Week Five Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 8-7 (.533)            Straight Up: 30-31-2 (.492)             Total: 377-216-4 (.635) 

Spread: 8-4-3 (.633)                  Spread: 29-28-6 (.492)             Total: 333-240-24 (.578)      

Over/Under: 7-8 (.467)           Over/Under: 34-29 (.569)       Total: 326-265-6 (.551)

Best Bets: 2-4 (.333)                Best Bets: 7-9 (.438)                  Total: 213-159-1 (.573) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: NEW ENGLAND 31  Indianapolis 17

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

1:00 PM CBS              Spread: KC -3           O/U: 49             DVOA: JAC (6) < KC (3)             Public Betting: KC 52%

This is a matchup we could certainly see come January, perhaps even in the AFC championship. And what I love about this matchup is that it is a clear strength vs strength battle: the Chiefs’ offense ranks 1st in the NFL in points per drive (3.45), the Jaguars’ defense ranks 1st in points per drive allowed (1.26).

Don’t be too quick to write off a Jacksonville upset. Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars 3rd-ranked pass defense is capable of containing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ electrifying offense. Doug Marrone’s squad also has an enormous edge in the trenches, as the Jaguars’ offensive line (4.37 adjusted line yards — 11th in NFL) will be able to dictate the pace of the game against Kansas City’s league-worst defensive front (5.34 adjusted line yards — 32nd in NFL). It’s not just the Chiefs’ run defense that’s bad too: they also have allowed the second most passing yards per game (328.5).

The Jaguars are simply the more well-rounded team. They have the league’s 2nd best yards per play differential (+1.3), while the Chiefs’ differential (-0.1) is well below-average due to their weak defense.

The writing is on the wall for an upset….

JACKSONVILLE 28  Kansas City 27 

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

4:25 PM FOX           Spread: PHI -3             O/U: 46.5            DVOA: MIN (19) < PHI (11)           Public Betting: MIN 58%

One of the biggest mysteries this season has been the sudden demise of Minnesota’s defense. After posting the lowest third down conversion percentage in thirty years last season, the Vikings are now allowing 6.4 yards per play (27th in the NFL). Sure, not having Pro Bowl defensive end Everson Griffen hasn’t helped, but Minnesota has only played the 24th hardest slate of opposing offenses through four weeks.

What gives? One reason is definitely the struggles of their two starting linebackers, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr, each of whom have below-average position grades according to Pro Football Focus. Minnesota’s weakness at linebacker should be exploited by Carson Wentz on Sunday, particularly now that he has running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back from injury.

Additionally, Philadelphia’s defense has a big edge inside with Fletcher Cox (91.9 PFF grade) and Brandon Graham (88.7) going up against some of the league’s worst starting offensive linemen in guard Mike Remmers (56.5) and tackle Rashod Hill (53.9).

After blowing out Minnesota in last year’s NFC Championship, Philadelphia will make life even more miserable for Vikings fans.

PHILADELPHIA 24  Minnesota 20 

 

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)

1:00 PM FOX           Spread: PIT -3                O/U: 58               DVOA: ATL (22) < PIT (9)             Public Betting: ATL 51%

This is a make-or-break game for the Falcons. There’s just no way they can recover from a 1-4 start in the NFC. Fortunately for them, though, they’re playing a struggling Pittsburgh team that has allowed 6.0 yards per play (25th in the NFL) through four weeks. The Steelers have recently been one of the worst teams to bet on at home as well: they have not only lost their last three games at Heinz Field outright, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in their previous seven.

Yet while it’s hard to trust Pittsburgh, Atlanta’s defense inspires even less confidence. Since losing three of its top players — Deion Jones, Ricardo Allen, and Keanu Neal — to injury, Dan Quinn’s unit has allowed a league high 34.7 points per game.

Look for Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster to have big fantasy days in what could be Sunday’s highest scoring affair.

