Week Three Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network 

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records Entering Week 3 + Records Last Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 15-16-2 (.485)            Straight Up: 182-85 (.682)            Total: 361-202-4 (.641) 

Spread: 12-18-3 (.409)                    Spread: 151-104-12 (.588)            Total: 315-231-21 (.575)      

Over/Under: 17-16 (.515)                Over/Under: 149-112-6 (.569)        Total: 308-253-6 (.548)

Best Bets: 5-5 (.500)                     Best Bets: 74-46 (.617)                    Total: 208-151-1 (.579) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: CLEVELAND 24  New York 17 

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) vs Los Angeles Rams (2-0)

4:05 PM CBS       Spread: LAR -7        O/U: 48        DVOA: LAC (14) < LAR (1)         Public Betting: LAR 55%

After their 34-0 win over the Cardinals last week, the Rams supplanted the Patriots as the favorites to win Super Bowl LIII. And rightfully so. Los Angeles not only leads the NFL in point differential through two weeks, but is the top team in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The Chargers are a difficult opponent, though. For starters, their offense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play (6.9). You also don’t want to write off Phillip Rivers when he’s getting points: he is 11-3 against the spread in his career when he has been an underdog of at least 7 points.

With that said, the Rams should win this game. Without Joey Bosa (out again with a foot injury), I don’t see the Chargers generating enough pressure against LA’s stout offensive line. That will allow Todd Gurley and company to have a nice day offensively.

RAMS 29  Chargers 20 

 

New Orleans Saints (1-1) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

1:00 PM FOX        Spread: ATL -1.5          O/U: 53.5         DVOA: NO (5) > ATL (18)         Public Betting: NO 66%

Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one. The Saints’ defense has had a painfully slow start to the season, as they’re allowing a league-high 7.0 yards per play through two weeks. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ D has been decimated by injuries. After losing linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal to season-ending injuries in the opener, Atlanta allowed 6.8 yards per play last week against Carolina. While they managed to win the game, the Falcons especially missed Jones, as his replacement, second-year LB Duke Riley, was their lowest graded player according to Pro Football Focus (42.9).

The public surprisingly loves the Saints in this matchup based on how the spread has dropped from -3 to -1.5. But I still like Atlanta at home. Look for Julio Jones to take advantage of New Orleans’ struggling secondary.

ATLANTA 30  New Orleans 27

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) vs Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

1:00 PM FOX        Spread: KC -6.5        O/U: 55         DVOA: SF (28) < KC (7)         Public Betting: KC 61%

The 49ers should give the red-hot Chiefs a scare. Led by second-year standout Matt Brieda (second-highest graded running back, according to PFF), San Francisco is averaging 5.3 yards per rush attempt (2nd in the NFL). Translation: the 49ers will have the ability to control the clock, particularly against a shaky Kansas City defense that is allowing 32.5 points per game.

San Francisco’s defense, however, isn’t great either. Pat Mahomes won’t throw for six touchdowns again, but he’ll do enough to lead the Chiefs to a 3-0 start.

Kansas City 27  SAN FRANCISCO 24 

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (0-2)

4:25 PM FOX        Spread: SEA -1        O/U: 41         DVOA: DAL (9) > SEA (19)           Public Betting: SEA 56%

Dallas’ defensive line piled up six sacks last week, albeit against a weak Giants’ offensive line. Well, the good news for the Cowboys is that they’ll face another below-average pass blocking unit this weekend. Star defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence has to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing Seattle OT Germain Ifedi, who ranks as the 66th highest-graded tackle in the NFL according to PFF (there are only 68 qualified tackles, by the way).

Despite this glaring weakness, I still like the Seahawks. They’re the more desperate team and they’re playing at home.

SEATTLE 20  Cowboys 17 

 

New England Patriots (1-1) vs Detroit Lions (0-2)

8:30 PM NBC        Spread: NE -6.5          O/U: 54           DVOA: NE (3) > DET (29)            Public Betting: NE 84%

Multiple trends favor the Patriots. First, you don’t want to bet against Tom Brady after a loss: he’s 32-10 against the spread in these situations since 2003. Second, Matt Stafford and the Lions often struggle against quality teams, as they are just 23-48 against opponents who are .500 or better since 2009. And lastly, have you seen Detroit’s defense this season? The Lions have already allowed 78 points this season (39.0 per game). That obviously doesn’t bode well against New England.

The one concern for the Patriots is that they’re banged up defensively. Three starters — Trey Flowers, Pat Chung, and Eric Rowe — are all questionable. If these guys don’t play, the Lions will hang around. However, I still like New England to pull through in a high-scoring affair.

New England 31  DETROIT 27 

 

Upset Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos (2-0) vs Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

1:00 PM CBS        Spread: BAL -5          O/U: 45.5           DVOA: DEN (22) < BAL (8)          Public Betting: DEN 57%

The Ravens are surprisingly a five-point favorite against a 2-0 Broncos team. Even though Denver’s defense has struggled so far (25th in opponent yards per play), Joe Flacco, who is the 25th highest graded quarterback according to PFF, doesn’t inspire much confidence. Moreover, the Broncos’ offense is much improved thanks to high-impact rookies like Phillip Lindsay. The undrafted rookie averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry after contact last week, good for most in the NFL.

Look for players like Lindsay to provide enough points on the offensive end. Von Miller and company will take care of business from there.

DENVER 24  Baltimore 23 

 

Also on the Sunday Slate…

Buffalo Bills (0-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1) 

1:00 PM CBS         Spread: MIN -16.5           O/U: 41.5          DVOA: BUF (32) < MIN (4)           Public Betting: MIN 68%

The spread is high for a reason. Josh Allen and the Bills have no chance against the Vikings’ elite defense.

