Nothing brings me more joy than watching the New England Patriots. So, with the preseason essentially over (Bill Belichick usually sits the starters in the final exhibition game), it’s time that I finally provide a thorough analysis of the upcoming Patriots season replete with a few predictions for what to expect from the four-time Super Bowl champions.
Offensive Outlook
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. That’s why we as Patriots fans should be thankful that a future first-ballot Hall of Famer continues to suit up after sixteen seasons. Not only that, but there is little reason to think that Brady won’t continue to play at a high-level once he returns to the field in Week 5. After capturing his fourth ring in 2014, the two-time MVP was even better last year, posting improved marks in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, interceptions and quarterback rating. If reports out of Foxboro this preseason are any indication, it appears the slowdown that everyone was anticipating, particularly after a so-so 2013 season from Brady, won’t happen for at least another year.
Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss Jimmy Garoppolo. No one knows exactly how he’ll perform in the season’s first four weeks, but I’m actually less optimistic about Garoppolo than most people are. Admittedly, some of my criticism of him is a little unfair–obviously he isn’t going to be as precise as a future Hall of Famer. Given his inexperience, he’s also certainly due for his share of “rookie” mistakes like any other quarterback is, too. However, I think his pocket presence is shaky and I doubt he will have enough of a rapport with Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman to have the Patriots offense firing on all cylinders.
With that said, let’s remember when projecting Garoppolo’s performance that he has a good team around him. The aforementioned Gronkowski is the best tight end in football and the addition of former Bears tight end Martellus Bennett gives Garoppolo another imposing red zone threat. Plus, with the trio of Danny Amendola, the newly-acquired Chris Hogan, and, most importantly, Julian Edelman, the third-year pro has more than enough options to throw to. He’ll also have a versatile group alongside him in the backfield. LeGarrette Blount has proven to be fairly reliable over the past three seasons and James White and Brandon Bolden have showed that they are capable of making plays in the receiving game.
The main question for the New England offense is their offensive line. Fortunately, long-time offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia is back. They could’ve used him last year when the Patriots were eaten alive by the likes of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware in that frustrating AFC Championship loss. The problem, however, is that injuries to Sebastian Vollmer, Shaq Mason, and Jonathan Cooper as well as the departure of center Bryan Stork leave the Patriots line in a far weaker position than they were entering the season. They’ve relied enough on inexperienced players up front as is–now that they must battle with depth issues as well.
A leaky line won’t be as much of a problem for Brady to deal with as it will be for Garoppolo. However, as we saw at times last year, the Patriots offense can’t reach its full potential even with Brady if he doesn’t have enough time and space to find his weapons.
Defensive Outlook
Let’s start with the good news: New England has its two best middle linebackers of the Belichick era in Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower. Yes, even better than the likes of Tedi Bruschi and Jerod Mayo that helped lead New England to multiple Super Bowl appearances. Collins is an athletic freak-of-nature. Did anyone else see him track down Cam Newton on a third-and-long to a prevent a first down the other night? His contributions to New England’s defense may not have received the recognition they deserve (yet), but with another outstanding year, everyone should consider Collins as one of the league’s three best inside linebackers. As for Hightower, he is extremely disruptive against the run and though he doesn’t have quite the coverage ability Collins has, he is arguably an even better pass rusher.
Moreover, the Patriots secondary looks poised to have another impressive campaign. New England finished 7th in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt in 2015 thanks to a Pro Bowl season from Malcolm Butler and another solid year from Devin McCourty (when he was healthy). Unlike three-four years ago, the Patriots are also much deeper in the defensive backfield. Safety Patrick Chung has morphed into an above-average strong safety and corner Logan Ryan, who I’ll discuss in more detail shortly, is one of the better number two corners in the NFL. Fourth year safety Duron Harmon and rookie Cyrus Jones should make an impact as well.
The one area of concern for the Pats D is their pass rush. Their defensive line looks poised to be an effective run-stopping unit with the help of lane cloggers Malcolm Brown and Alan Branch. But after trading Chandler Jones in the offseason and with injuries to Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard, the Patriots already thin group of edge rushers might have even more trouble getting after the quarterback. Collins and Hightower must continue to make the most of their blitzes and they’ll need the likes of Chris Long and second-year defensive end Trey Flowers to step up.
Special Teams Outlook
New England has finished the last five seasons in the top five in special teams according to Football Outsiders. That really shouldn’t be surprising. Missed extra point in the AFC Championship game aside, Stephen Gostkowski has been one of the most efficient kickers in the league and special teams ace Matthew Slater provides assurance on kick and punt coverage like no other. Particularly after drafting former Alabama star Cyrus Jones to return punts, there’s little reason to think the Patriots won’t have one of the NFL’s better special teams units in 2016.
Breakout Candidates
1 Logan Ryan, CB
Now that teams know that Malcolm Butler is no one-hit wonder, I bet offenses shy away from him when they attack the Patriots defense through the air. Fortunately, Ryan–who plays opposite Butler–is up to the challenge. The strongest component of Ryan’s game has been his tackling ability (only eight missed tackles in 178 career attempts according to Pro Football Focus), but let’s not underrate his coverage skills. He had five interceptions as a rookie in 2013 and four last year. I bet he tops his career-high in picks in 2016 as he earns his first trip to the Pro Bowl.
2 Chris Long, DE
After dealing with injuries and losing playing time to some of the Rams’ other talented defensive linemen, I think Long will be a worthy replacement to Chandler Jones at defensive end. He’s unbelievably imposing, for one thing, and I think once Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich return from injury, Long will avoid drawing any double teams. Plus, when he was healthy for a four-year stretch starting in 2010, he averaged ten sacks a year, including 8.5 as recently as 2013. If he stays on the field, the newly-acquired Long will be as impactful as Jabaal Sheard was last year.