PITTSBURGH 34  Atlanta 27 

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs Houston Texans (1-3)

8:30 PM NBC           Spread: HOU -3            O/U: 45.5             DVOA: DAL (20) < HOU (15)         Public Betting: HOU 50%

Despite their 1-3 start, I’m confident that the Texans will recover to secure a Wild Card berth come season’s end. Deshaun Watson has actually been better  than he was last season based on many advanced metrics such as Accurate+, while Houston’s defense looks to be turning the corner now that J.J. Watt (5 sacks) is back at full strength.

However, I’m hesitant to back Houston in this matchup for two reasons. First, wide receiver Will Fuller and running back Lamar Miller may miss this game due to injuries. Both are integral parts of the Texans’ offense. And second, standout edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence and the Cowboys’ front-four has a massive edge over Houston’s poor offensive line.

Ultimately, though, the Texans’ defense should be able to contain Dallas’ anemic passing offense (27th in yards per pass attempt) and I have enough trust in Watson to overcome the Cowboys’ underrated defense.

HOUSTON 29  Dallas 24 

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) vs Cleveland Browns (1-3)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: BAL -3           O/U: 45.5             DVOA: BAL (2) > CLE (27)            Public Betting: BAL 77%

Tough game to call. There may be a recent bias toward the Ravens based on how they thoroughly beat Pittsburgh in last Sunday’s primetime matchup. Additionally, Cleveland’s defense has been solid through four games, as they’ve allowed only 5.4 yards per play (10th in the NFL).

Nonetheless, Baltimore has several advantages. Led by safeties Tony Jefferson and Eric Weddle, the Ravens collectively have the NFL’s second-best pass coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus. They also have a big edge on special teams, thanks in large part to the fact that the Browns rank 32nd in this category according to Football Outsiders.

Combined with the multitude of weapons Joe Flacco now has at his disposal, the Ravens will piece together another workmanlike victory.

BALTIMORE 23  Cleveland 17 

 

Also on the Sunday slate…

Tennessee Titans (3-1) vs Buffalo Bills (1-3)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: TEN -5.5           O/U: 39.5            DVOA: TEN (23) > BUF (32)           Public Betting: TEN 66%

Not to reign on the Titans’ 3-1 parade, but they’re a tad  overrated as evidenced by their mediocre DVOA ranking. Nonetheless, Buffalo has the worst offense in football, so I don’t see them scoring many points against Tennessee’s league-leading red zone defense.

TENNESSEE 21  Buffalo 13

 

Miami Dolphins (3-1) vs Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

1:00 PM CBS           Spread: CIN -6           O/U: 48.5               DVOA: MIA (12) < CIN (10)            Public Betting: CIN 63%

The Bengals’ offense (31.5 points per game — 4th in NFL) has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. However, after losing tight end Tyler Eifert to a season-ending injury last week, Andy Dalton and company might have some trouble keeping up this torrid pace against a solid Miami secondary that includes emerging star Xavien Howard (7 interceptions since the start of last season).

Miami and Cincinnati rank 25th and 30th in yards per drive allowed respectively, so look for a lot of points scored in what should be a close contest. I’ll ultimately take the Bengals to prevail because I don’t trust Ryan Tannehill in key situations (70.1 passer rating on 3rd down).

Cincinnati 27  MIAMI 24 

 

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) vs Detroit Lions (1-3)

1:00 PM FOX            Spread: Pick ’em           O/U: 51               DVOA: GB (7) > DET (26)              Public Betting: GB 65%

Largely due to Aaron Rodgers’ injured knee, Green Bay’s offense has been pedestrian through four weeks (20th in yards per play). To make matters worse, they may have to make due this week without their top three receivers — Davante Adams (calf), Geronimo Allison (concussion), and Randall Cobb (hamstring).

The Packers have already ruled out Cobb, but even if Adams and Allison play, Green Bay will be hard pressed to keep up with Detroit’s solid offense (9th in yards per drive).

