Well, I’ve previewed the eight most compelling teams to watch this season…I’ve shared which teams I expect to significantly improve…and I’ve discussed my favorite over/under win total bets…
Now it’s finally time to unveil my official predictions! First, I’ll break down my six playoff teams in each conference and provide records for all the non-playoff teams. Then I’ll take you through my postseason bracket and conclude with my Super Bowl LIII prediction!
Note: offense, defense, and special teams ranking projections courtesy of Football Outsiders.
AFC
1 Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Record: 12-4 OFF: 1 DEF: 8 ST: 17 Overall: 1
Ignore the Le’Veon Bell holdout drama. Pittsburgh will still have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL thanks to a stout offensive line and a terrific receiving corps. Ben Roethlisberger has at least one more above-average season in him, too.
The key question for the Steelers: has their defense overcome the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier?
2 New England Patriots
Predicted Record: 11-5 OFF: 2 DEF: 15 ST: 2 Overall: 2
I project a little bit of a pullback from the Patriots. They are not as deep as they have been in the past and their defense is still suspect. Nonetheless, Brady and company will still be one of the league’s highest scoring offenses. That will ensure another first round bye.
3 Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted Record: 10-6 OFF: 14 DEF: 21 ST: 22 Overall: 15
Phillip Rivers is back to lead a Chargers offense that finished 4th in yards per play last season. Joey Bosa, meanwhile, anchors a defense that many think could be a top-ten unit in 2018. Look for last year’s seventh overall pick Mike Williams to return from injury and make a significant impact at wide receiver.
4 Houston Texans
Predicted Record: 10-6 OFF: 20 DEF: 4 ST: 27 Overall: 12
Click here to read why I’m high on Houston.
5 Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Record: 10-6 OFF: 28 DEF: 12 ST: 20 Overall: 25
The Jaguars’ offense is shaky, particularly after losing top wideout Marquise Lee. But that defense…man, they are terrific. Led by Jalen Ramsey, my pick to win Defensive Player of the Year, Jacksonville will be back in the postseason.
6 Tennessee Titans
Predicted Record: 9-7 OFF: 15 DEF: 19 ST: 14 Overall: 14
The final wild card slot in the AFC is a crapshoot. But I like Tennessee to return to the postseason because I think Marcus Mariota will have a breakout season under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, a Sean McVay disciple.
Division-by-Division Breakdown
AFC East: 1 New England 11-5 2 New York 6-10 3 Miami 5-11 4 Buffalo 2-14
AFC North: 1 Pittsburgh 12-4 2 Baltimore 8-8 3 Cincinnati 5-11 4 Cleveland 4-12
AFC South: 1 Houston 10-6 2 Jacksonville 10-6 3 Tennessee 9-7 4 Indianapolis 6-10
AFC West: 1 Los Angeles 10-6 2 Kansas City 8-8 3 Denver 8-8 4 Oakland 5-11
NFC
1 Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Record: 12-4 OFF: 5 DEF: 25 ST: 16 Overall: 9
Look for the Falcons’ defense to take a big step forward this season. They closed last season by allowing an average of only 16.1 points in their final seven games — and this came against teams like the Eagles, Rams, and Saints! Combined with their solid offense, the Falcons will be the NFC’s top seed come January.
2 Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted Record: 11-5 OFF: 8 DEF: 3 ST: 5 Overall: 6
Super Bowl hangover? Unlikely to happen, unless Carson Wentz is out longer than expected. Philadelphia is terrific in the trenches and is extremely well-coached. It helps that this projects to be a down year for the NFC East, too.
3 Los Angeles Rams
Predicted Record: 11-5 OFF: 11 DEF: 1 ST: 3 Overall: 4
The Rams’ certainly had the most aggressive offseason in the NFL. Click here to read why I think it will pay off.
4 Green Bay Packers
Predicted Record: 11-5 OFF: 4 DEF: 18 ST: 15 Overall: 7
Green Bay was a dumpster fire without Aaron Rodgers last year. Now that he’s back…well, they won’t be a dumpster fire.
5 New Orleans Saints
Predicted Record: 10-6 OFF: 3 DEF: 9 ST: 11 Overall: 3
The Saints could easily represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, especially if their defense is a top ten unit once again. But in such a crowded conference, New Orleans will have to go on the road in order to get to Atlanta.
6 Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Record: 10-6 OFF: 7 DEF: 2 ST: 12 Overall: 5
Same goes for the Vikings, who look improved on paper after adding Kirk Cousins. However, I’m not sure he’ll be a major upgrade over Case Keenum given Cousins’ tendency to turn the ball over.
Division-By-Division Breakdown
NFC East: 1 Philadelphia 11-5 2 New York 8-8 3 Dallas 6-10 4 Washington 6-10
NFC North: 1 Green Bay 11-5 2 Minnesota 10-6 3 Detroit 8-8 4 Chicago 7-9
NFC South: 1 Atlanta 12-4 2 New Orleans 10-6 3 Carolina 9-7 4 Tampa Bay 5-11
NFC West: 1 Los Angeles 11-5 2 San Francisco 9-7 3 Seattle 8-8 4 Arizona 6-10
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
3 Chargers over 6 Titans 4 Texans over 5 Jaguars 3 Rams over 6 Vikings 4 Packers over 5 Saints
Divisional Round
4 Texans over 1 Steelers 2 Patriots over 3 Chargers 1 Falcons over 4 Packers 3 Rams over 2 Eagles
Conference Championships
AFC: Patriots over Texans NFC: Rams over Falcons
Super Bowl LIII: Patriots over Rams
Look…if I was purely objective, I would not pick my Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII. Though I think New England is fully equipped to not only reach its 8th straight AFC Championship (I repeat: 8th straight AFC Championship), but return to the Super Bowl as well, the Patriots simply have not made the necessary adjustments on the defensive side of the ball to make me believe that they can beat a formidable NFC team quarterbacked by someone such as Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or even Jared Goff.
But Goff certainly wouldn’t be the only Rams player that the Patriots — or any team who wins the AFC, for that matter — would have to worry about. Los Angeles is loaded across the board with a full complement of Pro Bowl-caliber offensive players such as reigning Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley and offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth; and of course, the Rams’ defensive line is now arguably the best in football after adding Ndamukong Suh to join last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.
Again, if I was entirely objective, I would take the Rams to beat the Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI. But that is not the case…so I’m siding with my Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII. And in fairness, New England is the favorite to win it all once again. Plus, as I mentioned in my most recent article, the last time we saw Tom Brady take the field, he set multiple postseason records by throwing for 505 yards while leading the Patriots to over 600 yards of offense, albeit in a losing effort.
The best quarterback in NFL history still has more in the tank, which is why I’m picking the Patriots to string together one last hurrah and claim their sixth Lombardi trophy.
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