3 Tyler Gaffney, RB
Not only do the Patriots take a running back by committee approach, but Bill Belichick typically casts away backs who don’t protect the ball. For those reasons, I could see Gaffney getting some quality playing time this season and making the most of it. He’s reminded me of former Patriots RB Jonas Gray this preseason with his ability to hit the hole decisively. If he gets an opportunity, I can see him having a Gray-like breakout game when it really matters as well.
Schedule Breakdown
Week 1: @Arizona Loss 24-16
Garoppolo’s first assignment isn’t an easy one. The Pats offense will struggle against the swarming Cardinals.
Week 2: vs Miami Win 30-17
The Patriots defense has feasted on Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins in the past, particularly at home. That will provide a spark for New England to secure their first win of the year.
Week 3: vs Houston Win 20-14
The Texans defense should make things interesting, but, once again, I like Malcolm Butler and the Pats defense to contain DeAndre Hopkins and the Houston offense.
Week 4: vs Buffalo Loss 23-13
Rex Ryan has made things difficult for Tom Brady before. What might he have in store for Garoppolo? Pats drop a rare one at home.
Week 5: @Cleveland Win 27-20
Let’s not forget that Brady might be a little rusty in his return and that the trap games like this one do exist (New England was upset by Cleveland in 2010 after all). Pats still prevail.
Week 6: vs Cincinnati Win 27-23
Andy Dalton and the Bengals won’t be embarrassed like they were last time they visited Gillette, but Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots offense finally starts kicking into gear.
Week 7: @Pittsburgh Loss 24-21
Tough matchup anytime a team must go into Heinz Field. Antonio Brown and the Steelers prove to be too much.
Week 8: @Buffalo Win 34-10
The Patriots are always good for one Rex Ryan-ass kicking a year.
Week 10: vs Seattle Win 31-24
Circle this one as the game of the year. This is one of those circumstances when home field makes the difference.
Week 11: @San Francisco Win 26-6
Chip Kelly got lucky last year. Not happening this time around. Collins and the Pats defense shines.
Week 12: @New York Jets Loss 23-20
Ehh, just so I don’t look biased.
Week 13: vs Los Angeles Win 32-14
Could be tricky considering the Rams have a strong defense. Their offense is weak though, and Brady and the Pats have succeeded against strong units before.
Week 14: vs Baltimore Win 24-19
Brady’s got to have at least one signature drive per season. Let’s say it happens here on Monday Night Football.
Week 15: @Denver Win 27-17
Denver’s defense will be tough once again, but I think it’s more likely than not that Trevor Siemian–or whoever is under center for the Broncos–loses in their first matchup against a Belichick defense.
Week 16: vs New York Jets Win 29-17
Christmas comes a day early as the Patriots squash the Jets’ playoff hopes.
Week 17: @Miami Win 42-24
There won’t be a slip-up in Miami this time around. I’m banking on better health at the end of the year as the Patriots enter the playoffs with momentum.
Five Predictions for the 2016 New England Patriots Season
1 Garoppolo performs erratically in first four games
As I mentioned earlier, I’m skeptical that Garoppolo has the pocket presence, the accuracy, and the chemistry with the Patriots receivers to thrive. That doesn’t mean I think Garoppolo will be terrible–he’ll have at least one game where he plays extremely well. However, since he’s going to be playing a few very good defenses, I think the Patriots offense will be frustrating to watch at times in September.
2 New England sends three players to the All-Pro team
Two of the names are obvious. Rob Gronkowski is basically a lock as long as he stays healthy and Stephen Gostkowski is another good bet to be the league’s top kicker again as well. The third name is more of a stretch: Jamie Collins. He has competition from players like Luke Kuechly at the middle linebacker position, but since Collins impacts the game in so many ways, I like him to put up a monster stat line in 2016 and finally be recognized as one of the NFL’s elite players.
3 The Patriots will finish in the Top 10 of offense, defense, and special teams in DVOA
New England almost did this last year, finishing 5th in offense and special teams but only 12th in defense. Despite the fact that Brady will miss a quarter of the season and even with some questions on the defensive side of the ball, I bet the Patriots will be one of the NFL’s only teams to achieve this feat.
4 Brady still manages to throw 28 touchdowns in only 12 games
To reach 28 TD, Brady must throw 2.5 per game once he returns to the field in Week 5. That’s more than manageable, particularly when you consider how motivated he will be to force Goodell to hand him another Lombardi trophy.
5 The Ultimate Prediction
I have the Patriots finishing 12-4, but for the second year in a row that won’t be enough to earn the AFC’s top seed. That honor will belong to the Steelers, who I like to beat the Patriots in late October and thus own the tiebreaker. Nonetheless, I expect New England to appear in a record-breaking sixth consecutive AFC Championship game. I’m not necessarily saying they will beat the formidable Steelers on the road….but judging by the fact that I’ve picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl each of the past thirteen seasons, I think you might know which way I’m leaning.
Oh, what the hell! New England vs Seattle in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. Down by four with precious seconds dwindling off the clock, Pete Carroll calls a zone read for Russell Wilson on the goal line, only for him to have it stripped and recovered by former undrafted free agent linebacker Ramon Humber. Funny how things have a way of repeating themselves.
Brady photo courtesy of Getty Images; Hightower and Collins photo courtesy of Getty Images; Gostkowski photo courtesy of Getty Images;
