOTA 20

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)

8:30 PM NBC          Spread: PIT -3             O/U: 50              DVOA: BAL (6) < PIT (4)              Public Betting: BAL 61%

The Steelers’ season has been anything but smooth so far. And unfortunately for them, things won’t get any easier as they host their rival in a crucial AFC North contest.

Baltimore is no pushover. The Ravens’ defense enters Week 4 allowing the fewest yards per drive (18.9) in the NFL and their offense looks improved after overhauling their receiving corps. With that said, I think Baltimore’s numbers are a tad deceptive because they beat up on Nathan Peterman and the Bills in Week One. Pittsburgh has also had success recently against the Ravens’ D, averaging 35 points per game in their past two meetings at Heinz Field.

The Steelers’ offense, which ranks 7th in yards per play through three weeks, has proven that it can get by without Le’Veon Bell, so I’ll take them to hold serve at home.

PITTSBURGH 31  Baltimore 24 

 

Miami Dolphins (3-0) vs New England Patriots (1-2)

1:00 PM CBS          Spread: NE -6.5             O/U: 48             DVOA: MIA (5) > NE (8)              Public Betting: MIA 59%

New England’s sluggish start to the 2018 campaign is certainly cause for some concern. Their offense is short on skill players, their defense made Blake Bortles look like an All-Pro quarterback, and injuries are already starting to pile up.

However, let’s maintain perspective. You may remember that many analysts declared the Patriots’ dynasty to be over following their 2-2 start to the 2014 season. I can still remember Trent Dilfer after that ugly Monday Night loss to the Chiefs: “Let’s face it — they’re not good anymore!” Things looked so bleak in Foxboro that Belichick began fielding questions about whether it was time to replace Tom Brady with Jimmy Garoppolo. We even slipped to #17 on ESPN’s weekly power rankings! Oh the horror!

Two Super Bowl titles later, there were many people who thought the Pats didn’t have another run in them after their defense looked horrendous at the start of last year too. Another overreaction.

With Julian Edelman and (potentially) Josh Gordon projected to add much-needed firepower to the Patriots’ offense in the coming weeks, I still don’t think there’s any reason to doubt that New England won’t be around come mid-January. That being said, the Dolphins are an emerging team with two underrated receivers — Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson (2nd and 3rd respectively in the NFL in yards per route run) — that should make life difficult for the Patriots’ mediocre defense.

Miami will hang around, but  — as they always do — Brady and Belichick will find a way.

NEW ENGLAND 27  Miami 20 

 

New Orleans Saints (2-1) vs New York Giants (1-2)

4:25 PM CBS             Spread: NO -3              O/U: 51.5            DVOA: NO (3) > NYG (29)               Public Betting: NO 59%

This won’t be an easy game for New Orleans because the Giants definitely have the ability to take advantage of a Saints defense that is allowing the 2nd most points per drive in the NFL (2.82). But here’s one reason their defense may be due for a regression to the mean: turnovers. New Orleans has just one takeaway through three weeks, tied with Oakland for the fewest in the league.

As I’ve said before, turnovers are pretty unpredictable. So I’ll go out on a limb and say that New Orleans will finally post a positive turnover differential this week, allowing Drew Brees and company to safely move to 3-1.

NEW ORLEANS 38  New York 24 

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

1:00 PM CBS             Spread: ATL -3.5             O/U: 53.5              DVOA: CIN (10) > ATL (22)             Public Betting: CIN 57%

No team has been decimated by injuries more than the Falcons, as they’ve lost key defensive starters Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Ricardo Allen, as well as offensive guard Andy Levitre. That’s good news for a Bengals team that has been better than expected on offense (6th in points per game). Yet even though I like Cincinnati’s value with the spread, I’ll still take Atlanta to prevail because I think Matt Ryan can exploit a Bengals defense that is allowing the 8th most yards per drive.

Atlanta 26  CINCINNATI 24 

 

Detroit Lions (1-2) vs Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

1:00 PM FOX            Spread: DAL -3             O/U: 44              DVOA: DET (28) < DAL (17)             Public Betting: DET 58%

Look for this one to be a low scoring affair. Not only do both offenses rank in the bottom half of yards per play, but Dallas’ defense surprisingly ranks tied for 1st in the NFL in opponent yards per play (4.3). However, the Cowboys will be without Sean Lee, who is out 2-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. Lee is their most valuable defensive starter, as Dallas went just 1-4 without him last season.

I’ll take Detroit to build on its impressive victory over New England and beat Dallas in a close one.

