NFL Week 8 Picks: Who Will Win Sunday’s Crucial NFC East Battle in D.C?

Week 8 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

****Note – Yards per Play Differential Rankings are calculated by subtracting Yards per Play from Opponent Yards per Play

 

Records Entering Week 8

Straight Up: 72-34 (.679)               Last Week: 11-4 (.733)               Total: 236-135-2 (.635)

Spread: 68-32-6 (.670)                   Last Week: 9-4-2 (.667)             Total: 218-141-14 (.603)

Over/Under: 62-42-2 (.594)           Last Week: 7-8 (.467)                Total: 204-167-2 (.550)

Locks: 9-3 (.750)                            Last Week: 1-0 (1.000)               Total: 41-9 (.820)

Best Bets: 31-15 (.674)                  Last Week: 4-1 (.800)                 Total: 160-115-1 (.582)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

*Prediction for TNF: MIAMI 23, Baltimore 17      (No Best Bets were placed)

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

Minnesota Vikings (5-2) vs Cleveland Browns (0-7)

Spread: MIN -9.5             Over/Under: 38.5

DVOA: MIN (5) > CLE (31)

YPP Differential: MIN (5) > CLE (21)

Public Betting: MIN 71%

The NFL really should make an effort to improve the matchups for these London affairs, as this early-morning kickoff will likely be be another lopsided contest. Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer has been awful  in his debut season: he currently leads the NFL in interceptions and has been pulled mid-game during his two most recent starts. Minnesota’s 5th-ranked scoring defense should have a field day.

MINNESOTA 24, Cleveland 10 

 

 

Chicago Bears (3-4) vs New Orleans Saints (4-2)

Spread: NO -9              Over/Under: 47.5

DVOA: CHI (27) < NO (6)

YPP Differential: CHI (30) < NO (14)

Public Betting: NO 59%

It was evident in their 17-3 victory over Carolina last week that the Bears are not as bad as people projected. Chicago’s strategy to pound running back Jordan Howard, who ranks 5th in rushing yards with 560, and trust their serviceable defense has clearly been effective, particularly against teams that may be superior on paper. The Bears will hang around, but I’ll ultimately take Drew Brees and New Orleans’ top-five offense to prevail at home.

New Orleans 24, CHICAGO 17

 

 

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) vs New York Jets (3-4)

Spread: ATL -6             Over/Under: 44.5

DVOA: ATL (20) > NYJ (26)

YPP Differential: ATL (1) > NYJ (20)

Public Betting: ATL 72%

Surprisingly, the Falcons have the NFL’s best yards per play differential (+1.1) through seven weeks. Perhaps this calls the legitimacy of that stat into question, but considering that it is still a highly-valued stat by Vegas sharp bettors, I think it’s a sign that Atlanta is poised for a turnaround.

With that said, the Falcons might have trouble snapping their three-game losing streak. For starters, it actually bodes well for the pesky Jets that they’re a sizable public underdog in this matchup. Here’s the key stat of the week: teams receiving less  than 30% of public support, such as New York, are a terrific 22-8-1 against the spread this season. In other words, when the public is overly confident, it is often completely  wrong, as evidenced by Tennessee (71% support), Carolina (75%), and Denver (70%) all failing to cover the spread last week. Plus, with rain in the forecast, Atlanta’s struggling pass offense might remain out of rhythm.

Nonetheless…I’ll take the Falcons to get off the schneid.

Atlanta 24, NEW YORK 21

 

 

Carolina Panthers (4-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)

Spread: TB -1.5              Over/Under: 46

DVOA: CAR (17) > TB (24)

YPP Differential: CAR (17) > TB (18)

Public Betting: CAR 67%

Though the Buccaneers have lost three straight, they have little to be concerned about offensively: Tampa Bay ranks second in the NFL in yards per game. The problem is that its defense can’t stop anybody, as evidenced by how it has allowed 30+ points each of the past two weeks. The goods for Tampa, though, is that the Panthers are erratic offensively, ranking just 23rd in yards per play despite having multiple games this season in which they’ve performed quite well. And since Cam Newton still seems to be in a bad mood, I’ll take Tampa to top Carolina.

TAMPA BAY 28, Carolina 24

 

 

San Francisco 49ers (0-7) vs Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)

Spread: PHI -12.5               Over/Under: 45

DVOA: SF (30) < PHI (4)

YPP Differential: SF (28) < PHI (16)

Public Betting: PHI 56%

Teams like Philadelphia that rank in the top of DVOA are 5-0 this season against teams that rank in the bottom ten (i.e. San Francisco). Translation: good teams beat bad teams. The Eagles will move to 7-1.

