We still have a couple of months before LeBron James wears purple and gold for the first time and Kawhi Leonard makes his debut north of the border. But now that free agency has essentially ended, the betting hype for the upcoming season is already building.
Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas released its NBA season win totals on Sunday. The Warriors lead the way with an opening line of 62.5 wins, followed by the Celtics (57.5), Rockets (54.5), Raptors (54.5), and 76ers (54.5).
The team that is surely to draw the most attention, though, is the Lakers (48.5). I wonder why? Oh, that’s right, LeBron James took his talents to Southern California this summer, meaning Los Angeles, with its young group of potential stars like Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and (bit of a stretch) Lonzo Ball to complement LeBron, is undoubtedly the most compelling team to watch next season.
But are the new-look Lakers strong enough to win 50 games? Well, they’re coming off a 35-47 campaign in which players like Ingram (16.1 points per game) and Kuzma (also averaged 16.1 ppg) showed flashes of All-Star potential. Given James’ ability to transform teams overnight, a 14-win improvement seems achievable.
However, James might have a hard time leading a largely inexperienced group against a plethora of formidable Western teams on a nightly basis. Just look at how Vegas views the other playoff-caliber clubs, excluding Golden State and Houston: Oklahoma City (50.5 wins), Utah (48.5), Denver (47.5), New Orleans (45.5), Minnesota (44.5), and San Antonio (43.5). This isn’t to say any of these teams will necessarily be better than the Lakers, but they’re all pretty damn good. No nights off, in other words.
It also remains to be seen whether the Lakers’ other new pieces — namely Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and JaVale McGee — will fit in with LeBron and the likes of Ball, Kuzma, and Ingram. The backcourt alone is particularly worrisome. Hardly any of them can shoot! Rondo…well we know he’s not exactly Ray Allen. Stephenson shot .289 from 3pt range last year (177th out of 179 qualified players). And Lonzo (.451 FT%) can’t even make a free throw!
How is LeBron supposed to facilitate when defenders can comfortably leave any of those three players open on the outside? Plus, while the 20-year-old Ingram and 23-year-old Kuzma project to be serviceable sidekicks for LeBron, neither of them are currently on the same level as Kevin Love, who will probably go back to putting up the kind of numbers he had five years ago with the Timberwolves now that he is no longer the Cavaliers’ #2 scoring option. In short, it is debatable whether LeBron’s new supporting cast as constituted is any better than the one he just left behind in Cleveland.
So which way am I leaning with respect to the Lakers’ win total? Surprisingly, I’m siding with the under. I’d feel a lot more confident if I was a Lakers fan if Magic Johnson and company had been able to acquire Kawhi Leonard to complement LeBron. Unless the Lakers acquire someone like Leonard or another All-Star caliber player during the season, LA will be a 45-win team.
Speaking of Leonard, what’s in store for the Raptors next season? 54.5 wins may be a high number, but I’m bullish on Toronto. Despite significant turnover (head coach Dwayne Casey departed; DeMar DeRozan is now in San Antonio), I can’t see the Raptors regressing by six wins after a 60-22 season in which they added the 2014 Finals MVP.
Assuming he is healthy, Leonard (3rd in PER in 2016-17) is clearly an upgrade over DeRozan (29th in PER in 2017-18). Moreover, Toronto has retained its other key pieces, namely point guard Kyle Lowry and center Jonas Valanciunas, and has plenty of young building blocks like emerging defensive stud OG Anunoby and dependable guard Fred VanVleet. Taken together, the Raptors clearly have the talent and depth to once again finish in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Plus, and perhaps most importantly, the rest of the conference is horrendous. Vegas projects eight teams to lose 50 games next season. Six of them are in the East. That’s why I not only like Toronto’s value at over 54.5, but Boston’s value at over 57.5 with the help of a healthy Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward.
As for the 76ers…well, I have a couple theories as to how their season will play out, but I’ll save them for another article.
