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Spread Bet Saturday: Week Two Edition
Last Week: 3-2 (.600) 2018: 7-4 (.636) Best Bets: 1-1 (.500) Upset Picks: 1-1 (.500)
*Overall: 134-99-2 (.574)
*Dates back to 2016 season
Green letters indicate pick with the spread
Marquee Matchups
#4 Ohio State vs #15 TCU
Spread: Ohio State -12 8:00 ET ABC Football Power Index: OSU (2) > TCU (29) Public: OSU 66%
The Buckeyes haven’t exactly missed Urban Meyer so far, as they outscored their first two opponents — Oregon State and Rutgers — by 95 combined points.
Will things be much different against a far more formidable challenger on Saturday night? Probably not. As I said during the most recent episode of Two Point Stance, Meyer’s value to the program comes primarily as a recruiter. After all, Ohio State has had three consecutive top five recruiting classes. TCU, in contrast, has not had a recent class rank in the top twenty.
Look for running back J.K. Dobbins (5.4 yards per carry in ’18) to have a breakout game and lead the Buckeyes to an impressive road victory.
Ohio State 37 TCU 20
#12 LSU vs #7 Auburn
Spread: Auburn -10.5 3:30 ET CBS Football Power Index: LSU (20) < Auburn (9) Public: LSU 68%
Nearly 70% of the betting public likes LSU, which appears to make sense given the seemingly high spread between these two highly ranked teams.
However, Auburn is actually undervalued in this matchup. For starters, home favorites in games between two ranked SEC teams are a terrific 63-38-2 (.621) against the spread since 2005. More importantly, Gus Malzahn’s squad should feast on an anemic LSU offense that is just 7 for 27 on third down conversions this season (119th in the nation). All Auburn in this one.
Auburn 30 LSU 14
#22 USC vs Texas
Spread: Texas -3.5 8:00 ET FOX Football Power Index: USC (26) > Texas (30) Public: USC 54%
True freshman J.T. Daniels did not accord himself well in his first road start for the Trojans last weekend, completing just 16 of 34 passes and throwing 2 interceptions in USC’s 17-3 loss to #10 Stanford. Things won’t be that much easier this Saturday at Darrell K. Royal Stadium in front of what should be a raucous atmosphere. Once again, the spotlight will be too much for Daniels, even against a flawed Texas team.
Texas 27 USC 21
#17 Boise State vs #24 Oklahoma State
Spread: Oklahoma State -2 3:30 ET ESPN Football Power Index: BSU (15) > OKST (19) Public: BSU 58%
Boise State is still going strong after all these years. I like them to pull a minor upset in Stillwater because the Broncos have an experienced quarterback in Brett Rypien, who is off to a seven touchdown, zero turnover start in his fourth year as the starter, while the Cowboys are still breaking in Taylor Cornelius, who has thrown three interceptions in his first two games.
Boise State 41 Oklahoma State 34
Best Bet
#1 Alabama annihilates Ole Miss
Spread: Alabama -21.5 7:00 ET ESPN Football Power Index: MISS (21) < ALA (1) Public: ALA 74%
Tua Tagovailoa. He’s pretty good. The Tide offense should do a number on an Ole Miss defense that allowed 41 points last Saturday to…..Southern Illinois.
Alabama 50 Ole Miss 14
Upset Pick of the Week
Utah dashes #10 Washington’s playoff hopes
Spread: Washington -5.5 10:00 ET ESPN Football Power Index: WASH (8) > UTAH (34) Public: WASH 64%
Here’s something you weren’t aware of: Utah has the number one ranked defense in the country according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Yep, number one. I was surprised too. Moreover, the Utes always play the Huskies well, as they’ve covered the spread in each of their past three meetings.
Too tough of a spot for Washington. Utah pulls the upset at home.
Utah 23 Washington 20
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