MINNESOTA 34  Buffalo 10 

 

Tennessee Titans (1-1) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)

1:00 PM CBS        Spread: JAC -9          O/U: 40            DVOA: TEN (26) < JAC (16)          Public Betting: JAC 62%

After a four touchdown performance against the Patriots last week, Blake Bortles enters Week 3 as the fifth highest graded quarterback in the NFL. Bortles’ stellar play, combined with the Jaguars’ elite defense, makes Jacksonville a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Expect them to remain unbeaten against a Titans team that projects to once again be without Marcus Mariota.

JACKSONVILLE 24  Tennessee 10 

 

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

1:00 PM FOX         Spread: PHI -7          O/U: 46.5          DVOA: IND (20) < PHI (6)            Public Betting: PHI 56%

Carson Wentz will finally make his return to the field against a below-average Indianapolis defense. I bet he’ll play well, but I doubt the Philadelphia offense will be firing on all cylinders without its top two running backs, Jay Ajayi (back) and Darren Sproles (hamstring). On top of that, the Eagles may also be without their third  running back, Corey Clement, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, who has yet to play this season due to a rotator cuff injury.

Andrew Luck looks good after missing all of last season (71.4% completion percentage), so Philly will need its elite defensive line to make him uncomfortable. I trust they’ll do that, although the Colts should make things interesting.

Philadelphia 24  INDIANAPOLIS 21

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) vs Carolina Panthers (1-1)

1:00 PM CBS        Spread: CAR -3         O/U: 44.5          DVOA: CIN (11) > CAR (17)          Public Betting: CIN 56%

The Bengals have quietly been one of the most impressive teams through two weeks. Will they continue to average 34 points per game? No. But against a banged up Panthers team that is particularly weak at cornerback (their highest-graded quarterback, James Bradberry, ranks just 73rd overall according to PFF), I’ll take Cincinnati in a minor upset.

CINCINNATI 27  Carolina 20 

 

New York Giants (0-2) vs Houston Texans (0-2)

1:00 PM FOX         Spread: HOU -6.5          O/U: 43.5           DVOA: NYG (30) < HOU (12)           Public Betting: NYG 54%

Even though the Texans’ offensive line is horrific, I think Houston has a significant edge on the other side of the ball with J.J. Watt and company going up against a similarly bad Giants’ offensive line. I expect both offenses to break out in this one. In the end, I’ll side with Deshaun Watson over Eli Manning.

Houston 26  NEW YORK 24 

 

Oakland Raiders (0-2) vs Miami Dolphins (2-0)

1:00 PM CBS         Spread: MIA -3           O/U: 44.5            DVOA: OAK (24) < MIA (13)             Public Betting: OAK 55%

Here’s an interesting stat: Ryan Tannehill had the 4th highest quarterback rating when operating from a clean pocket in 2016 (recall that he missed the entire 2017 campaign). The Raiders, of course, have struggled to get after the quarterback after trading Khalil Mack.

MIAMI 24  Oakland 17 

 

Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) vs Washington Redskins (1-1)

1:00 PM FOX           Spread: GB -2.5          O/U: 45           DVOA: GB (10) > WSH (15)            Public Betting: GB 59%

This is a good opportunity to buy low on the Redskins. In their loss last week to Indianapolis, Washington was within the Colts’ 30-yard line on five occasions yet did not score a single touchdown. That is unlikely to happen again. Moreover, Aaron Rodgers’ knee is once again a big question mark for the Packers in their first road tilt. Green Bay has struggled away from Lambeau in recent years (8-10 since 2016) and combined with their inability to disrupt the quarterback (their defense ranks 24th in pressure rate through two weeks), I’ll take Washington to pull the upset.

WASHINGTON 31  Green Bay 24 

 

Chicago Bears (1-1) vs Arizona Cardinals (0-2)

4:25 PM FOX          Spread: CHI -5           O/U: 39           DVOA: CHI (23) > ARZ (31)           Public Betting: CHI 74%

Another upset alert. Yes, the Cardinals have had a miserable start to their season, scoring a combined 6 points in their first two games. But here are two great stats to know: 1) teams that have scored fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games are 57-35-1 (.618) ATS since 2003 and 2) Week 3 underdogs who did not cover in their first two games of the season have covered the spread at a 59% rate since ’03.

Plus, as good as the Bears’ defense is, does Mitchell Trubisky deserve to be a five-point road favorite?

ARIZONA 20  Chicago 18 

 

Monday Night Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

8:15 PM ESPN          Spread: PIT -1           O/U: 53.5            DVOA: PIT (2) > TB (21)              Public Betting: TB 60%

This game should be a shoot-out. Pittsburgh’s secondary has allowed the most deep passing yards (250) in the NFL so far this season, while Tampa Bay is allowing 6.6 yards per play (30th in the NFL).

So will Fitzmagic continue? Eh…I have to imagine a regression will happen sooner or later. Combined with how Pittsburgh is desperate for its first win, I’ll side with a more dependable Steelers team.

PITTSBURGH 38  Tampa Bay 27 

 

Best Bets

• ATLANTA (-1.5) over New Orleans

• TEASER: San Francisco vs Kansas City UNDER 61.5 & SEATTLE (+7.5) over Dallas

• DENVER (+5) over Baltimore

• Buffalo vs Minnesota OVER 40.5

• INDIANAPOLIS (+7) over Philadelphia

• TEASER: MIAMI (+3.5) over Oakland & WASHINGTON (+9) over Green Bay

• ARIZONA (+5) over Chicago