This is the second article of a ten-part NFL preview series in which I analyze the ten most compelling teams to watch this season. Click here to read why I think the Houston Texans are the league’s top Super Bowl dark horse.
Expectations always seem to be high for America’s team. The agonizing part about being a Cowboys fan over the past decade, though, is that rarely has Dallas actually lived up to its preseason hype.
2018 will be no different. Even though the buzz surrounding the Cowboys isn’t quite as high as it has been in past years (Vegas’s win total projection is 8.5, t-10th in NFL), Dak Prescott and company will once again fall short of the playoffs in a crowded NFC.
Now I know what you’re probably thinking: the Cowboys finished 9-7 last year despite losing Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) for six games. How could they regress? This is an interesting point because it’s certainly reasonable to say that if Elliott was healthy last year, Dallas would’ve made the postseason.
However, let’s first take a deeper look at the Cowboys’ body of work in 2017. Excluding its meaningless Week 17 victory over the Eagles, who rested their starters, Dallas was only 1-5 against teams that finished above .500. If we include their loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who wouldn’t have finished below .500 if Rodgers had not been injured, the Cowboys’ record drops to 1-6. In short, Dallas couldn’t hold its own against quality opponents.
More importantly, though, it was evident during the Cowboys’ six games without Elliott that they had become overly-reliant on their Pro Bowl running back. The offense failed to crack ten points in three of the six contests. And Prescott, frankly, was horrific, as he passed for only 191 yards per game and threw 7 interceptions.
While Elliott doesn’t project to miss time this season, Dallas’ offense will be even more dependent on its workhorse back. The problem is that Elliott’s task will be too difficult. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently noted, the Cowboys arguably have the worst receiving corps in football after losing both Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten. Granted, Bryant and Witten were both far past their primes last year, but their absence certainly leaves a void now that newcomer Allen Hurns (39 receptions and 2 touchdowns last season with Jacksonville) and former seventh round pick Geoff Swaim (9 career receptions in three seasons) project to step in as the number one receiver and tight end respectively.
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to explain why a receiving corps that consists of Hurns, Terrance Williams (0 touchdowns in 16 games last season), and Cole Beasley (a dependable option, but far from being a player defenses need to worry about) is worrisome. Defenses can simply stack the box and force Prescott and company to beat them.
Speaking of defenses, it’s doubtful that Dallas will have the kind of unit that can consistently win lower scoring games. The Cowboys ranked just 25th in defensive DVOA last year (although they did finish 15th in weighted DVOA, which suggests their defense improved as the season went along). Sure, they have a couple of noteworthy players (DE DeMarcus Lawrence, LB Sean Lee) and a couple others who may eventually develop into Pro Bowlers (DE Taco Charlton, LB Jaylon Smith). Overall, though, Dallas is still unlikely to have a dominant defense based largely on its performance last year and its lack of significant offseason upgrades.
And to make matters worse, it can’t be neglected how the Cowboys play in an extremely strong conference. Philadelphia is the unquestioned leader in the NFC East, meaning Dallas will almost certainly be jostling among a plethora of playoff-caliber teams (Packers/Vikings, Saints/Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks, etc) for a wild card berth. But forget about the rest of the NFC for a moment: it’s debatable whether Jason Garrett’s squad is even the second best team in its own division. The Giants project to be much improved (healthy Odell Beckham; addition of Saquon Barkley) and while the Redskins are tough to get a read on, Alex Smith should at least lead Washington to a respectable finish.
So where does this leave Dallas? Well, if Elliott breaks Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record like Skip Bayless predicts he will and/or the defense takes a giant step forward, the Cowboys will probably be in good shape.
Neither will happen, though. The Cowboys’ horrific receiving corps will make life too difficult for both Elliott and Prescott; and until proven otherwise, their below-average defense won’t be enough for Dallas to consistently win games against a slate of opponents that features few (if any) cupcakes.
There’s a meltdown scenario, too. Say Elliott were to suffer a significant injury, which is certainly possible given the nature of his position, where would that leave the Cowboys?
I’ll tell you where: picking in the top five of next year’s draft.
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