Week Nine Edition
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Last Week: 4-1 (.800)
2017: 24-19 (.558)
*Total: 96-78-2 (.551)
*Total dates back to last season
Home team in italics
#11 Oklahoma State (-7) over #22 West Virginia
I’m not a proponent of taking home underdogs, but here is why I like Oklahoma State to cover on the road. Not only do the Cowboys rank third in the nation in yards per play, but they rank 19th in opponent yards per play. Translation: they have an excellent offense and a competent defense. West Virginia’s defense, meanwhile, ranks a putrid 115th in yards allowed per game. The Mountaineers may have the offense to hang with Oklahoma State, but I’ll take the better defense on the road to win this game by more than a touchdown.
Florida (+14) over #3 Georgia
Upset pick of the week: the Gators will not only cover the spread, but defeat their rivals in Jacksonville at the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.” To be clear, I’m far more confident in Florida covering than I am beating the third-ranked Bulldogs straight-up. Despite receiving Georgia receiving close to 80% of public support, the spread has dropped from -14 to -13.5 at certain sports books. Sharp money, in other words, is all over the Gators. And I’ll take them to beat Georgia outright because…well, it’s college football!
#4 TCU (-6.5) over #25 Iowa State
Another home underdog? Yes, I’m once again ignoring one of my top betting strategies because I love this TCU defense. In last week’s 43-0 win over Kansas, the Horned Frogs held their third opponent to under 10 points in a game. On the season, they rank 13th in the country points allowed. Iowa State’s offense isn’t spectacular, as they rank just 50th in the nation in yards per play. I’ll take TCU to win by ten points.
#9 Notre Dame (-7.5) over #14 N.C. State
The Fighting Irish are one of only six teams in the nation–along with Alabama, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, and Wisconsin–to rank in the top twenty in both yards per play and opponent yards per play. The talk of them making the College Football Playoff is real. Moreover, does N.C. State deserve to be ranked in the top fifteen? The Wolfpack’s two most impressive wins were over two of the nation’s most overrated teams in Florida State and Louisville. I like Notre Dame to move to 7-1.
UCLA (+18) over #12 Washington
Washington’s defense is absolutely outstanding: it has yet to allow over 16 points in a game this season. With that said, the eighteen-point spread seems to be a little disrespectful to a UCLA offense that is averaging close to 40 points per game (38.3, 15th in the nation). The Huskies will win, but the Bruins will cover.
Game of the Week
#2 Penn State (+6.5) over #6 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have been dominant since their early-season loss to Oklahoma, as not a single one of their last five games has been decided by fewer than 31 points. It’s also understood that the Horseshoe usually provides a terrific home-field advantage, loss to Oklahoma aside. But does Penn State really deserve to be the underdog in this matchup? The Nittany Lions are led by Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards with 1,478. And let’s not overlook their superb defense, which has allowed the fewest points per game in the country this season with 9.6.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that Penn State is also terrific against the pass (1st in opponent yards per pass attempt). That’s bad news for Ohio State, as we’ve seen quarterback J.T. Barrett struggle against stellar defenses (i.e. last year’s CFP semifinal against Clemson). The Nittany Lions’ rushing attack should allow them to maintain possession throughout the game, and its defense is likely to contain the Buckeyes’ typically explosive offense. I’m confidently picking Penn State to cover the spread, and I’ll even take them to knock Ohio State out of the playoff race by winning outright.
