Week Seven Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 12-3 (.800)           Straight Up: 52-39-2 (.570)     Total: 399-224-4 (.639) 

Spread: 11-4 (.733)                    Spread: 48-38-7 (.553)            Total: 351-251-25 (.580)      

Over/Under: 9-6 (.600)           Over/Under: 49-43-1 (.532)      Total: 341-279-7 (.549)

Best Bets: 3-4 (.429)               Best Bets: 15-17 (.469)              Total: 221-167-1 (.569) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: DENVER 24  Arizona 17 

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

New England Patriots (4-2) vs Chicago Bears (3-2)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: NE -2           O/U: 48.5           DVOA: NE (8) < CHI (6)            Public Betting: NE 76%

The Patriots’ offense has found its groove over the past three weeks, as they’ve averaged a league-high 39.7 points per game since Week 4. Chicago’s stingy defense, however, will likely make life more difficult for Tom Brady and company, especially if Rob Gronkowski is unable to suit up.

But are we sure that the Bears’ defense is as good as advertised? Despite ranking 1st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric, they sit just 15th in opponent yards per play. Chicago has undoubtedly benefitted from some favorable quarterback matchups as well, having faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford, and DeShone Kizer (albeit briefly). Last weekend, of course, they also faced the mighty Brock Osweiler, who threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns in a surprising last-second win.

With Khalil Mack hobbled (he is reportedly “50-50” to play with an ankle injury), New England’s offense should have some success against Chicago’s solid, yet unspectacular defense. Moreover, I also trust a Patriots’ defense that has looked much better since defensive end Trey Flowers returned from injury. With him healthy, New England ranks 11th in the NFL in pressure rate. Without him: only 27th. They’ll force at least one turnover out of Mitchell Trubisky and escape with a fourth straight victory.

NEW ENGLAND 27  Chicago 20 

 

New Orleans Saints (4-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

4:05 PM CBS            Spread: BAL -3           O/U: 49            DVOA: NO (5) < BAL (3)             Public Betting: NO 52%

The league’s top scoring offense (New Orleans) meets the league’s top scoring defense (Baltimore). Normally I like the better defense in this type of matchup, but I’m not picking the Ravens on Sunday.

Yes, Baltimore’s defense is outstanding (12.8 points per game allowed). However, you can’t leave points on the table against an offense as prolific as New Orleans’ and that’s exactly what the Ravens have been doing of late, as they’ve only scored four touchdowns over the past three weeks. The Saints, meanwhile, have the league’s top ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders and they’ve been better against the pass after some early-season struggles (7.3 yards per pass allowed over the past three weeks, 16th in the NFL).

Even though I think the Ravens are a legitimate contender in the AFC, I’ll take the points considering how well New Orleans’ offense has played recently.

NEW ORLEANS 24  Baltimore 22

 

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) vs Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)

8:20 PM NBC             Spread: KC -6             O/U: 58             DVOA: CIN (13) < KC (2)             Public Betting: KC 76%

Cincinnati could keep this one close, mainly because the Chiefs can’t play defense (30th in opponent yards per play). However, the Bengals don’t exactly have a great defense either, as they rank just 24th in defensive DVOA. Another factor to consider is how Kansas City’s offense is far more likely to protect the football: Pat Mahomes and company have the third fewest turnovers per drive in the league, while Cincinnati’s offense ranks just 19th in the same category.

As customary with Chiefs games these days, expect plenty of points. More importantly, look for Kansas City to remain unbeaten against the spread after comfortably beating the Bengals.

KANSAS CITY 34  Cincinnati 23 

 

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) vs Washington Redskins (3-2)

4:25 PM FOX            Spread: DAL -1.5          O/U: 41.5          DVOA: DAL (18) > WSH (22)           Public Betting: WSH 55%

Even though the Redskins have won two straight games at FedEx Field as a home underdog, I like the Cowboys to build on their impressive win last week over Jacksonville. Washington should be able to contain Ezekiel Elliott given the fact that it ranks in the top ten of both opponent yards per play and points allowed. However, I don’t trust Alex Smith and the ‘Skins offense to sustain drives against a Dallas defense that has allowed under 20 points in four of its six games.

I’ll take the Cowboys in an old-fashioned NFC East slugfest.

DALLAS 20, Washington 17 

 

Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

1:00 PM FOX           Spread: PHI -5.5            O/U: 44.5           DVOA: CAR (12) > PHI (14)             Public Betting: PHI 52%

The Eagles are coming off their most commanding win of the season after last Thursday’s dismantling of the Giants, but I still think there is plenty of value with Carolina against the spread. Cam Newton has the 6th highest passer rating this season from a clean pocket and given how Philadelphia has struggled to generate as much pressure as it did last season (the Eagles rank just 20th in adjusted sack rate), I think the 2015 MVP could have a big day through the air.