DETROIT 24  Green Bay 23

 

Denver Broncos (2-2) vs New York Jets (1-3)

1:00 PM CBS             Spread: DEN -1              O/U: 42.5            DVOA: DEN (21) > NYJ (25)           Public Betting: DEN 67%

I hate picking the Jets…but I’m going to do it here. Five reasons why:

• Yes, the Jets’ defense looked bad last week against Jacksonville. But they’re still only allowing 5.2 yards per play (6th in the NFL)
• The Broncos have been horrible on the road recently: since last season, they’re just 1-8 straight up
• Denver typically doesn’t play well in 1:00 games on the East Coast (six-game losing streak and a -17 point differential per game)
• Case Keenum has been shaky so far: he’s only the 25th highest-graded quarterback according to PFF in 2018
• And lastly, underdogs who are within five DVOA ranking slots as their opponent (like the Jets in this matchup) have a terrific 38-21-3 (.637) record against the spread since 2015

I hope I’m wrong…

NEW YORK 23  Denver 19

 

New York Giants (1-3) vs Carolina Panthers (2-1)

1:00 PM FOX          Spread: CAR -6.5           O/U: 43.5            DVOA: NYG (29) < CAR (14)             Public Betting: CAR 66%

The Giants might be able to hang around. New York certainly has the advantage on the perimeter with Odell Beckham (79.7 PFF grade) and Sterling Shepard (72.5) lining up across corners Donte Jackson (62.5) and James Bradberry (60.9).

But will Eli Manning have enough time and space to find Beckham and Sterling? Probably not. Kawann Short and the Panthers’ stout defensive front should dictate the line of scrimmage against the Giants’ weak o-line. And on the other side of the ball, Carolina’s league-leading rushing attack will open things up for Cam Newton to have a nice day through the air.

Carolina 21  NEW YORK 16

 

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

4:05 PM CBS           Spread: LAC -5.5            O/U: 52.5            DVOA: OAK (24) < LAC (16)            Public Betting: OAK 53%

Both teams can move the ball (Oakland is 7th in yards per play, Los Angeles is 5th) and both teams have poor defenses (31st and 28th in opponent yards per play respectively). I don’t know about you, but this feels like a toss up. I’ll side with the underdog, especially since the Raiders should have plenty of support at the Chargers’ “home” stadium.

OAKLAND 34  Los Angeles 31 

 

Arizona Cardinals (0-4) vs San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

4:25 PM FOX            Spread: SF -3               O/U: 40               DVOA: ARZ (31) < SF (30)            Public Betting: ARZ 72% 

What a matchup! Over 70% of bettors have driven this line down from -5.5 to -3. The reason why is because people seem to be buying into rookie Josh Rosen despite the Cardinals’ 0-4 record. Or maybe it’s because the 49ers are just as bad as Arizona.

ARIZONA 27  San Francisco 20 

 

Los Angeles Rams (4-0) vs Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

4:25 PM FOX              Spread: LAR -7.5            O/U: 50             DVOA: LAR (1) > SEA (17)           Public Betting: LAR 73%

There is little doubt that the Rams are the most complete team in the NFL. And for all the attention paid to their offense, how about their defensive front? Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh are the 1st and 8th highest-graded interior defenders in the NFL respectively according to PFF. Seattle’s offensive line? Yeah, they’re 31st in pass protection.

LOS ANGELES 34  Seattle 13

 

Best Bets

• JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Kansas City

• Baltimore vs Cleveland UNDER 45.5

• TEASER: MIAMI (+12.5) over Cincinnati & Miami vs Cincinnati OVER 42

• TEASER: DETROIT (+6.5) over Green Bay & Green Bay vs Detroit OVER 44.5 

• NEW YORK (+1.5) over Denver

• OAKLAND (+5.5) over Los Angeles 

• Oakland vs Los Angeles OVER 52.5

• Arizona vs San Francisco OVER 40 

• *LOS ANGELES (-7) over Seattle              *Buy 1/2 point