*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network
Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016
Straight Up: 10-5 (.667) Straight Up: 103-71-2 (.591) Total: 450-256-4 (.637)
Spread: 6-9 (.400) Spread: 85-81-10 (.511) Total: 388-294-28 (.566)
Over/Under: 9-6 (.600) Over/Under: 97-77-2 (.557) Total: 389-313-8 (.554)
Best Bets: 3-1 (.700) Best Bets: 34-27 (.557) Total: 240-177-1 (.578)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs
CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread
Prediction for TNF: NEW ORLEANS 31 Dallas 20
*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my predictions
Marquee Matchups
Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1) vs New England Patriots (8-3)
4:25 ET FOX Spread: NE -5 O/U: 49.5 DVOA: MIN (12) < NE (8)
There is a sizable gap between these two offenses. While the Vikings have a few explosive skill-position players, including potential All-Pro receiver Adam Thielen (league-leading 93 receptions), they surprisingly rank only 25th in the NFL in yards per drive (31.0). Not only do the Patriots rank 9th in this same category, but they’ve been much more prolific at home, averaging 6.2 yards per play in Foxboro compared to only 5.5 on the road.
Minnesota’s defense will have to rise to the occasion. They could be up to the task, considering they rank 6th in defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. The key question, though, will be whether the Vikings can win the turnover battle because New England has not given the ball away since Week 7. But I don’t see Kirk Cousins out-playing Brady. Not at Gillette, where the Patriots are 19-3 with Brady under center since the start of the 2016 season.
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Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1)
8:20 ET NBC Spread: PIT -3 O/U: 51.5 DVOA: LAC (4) > PIT (7)
This projects to be a close game on paper. The Chargers have the higher offensive and defensive DVOA, as well as a superior yards per play differential.
Games aren’t played on paper, though. Surprisingly, I actually don’t think this game will even be close. Main reason why: Pittsburgh possesses a massive edge in the trenches. The Steelers topped Pro Football Focus’ most recent offensive line power rankings. You’d have to scroll for a while until you find the Chargers on this same list. That’s because they only ranked 28th. Don’t expect Philip Rivers to have much time to throw against a Pittsburgh defense that has the most sacks in the league through twelve weeks with 39.
Combined with Melvin Gordon’s absence due to a knee injury, this is going to be a long night for the Chargers at Heinz Field.
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Upset Pick of the Day
Baker and the Browns (+210) will end Houston’s eight-game winning streak
The Texans deserve credit for rebounding after an 0-3 start, but they’re due for a letdown considering they have largely been beating up on mediocre teams. Wait, isn’t Cleveland a mediocre team? Not anymore! Cleveland is rolling offensively, averaging 6.4 yards per play (t-7th in NFL) over the past three weeks. And let’s not sleep on the Browns’ defense either, as they rank 8th in defensive DVOA. Look for Myles Garrett (10 sacks) to feast on Houston’s 27th-ranked offensive line and lead the Browns to a narrow victory.
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Best Bets
Baltimore vs Atlanta UNDER 48.5
The Falcons’ offense has struggled of late (17.3 ppg in last three games). They’re going to have another tough day against Baltimore’s stingy D (1st in opponent yards per play). As for how Lamar Jackson will fare in his first road start…well, I certainly don’t have high expectations. Look for this to stay under 48.5 by at least a few points.
Teaser: CINCINNATI (+12.5) over Denver & GREEN BAY (-7) over Arizona
I don’t know what to expect from Jeff Driskel either. But recency bias has inflated the Broncos/Bengals line a bit, so I’ll take advantage by putting Cincinnati in a teaser along with Green Bay, who I like to beat a lousy Arizona team by at least two-scores.
Miami (-190) over Buffalo
The Dolphins opened as 7-point favorites, but have been bet down to -3.5. As a result, their odds to win straight up have dropped from -280 to -190. In general, however, the oddsmakers tend to be accurate when setting opening odds. The main reason odds fluctuate is often due to emotional public bettors. That is likely the case here given how Buffalo is riding a two-game winning streak, while Miami has lost four out of five. I’ll take advantage of this over-reaction by betting the Dolphins.
Chicago vs NY Giants UNDER 44.5
The Bears’ defensive front will feast on the Giants’ poor offensive line. On the other side of the ball, I don’t trust Chase Daniel. He only produced 16 points for Chicago last week against a poor Lions’ defense. Hammer the under.
Cleveland (+5.5) over Houston
This should be a defensive-oriented game that is decided late. Plenty of value on the underdog Browns.
Pittsburgh (-3) over LA Chargers
LA is in for a rude awakening at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Pittsburgh should dominate in all phases of the game.
Full List of Picks for Sunday’s Slate *Spread pick in BOLD
CLEVELAND 23 Houston 20 Spread: HOU -5.5 O/U: 47.5
BALTIMORE 24 Atlanta 21 Spread: ATL -2 O/U: 48.5
INDIANAPOLIS 27 Jacksonville 17 Spread: IND -4 O/U: 47
LA RAMS 34 Detroit 20 Spread: LAR -10 O/U: 47
TAMPA BAY 31 Carolina 27 Spread: CAR -3 O/U: 54
Green Bay 27 ARIZONA 16 Spread: GB -14 O/U: 42.5
Denver 23 CINCINNATI 20 Spread: DEN -5.5 O/U: 44.5
MIAMI 20 Buffalo 13 Spread: MIA -3.5 O/U: 40
Chicago 13 NY GIANTS 10 Spread: CHI -4 O/U: 44.5
KANSAS CITY 38 Oakland 13 Spread: KC -14 O/U: 55.5
Seattle 25 SAN FRANCISCO 16 Spread: SEA -10 O/U: 45.5
Tennessee 27 NY JETS 20 Spread: TEN -8 O/U: 40.5
NEW ENGLAND 30 Minnesota 23 Spread: NE -5 O/U: 49.5
PITTSBURGH 34 LA Chargers 17 Spread: PIT -3 O/U: 51.5
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