NFL Week 12 Picks: Which Contenders Will Be Upset This Sunday?

Week 12 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Records Entering Week 12

Straight Up: 108-52 (.675)               Last Week: 8-6 (.571)               Total: 272-153-2 (.639) 

Spread: 88-64-8 (.575)                   Last Week: 5-8-1 (.393)             Total: 238-173-16 (.576)

Over/Under: 87-70-3 (.553)           Last Week: 6-8 (.429)                Total: 229-195-3 (.540)

Locks: 13-4 (.765)                            Last Week: 1-1 (.500)               Total: 45-10 (.818)

Best Bets: 42-28 (.600)                  Last Week: 5-2 (.714)                 Total: 171-128-1 (.572)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

Thanksgiving Predictions

MINNESOTA 24, Detroit 20          (No Best Bets were placed)

LOS ANGELES 27, Dallas 21            (No Best Bets were placed)

*WASHINGTON 28, New York 13                (No Best Bets were placed) 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

 

Miami Dolphins (4-6) vs New England Patriots (8-2)

Spread: NE -16.5               Over/Under: 48

DVOA: MIA (32) < NE (6)

Public Betting: NE 66%

The Dolphins won’t be a problem for the Pats on Sunday. New England enters the game winners of six straight — and it has been particularly dominant since its bye, having beat Denver and Oakland by a combined total of 74-24. Miami, meanwhile, has allowed an average of 34 points in its last five games. Pats in a blowout.

*NEW ENGLAND 35, Miami 17 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-10) vs Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)

Spread: CIN -7.5                Over/Under: 38

DVOA: CLE (30) < CIN (19)

Public Betting: CIN 60%

I’m sticking with my strategy to never bet on the Browns.

CINCINNATI 23, Cleveland 12 

 

Chicago Bears (3-7) vs Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Spread: PHI -14                 Over/Under: 44

DVOA: CHI (20) < PHI (1)

Public Betting: PHI 78%

Full steam ahead for the Eagles, who have the NFL’s 3rd ranked offense and 4th ranked defense according to Football Outsiders. The Bears are limited offensively, so they shouldn’t provide much resistance.

*Philadelphia 28, CHICAGO 17 

 

Buffalo Bills (5-5) vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Spread: KC -9.5               Over/Under: 46.5

DVOA: BUF (25) < KC (12)

Public Betting: BUF 58%

Sean McDermott will turn back to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback — how will the Bills respond? Pretty well, I bet. Taylor gives Buffalo a much better chance to win. However, I think the Chiefs will be eager to wash away the sour taste from their loss to the lowly Giants last week. They’ll take advantage of a Bills defense that has allowed at least 34 points in each of their past three games.

Kansas City 24, BUFFALO 20 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) vs Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Spread: ATL -9.5                Over/Under: 47.5

DVOA: TB (24) < ATL 17)

Public Betting: ATL 59%

Look, the Bucs were 2-6 with Jameis Winston as their starter…now they’re 2-0 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is probably too tough of a matchup for Tampa, though. Atlanta seems to have turned things around, as its offense has converted 77% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns over the past three weeks. The Falcons will keep their win-streak intact.

ATLANTA 30, Tampa Bay 20

 

 

Carolina Panthers (7-3) vs New York Jets (4-6)

Spread: CAR -5.5                 Over/Under: 40

DVOA: CAR (9) > NYJ (27)

Public Betting: CAR 81%

Cam Newton was outstanding in his last outing, a 45-21 win over Miami. But I’ve always maintained that Newton is the most erratic player in the NFL. Take what happened earlier this season, for instance. After two outstanding performances against New England and Detroit, Newton threw five interceptions in Carolina’s subsequent two losses to Philadelphia and Chicago. Now that he’s dealing with a thumb injury, I think the Panthers will be surprised by a Jets team that has recently played teams like the Patriots and Falcons tough.

NEW YORK 24, Carolina 20 

 

Tennessee Titans (6-4) vs Indianapolis Colts (3-7)

Spread: TEN -3.5                Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: TEN (22) > IND (31)

Public Betting: TEN 57%

I’ve been down on the Andrew Luck-less Colts all season. How could someone not be? Indy’s offense ranks 27th in yards per play and its defense has allowed the most points per game. As shaky as the Titans have been this year, I like them to move to 7-4.

