After Terry Rozier’s slow start to the season it’s time to take stock of the situation and how this ultimately unfolds. He is averaging 8 points per game at a putrid 36% clip and has looked generally disinterested in creating for anyone but himself. It is fair to say this start to the season has been a complete disaster for him.
Wasn’t this bound to happen though? I mean Ainge has shut all the trade rumors down, Terry has said all the right things, but let’s just look at it logically. He’s a young, ball dominant guard. On top of that he is fiercely competitive, which is what makes him so great. But are we completely sure we aren’t just seeing Reggie Jackson from his days in Oklahoma City? Both young, competitive backup point guards behind bonafide stars fighting for an increased role. They play similar styles of aggressive basketball and make for great change of pace players. Let’s take a closer look at the two in their first four years in the league Last year Rozier averaged around 11-3-5, but the real story was the postseason where he dazzled averaging 16-6-5. While he certainly gave the Celtics what they needed during that magical stretch, his eFG% was 50% which would have placed him at the bottom of the top 100 of players during the regular season. For his career he currently holds a True Shooting Percentage of 48% making him far from efficient. Reggie Jackson’s four years in Oklahoma City produced incredibly similar advanced metric numbers.
Rozier
Jackson
Whether it’s their TSP, PER, or even usage rate; we see two players whose careers have a lot of easy comparisons.Take a look at their advanced metrics over the course of their first four seasons (albeit early in Rozier’s 4th). Unfortunately for Rozier he simply isn’t going to have the freedom to be the volume scorer the way he was last season and everything we’ve seen from him in his first four seasons suggests that is the only way for him to be effective. This season has been a microcosm of that thus far. Last year he saw career highs in most categories, but has reverted back to his averages from his first two seasons.
While it is still early it begs the question. Should the Celtics move on from Scary Terry? He is a restricted free-agent at the end of the season and regardless of his play this season he is due for a hefty raise this offseason. The Celtics will of course have the opportunity to match, but will they want to? Kyrie has committed to resigning and will command a max deal. Reggie Jackson was handed a 5-year 80 million dollar deal after his 4th season and the Celtics would be looking at a number similar or even bigger in a point guard needy market in 2019. So should the Celtics test the market for their young guard?
To me this is a no brainer. The Celtics are where they are today because of savvy, forward thinking management. Holding onto Rozier for this season only to ultimately lose him in free agency goes against everything we have seen from Danny Ainge thus far. Struggling or not the Celtics have glaring deficiencies in efficient scoring as well as rebounding. The last thing they need on this team right now is another player who needs the ball in their hands. Finding a consistent spot up three point shooter or a rebounding big who will be comfortable coming off the bench would give the Celtics more definition in their bench players roles. This ultimately help an offense that has been plagued by hero-ball for stretches during their shaky start to the season. Look for the Celtics to move Rozier once he starts to regain some of his value.