Nonetheless, I’ll still side with Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has quietly completed 68% of his passes while throwing only 1 interception since his return in Week 4. Safe to say he’s healthy again.

Philadelphia 27  CAROLINA 23

 

Also on the Sunday Slate…

Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

9:30 AM CBS           Spread: LAC -6.5            O/U: 45.5           DVOA: TEN (24) < LAC (4)            Public Betting: LAC 71%

You never know whether one team will be jet-lagged for these London tilts. Given that this is a neutral site game, though, I’m not hesitating with my pick in this one. The Chargers have the league’s 4th highest DVOA and their offense ranks 3rd in yards per play. I simply don’t see Marcus Mariota (2 TD, 4 INT in 2018) keeping up with Phillip Rivers.

LOS ANGELES 28  Tennessee 20 

 

Cleveland Browns (2-3-1) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

1:00 PM FOX            Spread: TB -3.5             O/U: 52.5               DVOA: CLE (27) < TB (25)          Public Betting: TB 54%

One of the best insights from my ongoing research into DVOA betting trends is this: underdogs who are within five DVOA ranking spots of their opponent — as the Browns are against the ‘Bucs — have covered the spread at a 61% rate since the start of the 2016 season.

I love Cleveland’s value against the spread this week, particularly since Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed a horrendous 6.9 yards per play this season (32nd in the NFL).

CLEVELAND 27  Tampa Bay 23

 

Houston Texans (3-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)

1:00 PM CBS            Spread: JAC -4            O/U: 41.5             DVOA: HOU (17) > JAC (16)             Public Betting: JAC 55%

I would consider taking the Texans to win if not for the fact that Deshaun Watson is dealing with a collapsed lung. I repeat: a collapsed lung! Additionally, I bet the Jaguars are hungry to reassert themselves as the favorite in the AFC South after two poor performances against the Chiefs (30 points allowed) and Cowboys (40 points) respectively. Look for Calais Campbell and the ‘Jags’ terrific front four to have a field day against Houston’s terrible offensive line.

JACKSONVILLE 27  Houston 10 

 

Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1) vs New York Jets (3-3)

1:00 PM FOX             Spread: MIN -3.5            O/U: 46            DVOA: MIN (19) > NYJ (20)              Public Betting: MIN 68%

I can’t bring myself to pick the Jets for the third week in a row…but I do think New York is once again undervalued against an erratic Minnesota team whose defense has completely fallen off the map (27th in yards per play allowed). I’ll still take the Vikings to win because I think Adam Thielen, the NFL’s receiving yards leader, will take advantage of a Jets’ secondary that will be without Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine, but it will be close.

Minnesota 27  NEW YORK 24 

 

Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs Indianapolis Colts (1-5)

1:00 PM CBS              Spread: IND -7            O/U: 43             DVOA: IND (21) > BUF (32)                 Public Betting: IND 66%

To the Bills’ credit, they play exceptional defense (3rd in yards per play allowed). And to Sean McDermott’s credit, he made the right call bypassing the truly abysmal Nathan Peterman in favor of Derek Anderson. With that said, Anderson hasn’t played meaningful snaps in nearly four years, so I think the Colts should get off the schneid and take care of business at home (emphasis on the words I think).

Indianapolis 20  BUFFALO 16 

 

Detroit Lions (2-3) vs Miami Dolphins (4-2)

1:00 PM FOX             Spread: DET -3             O/U: 46.5            DVOA: DET (28) < MIA (9)               Public Betting: MIA 53%

All aboard the Brock Osweiler bandwagon for another week? Tempting, but I’ll pass. Most of Miami’s success has come via big plays, such as the 43 and 75 yard touchdowns that fueled their second-half comeback against the Bears last week. I’m not sure whether those sort of plays are sustainable. Detroit’s rested off a bye, so I’ll take Matt Patricia’s squad to move to .500.

DETROIT 24  Miami 17 

 

Los Angeles Rams (6-0) vs San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

4:25 PM CBS            Spread: LA -9.5            O/U: 52             DVOA: LA (1) > SF (29)                  Public Betting: LA 66%

C.J. Beathard has been solid in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, as San Francisco has managed to average 5.9 yards per play over the past three weeks (t-14th in NFL). Maybe the 49ers can keep this one as close as their game against Green Bay last Monday night…or maybe not.

LOS ANGELES 33  San Francisco 20 

 

Best Bets

• KANSAS CITY (-260) over Cincinnati 

• TEASER: WASHINGTON (+8) over Dallas & Dallas vs Washington UNDER 48

• CAROLINA (+5.5) over Philadelphia 

• LOS ANGELES (-300) over Tennessee

• CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Tampa Bay

• JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Houston 

• TEASER: NEW YORK (+10) over Minnesota & Minnesota vs New York OVER 39.5 

• Buffalo vs Indianapolis UNDER 43