*PHILADELPHIA 27, San Francisco 13

 

 

Oakland Raiders (3-4) vs Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Spread: BUF -2.5             Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: OAK (19) < BUF (14)

YPP Differential: OAK (22) > BUF (25) 

Public Betting: OAK 66%

This is potentially a tough spot for Oakland coming off a season-saving win last Thursday night over Kansas City. The Raiders must make a cross-country trip for this game in Buffalo that will feel like a 10 am start time considering kickoff is at 1 pm. Plus, the Bills are more formidable at home, where they have yet to lose this year and have posted at least a .500 record in every season since 2010. With that said, I give Derek Carr and Oakland’s offense an edge against an albeit tough Buffalo defense; and I think Jack del Rio’s squad will benefit from having an extra few days of preparation.

OAKLAND 24, Buffalo 20

 

 

Indianapolis Colts (2-5) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

Spread: CIN -10.5             Over/Under: 42

DVOA: IND (32) < CIN (18)

YPP Differential: IND (32) < CIN (12)

Public Betting: IND 52%

The Colts’ 2-5 record is deceptive. Not only have their two wins come against the only two winless teams in football, Cleveland and San Francisco, but they have the worst point differential (-103) in the league. Meanwhile, the Bengals may not be great, but it’s likely that they’re better than their 2-4 record indicates, considering they’ve played the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule through seven weeks. I like Cincinnati’s defense, which has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per drive, to lead the way to victory.

CINCINNATI 27, Indianapolis 16 

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) vs New England Patriots (5-2)

Spread: NE -7              Over/Under: 48

DVOA: LAC (21) < NE (11)

YPP Differential: LAC (13) > NE (24)

Public Betting: NE 64%

The Chargers have a key edge in the trenches, and therefore a better chance than you might think to pull an upset in Foxboro. Los Angeles’ pass-rush is one of the best in football, as edge rushers Melvin Ingram (8.5 sacks) and Joey Bosa (7.5) rank 4th and 6th respectively in sacks. These two will be tough to handle for New England’s offensive line, which has had its struggles keeping Tom Brady upright this season. And on the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ line has been able to effectively protect Phillip Rivers, as it has allowed just the sixth fewest sacks per game. That too is bad news for the Pats because their pass rush isn’t very formidable outside of Trey Flowers (3.5 sacks).

Combined with Dont’a Hightower’s absence, New England might have to grind out another victory. But with the 3-4 Chargers having to travel across the country for this 1:00 kickoff, the Patriots and their top-ranked offense are still a good bet to ultimately win at home.

New England 27, LOS ANGELES 23

 

 

Houston Texans (3-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (4-2) 

Spread: SEA -6.5              Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: HOU (9) < SEA (8)

YPP Differential: HOU (6) > SEA (11)

Public Betting: HOU 51%

Deshaun Watson has transformed Houston’s offense, but I don’t think his presence will be enough to lead the Texans past the Seahawks. While Watson should benefit from the return of All-Pro tackle Duane Brown from a holdout, the rookie has not seen a defense quite like Seattle’s. In their last three games, the Seahawks have allowed only 11.7 points per game. And with Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman patrolling the secondary, I doubt Watson will be able to successfully launch long-bombs to Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins.

Seattle’s poor offensive line still makes them a shaky bet to dominate a competent team like Houston, but the Seahawks shouldn’t have too much trouble moving to 5-2.

Seattle 23, HOUSTON 17

 

 

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) vs Washington Redskins (3-3)

Spread: DAL -2                Over/Under: 48

DVOA: DAL (12) < WSH (10)

YPP Differential: DAL (5) > WSH (7)

Public Betting: DAL 71%

The majority of the public likes Dallas to win this crucial NFC East battle, but the Redskins are actually the better bet to emerge victorious. Kirk Cousins is once again proving he is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL: after finishing the last two seasons ranked 6th in Total QBR, the former fourth-round pick has a career-high 67.6 QBR through six games. No surprise, therefore, that Washington ranks highly in a number of key offensive statistics, such as yards per play (6th) and points per drive (9th). Running back Chris Thompson, who is first among running backs with 366 receiving yards, and tight end Jordan Reed will be too much to handle for Dallas’ 22nd-ranked scoring defense.

WASHINGTON 31, Dallas 27

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) vs Detroit Lions (3-3)

Spread: PIT -3               Over/Under: 46

DVOA: PIT (1) > DET (13)

YPP Differential: PIT (2) > DET (29)

Public Betting: DET 51%

There’s a wider disparity between these teams than you might think. Led by a second-ranked defense that has surrendered just under 260 yards per game, Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best yards per play differentials (+1.0). Detroit, on the other hand, ranks just 29th in this category. The Lions are overly-reliant on Matthew Stafford, as their rushing offense ranks just 27th in yards per carry. Thus, the Steelers’ defense will once again provide a decisive edge and allow Pittsburgh to move to 6-2.

PITTSBURGH 24, Detroit 17

 

 

And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Eight…

• TEASER: MINNESOTA (-3) over Cleveland & PHILADELPHIA (-6) over San Francisco
• TEASER: CHICAGO (+15.5) over New Orleans & ATLANTA (-0.5) over New York
• TEASER: Los Angeles vs New England OVER 41.5 & HOUSTON (+13) over Seattle
• WASHINGTON (+2) over Dallas