Spread Bet Saturday: Week Five Edition
Last Week: 5-1 (.833) 2018: 14-8-1 (.630) Best Bets: 3-1 (.750) Upset Picks: 2-2 (.500)
*Overall: 141-103-3 (.577)
*Dates back to 2016 season
Green letters indicate pick with the spread
Marquee Matchups
#7 Stanford vs #8 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame -5.5 7:30 PM NBC Football Power Index: STAN (11) < ND (9) Public Betting: STAN 61%
Stanford has received a majority of action from the public…and yet the spread has shifted from -3.5 to -5.5 in favor of Notre Dame. What does that mean? It means that more money — likely from sharp bettors who wager on games for a living — is on the Fighting Irish.
Usually I like to side with sharp action. In this case, however, I won’t because I’m not sold on Notre Dame. After all, they won their first three by an average of only 7 points — and two of those wins came against Ball State and Vanderbilt! Stanford will keep it close.
Notre Dame 27 Stanford 24
#12 West Virginia vs #25 Texas Tech
Spread: West Virginia -3.5 12:00 PM ESPN2 FPI: WVU (18) < TTU (17) Public Betting: WVU 52%
The Moutaineers may be on the road, but quarterback Will Grief and their explosive offense have a HUGE edge in this matchup. In short, West Virginia ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play (7.9). Texas Tech’s defense, meanwhile, is a horrific 117th in yards per play allowed.
I’ll take West Virginia…by a lot.
West Virginia 45 Texas Tech 27
#19 Oregon vs #24 California
Spread: Oregon -2 10:30 PM FS1 FPI: ORE (33) > CAL (42) Public Betting: ORE 54%
Yes, Oregon’s loss last week to Stanford was heartbreaking. The good news, though, is that future first round pick Justin Herbert looked terrific (26-33, 346 yards) in his biggest test to date. But unfortunately for Herbert and the Ducks, things won’t get any easier this week against an underrated Cal team that has the top pass defense in the country through four weeks. I’ll take the Golden Bears at home.
California 27 Oregon 23
Best Bet
In front of its home crowd, #9 Penn State knocks off #4 Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State -3.5 7:30 PM ABC Football Power Index: OSU (2) > PSU (4) Public Betting: OSU 62%
On paper, Ohio State is the slightly better team. The Buckeyes are a tad more explosive offensively (8th in the nation in yards per play). Their quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, is second in the country in passer rating on clean dropbacks (152.9), according to Pro Football Focus. And their defense isn’t too shabby either (18th overall, according to Football Outsiders).
However, I’ve always felt that it’s not easy for these nineteen and twenty-year-old kids to go on the road and win in a raucous environment. Remember what happened the last time Ohio State traveled to Beaver Stadium in 2016: Urban Meyer’s squad was knocked off from their #2 ranking by an unranked Penn State team that was just starting its ascent back to the top of the polls.
This Nittany Lions team is even better. With quarterback Trace McSorley leading the country’s 2nd-highest scoring offense (55.5 points per game), I’ll take Penn State to beat a Nick Bosa-less Ohio State team.
Penn State 34 Ohio State 30
Upset Pick of the Week
Virginia Tech rebounds after embarrassing loss and beats #22 Duke
Spread: Duke -4.5 7:00 PM ESPN2 FPI: VT (34) < DUKE (25) Public Betting: DUKE 51%
Duke is solid — they have soundly beaten underrated teams like Army, who nearly upset Oklahoma last week. But I bet Virginia Tech will have a chip on its shoulder after losing as a 29-point favorite a week ago to Old Dominion. Things can only get better from here, right?
Virginia Tech 28 Duke 20