TENNESSEE 24, Indianapolis 19 

 

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) vs San Francisco 49ers (1-9)

Spread: SEA -6.5                Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: SEA (10) > SF (29)

Public Betting: SEA 78%

At full-strength, the Seahawks are the far superior team. Only problem for Seattle, though, is that it’s severely depleted. We know Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Cliff Avril will definitely miss this game, but other key players like tight end Jimmy Graham, linebacker Bobby Wagner, and offensive tackle Duane Brown may sit out due to injury as well. I’m not reckless enough to take C.J. Beathard and the Niners to actually beat Russell Wilson and company, but I like San Francisco to cover.

Seattle 27, SAN FRANCISCO 22

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) vs Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

Spread: JAC -5               Over/Under: 38

DVOA: JAC (8) > ARZ (23)

Public Betting: JAC 77%

The writing is on the wall for an upset. For starters, the Jaguars will be without their best player, safety Jalen Ramsey. And if their defense isn’t as formidable without Ramsey, I don’t trust Blake Bortles and a Jacksonville offense that ranks only 20th in points per drive to pick up the slack. Moreover, Blaine Gabbert — yes, Blaine Gabbert — isn’t terrible. He threw 3 touchdowns and posted a 92.4 quarterback rating against the Texans last week. So I’ll go out on a limb and take Arizona to not only cover, but prevail outright in a low scoring game.

ARIZONA 20, Jacksonville 16 

 

Denver Broncos (3-7) vs Oakland Raiders (4-6)

Spread: OAK -4.5                Over/Under: 43

DVOA: DEN (26) < OAK (21)

Public Betting: OAK 69%

The Broncos will make their third change at quarterback this season by inserting 2016 first round pick Paxton Lynch into the lineup. But there’s no reason to have any faith in him, and there’s no reason to have any faith in Denver, who has lost six games in a row by an average margin of 16.7 points. Oakland should get back on track this week.

OAKLAND 24, Denver 17

 

New Orleans Saints (8-2) vs Los Angeles Rams (7-4)

Spread: LA (-2)                Over/Under: 53.5

DVOA: NO (2) > LA (3)

Public Betting: NO 66%

I think New Orleans is the better team, but I like Los Angeles to win on Sunday. Main reason why: the Saints are depleted defensively. Likely Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore will miss this game with an ankle injury. That’s a big loss for New Orleans’ secondary considering it is facing the league’s 4th-ranked passing offense. On top of that, the Saints will also be without starting DE Alex Okafor and potentially starters A.J. Klein and Kenny Vacarro as well. Simply put, too many injuries for New Orleans will allow the LA offense to have a big day.

LOS ANGELES 27, New Orleans 23 

 

Green Bay Packers (5-5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)

Spread: PIT -14                Over/Under: 43

DVOA: GB (15) < PIT (4)

Public Betting: PIT 70%

Pittsburgh is coming off its most impressive win of the season: a 40-17 shellacking of Tennessee. Naturally everyone is going to take them to build on that victory and trample a struggling Green Bay team. I am one of those people, although I do think the Packers will surprise and cover the large spread.

*Pittsburgh 30, GREEN BAY 17 

 

*Monday Night Prediction 

Houston Texans (4-6) vs Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Spread: BAL -7             Over/Under: 38

DVOA: HOU (18) < BAL (7)

Public Betting: BAL 62%

Baltimore is quietly one of the ten best teams in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. That honor obviously has nothing to do with its anemic offense, but everything to do with its stout defense and stellar special teams. The Texans could be without their two top receivers, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, due to injury, so I don’t see how they’ll score against the Ravens’ 3rd-ranked scoring defense.

BALTIMORE 20, Houston 10 

 

And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Twelve…

• TEASER: CHICAGO (+20.5) over Philadelphia & BUFFALO (+16) over Kansas City
• TEASER: CINCINNATI (-1) over Cleveland & ATLANTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
• Buffalo vs Kansas City UNDER 46.5
• NEW YORK (+5.5) over Carolina
• Jacksonville vs Arizona UNDER 38
• OAKLAND (-220) over Denver
• PARLAY: NEW ENGLAND (-2000), PHILADELPHIA (-1100), PITTSBURGH (-1200), & BALTIMORE (-320)

*Note: There will be no Sunday Recap tomorrow because I will be traveling — it will return next week!