DETROIT 21  Dallas 20 

 

Also on the Sunday slate…

Buffalo Bills (1-2) vs Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: GB -9.5           O/U: 44.5              DVOA: BUF (32) < GB (15)             Public Betting: BUF 54%

The Packers have had a pedestrian start to the season, as they rank just 26th in net points per drive (-0.46). This could suggest that Josh Allen and the Bills have a chance to pull another major upset. I doubt this will happen, though. Lost amid their impressive victory over the Vikings was the fact that their average starting field position on their four scoring drives was the Minnesota 45 yard-line, thanks largely to two strip-sacks of Kirk Cousins deep in Vikings territory.

Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to give Buffalo those kind of opportunities.

GREEN BAY 34  Buffalo 17

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) vs Tennessee Titans (2-1)

1:00 PM FOX           Spread: PHI -3.5             O/U: 41.5            DVOA: PHI (7) > TEN (25)            Public Betting: PHI 68%

The Titans’ stout offensive line should be able to hold its own against Philly’s terrific front. However, Tennessee’s offense still ranks just 27th in yards per play through three weeks. I don’t trust they’ll be able to hang around with the Eagles, even if Carson Wentz takes another week to find his groove.

PHILADELPHIA 27  Tennessee 17

 

Houston Texans (0-3) vs Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: Pick ’em           O/U: 47             DVOA: HOU (12) > IND (19)              Public Betting: IND 58%

For at least another week, I’m still a believer in the Texans. Though they’re one of three teams that have yet to win a game, Houston has outgained its opponents in terms of total yardage and ranks a respectable 12th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. There is also a big discrepancy between these two offenses: the Texans rank 9th in yards per play, while the Colts rank only 28th. I’ll take Houston to get off the schneid.

HOUSTON 28  Indianapolis 24 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) vs Chicago Bears (2-1)

1:00 PM FOX           Spread: CHI -3           O/U: 46.5               DVOA: TB (24) < CHI (21)              Public Betting: TB 56%

Here’s a tip: when in doubt, bet the under on Bears’ games this year. Bad offense + great defense = low-scoring games. Even though Khalil Mack has been unstoppable this season, the NFL is still an offensive-driven league. Tampa is averaging a league-high 7.5 yards per play; Chicago is 30th at 4.4 per play. Fitzmagic continues.

TAMPA BAY 24  Chicago 20 

 

New York Jets (1-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

1:00 PM CBS           Spread: JAC -7.5            O/U: 38.5            DVOA: NYJ (20) < JAC (16)          Public Betting: JAC 61%

Red-zone efficiency will decide this game. Sam Darnold and the Jets have struggled in the red area thus far. I don’t see them scoring enough touchdowns to beat the Jaguars and their league-leading red-zone defense.

Jacksonville 20  NEW YORK 13 

 

Cleveland Browns (1-2) vs Oakland Raiders (0-3)

4:05 PM CBS             Spread: OAK -3             O/U: 45             DVOA: CLE (26) > OAK (27)             Public Betting: OAK 60%

Oakland isn’t quite as bad as people think. They’ve had second-half leads against each of their first three opponents, including the undefeated Rams and Dolphins. With that said, Cleveland is no longer the laughing stock of the NFL. While Baker Mayfield has generated all of the headlines over the past week, the real story is that the Browns legitimately have a top ten defense.

Cleveland may have lost LeBron James, but it will finally be rewarded with a perennial Super Bowl contender sooner than expected.

CLEVELAND 26  Oakland 23 

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs Arizona Cardinals (0-3)

4:05 PM FOX             Spread: SEA -3             O/U: 39             DVOA: SEA (14) > ARZ (31)               Public Betting: SEA 66%

My initial instinct was to pick Seattle because I didn’t expect too much from Josh Rosen in his first start. But with numerous starters, including linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, banged up, Rosen might fare better than expected. Moreover, Chandler Jones (42.5 sacks since 2015, most in the NFL) and the Cardinals’ front four should feast on a poor Seahawks offensive line. I’ll take Arizona in a minor upset.

ARIZONA 23 Seattle 17 

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) vs Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)

4:25 PM CBS           Spread: LAC -10             O/U: 46             DVOA: SF (30) < LAC (18)           Public Betting: LAC 65%

This looks to be the lock of the week, but I guess the same could have been said for the Vikings game last week. Nonetheless, I don’t expect C.J. Beathard to lead the 49ers to a win over a Chargers team that could use a win to move to .500.

Los Angeles 30  SAN FRANCISCO 23 

 

Best Bets

• NEW ORLEANS (-170) over New York 

• Teaser: CINCINNATI (+10) over Atlanta & Cincinnati vs Atlanta UNDER 60

• Detroit vs Dallas UNDER 44

• TAMPA BAY (+3) over Chicago 

• Tampa Bay vs Chicago UNDER 46.5

• PARLAY: GREEN BAY (-365) over Buffalo & LOS ANGELES (-460) over San Francisco 

 

Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to see who Mando likes to win Monday Night’s matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos!