This is the eighth and final article of an eight-part NFL preview series in which I analyze the eight most compelling teams to watch this season. Click on these links to read my previews for the following teams: Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, the LA Rams, Oakland, and Philadelphia.
Next up: my Patriots.
I was seven years old when my dad took me to my first Patriots game.
I don’t remember much from that day. It certainly helps to look back at photos of me sliding down one of the slides at what used to be known as Patriots Experience (now Patriot Place) and standing inside the stadium I would come to frequent on so many future Sundays. But I do remember being immediately absorbed by all the elements that people who insist it is better to watch on television will never understand: the smell of burgers and sausages marinating at tailgates, the optimistic march to the stadium, the sight of Tom Brady effortlessly tossing forty-yard seam patterns in warmups, and the collective roar from the crowd after the Patriots run onto the field following the conclusion of the dramatic “O Fortuna.”
The Patriots beat the Titans on that crisp October afternoon. Little did I know — little did anyone know — that that victory would be the first of an NFL record twenty-one consecutive wins and countless others over one of the greatest stretches of dominance in sports history.
You name the big Patriots game over the past fourteen years, my dad and I were there. The Brady/Manning playoff duels. The Cundiff miss. Edelman to Amendola. Last year’s comeback win over Jacksonville. And so many more. The number of great experiences we’ve had at Gillette is truly staggering.
No matter the circumstance, we have always approached Gillette Stadium with unwavering confidence that the Patriots will win — and win handily.
These times, however, are nearing their end. Tom Brady is 41. Bill Belichick is 66. Neither will be around much longer. Additionally, the Patriots lost a number of players in the offseason, depleting their depth. They’ll now be more reliant than ever on not only Brady, but key players like Rob Gronkowski and Dont’a Hightower. Combined with the palpable tension between Brady, Belichick, and Robert Kraft, it’s even reasonable to say that the empire may come crumbling down sooner than we think.
But the essential question for the Patriots as the 2018 season approaches is this: will the good times continue for at least one more season?
My answer to that question is an unequivocal yes.
Start with the offense. Even at the age of 41, Brady remains as dominant as ever. He was the league’s MVP last season after a 32 TD campaign and had arguably his most impressive postseason even though it ended with a Super Bowl loss (8 TD, 0 INT, 108.6 rating). He showed no signs of slowing down this preseason, either.
Alongside Brady is a terrific arsenal of skill-position players. Sure, there are injury concerns. Gronkowski rarely makes it through a full season, while Julian Edelman is coming off ACL surgery. But at full strength, there’s no stopping this Patriots’ passing attack which ranked as the best in the NFL last year according to Football Outsiders.
Those aforementioned personnel losses may not be overly significant, too. Danny Amendola’s departure will be offset by Edelman’s return. Nate Solder, who graded out as merely the 32nd best offensive tackle last season according to Pro Football Focus, was not worth his hefty price tag. New acquisition Trent Brown — all 6’9″ of him — is likely to provide better value and better protection. And while Dion Lewis will surely be missed, the reliable James White, versatile Rex Burkhead, and perhaps even rookie first rounder Sony Michel will help stabilize the backfield.
Far bigger questions loom on defense, particularly after the unit’s most recent showing last February. But with Hightower back along with two new acquisitions, 345 lbs run-stuffer Danny Shelton and former Falcon Adrian Clayborn (9.5 sacks in ’17), New England’s front seven should be more formidable. The secondary, meanwhile, could be competent provided Stephon Gilmore plays like he did in the second half of last season.
Admittedly, though, the Patriots’ defense is still a concern. After all, they ranked only 22nd in defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders last year and did not make a noteworthy acquisition to strengthen their pass defense.
Yet of all the years for the Patriots to be vulnerable, there still doesn’t appear to be many teams capable of toppling them. That’s because the rest of the AFC is weak, with only Pittsburgh and perhaps a few other solid, but flawed teams (i.e. the Chargers, Texans, and Jaguars) looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The AFC East is even weaker, meaning the Patriots should have little trouble securing a high seed once again.
The road to the Super Bowl, in short, is still likely to run through Foxboro, making the possibility of an eighth consecutive conference championship appearance — and perhaps even another shot at the Lombardi trophy — a solid bet.
But the times are a-changin, there’s little doubt about that. That’s why as the season opener approaches this Sunday, I can’t help but think back to all the highlights of my childhood, from that first trip to Foxboro when I was seven to all the great comebacks, blowout wins, and thrilling playoff victories in between.
Whether this season ends in a confetti celebration or a disappointing defeat, I’m going to cherish it all the same.
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