There’s only one thing that makes the thought of summer ending a little less miserable: the upcoming NFL season.
And with training camps set to open this week, I always like to kick off my series of NFL preview articles by first looking at the teams who are most likely to significantly rise and fall in the new campaign. After all, NFL win-loss records are highly volatile on a yearly basis. Last year alone, the Jaguars (3-13 in 2016) and Rams (4-12) improved by seven wins apiece to make unexpected playoff appearances. The Eagles, meanwhile, went from 7-9 and out of the playoffs to Super Bowl champs. Good luck trying to find someone who predicted all of those things happening.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are many teams that go from being rousing success stories to anonymity in a blink of an eye. Oakland, for instance, surprisingly declined by six wins last season after a 12-4 campaign the year prior. Two years ago, both participants in Super Bowl 50 — Denver and Carolina — failed to even make the playoffs in 2016 (in the Panthers’ case, they went from 15-1 to 7-9!).
Another reason why I like predicting the upcoming season’s improvement and regression candidates: I’m pretty good at it. Last year, four of the five teams I said would significantly improve (Chargers, Eagles, Jaguars, and Panthers) saw their win totals jump by an average of 5.5 wins. My top three regression candidates — Miami, Detroit, and Oakland — all missed the postseason after making it the year before. 2016 was a solid year for my predictions, too.
Which teams are primed for significant improvement in 2018? Let’s start with the three most obvious ones…
Houston Texans (4-12 in ’17)
New York Giants (3-13 in ’17)
Indianapolis Colts (4-12 in ’17)
What do these three teams have in common? All were snake-bitten by injuries last year.
The Texans had to make due without both Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt (as well as linebacker Whitney Mercilus) for most of last season. Watson’s absence was particularly catastrophic, as Houston’s offense went from averaging 34.6 points per game (1st in the NFL) in the former Clemson star’s six starts to 13.0 points per game with the likes of Tom Savage and T.J. Yates under center. Assuming the Texans’ key players all return in good shape, they should see their record jump anywhere from 5-7 wins.
New York, meanwhile, lost Odell Beckham for the season in early October and had to make due the rest of the way with what might have passed as a decent college-level receiving corps. The Giants’ woes last season were also assuredly due to former coach Ben McAdoo’s lousy leadership, which is why a fresh face in new head man Pat Shurmur — coming off a sensational stint as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator — should work wonders.
And I suppose New York’s playoff aspirations will benefit from the presence of rookie running back Saquon Barkley, a player many have hailed as the best back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Coupled with Beckham’s return, look for a more dynamic Giants’ offense to lead them to at least a .500 record.
As for the Colts, their hopes rest on the shoulders of Andrew Luck. But after essentially a two-year hiatus, the former number one pick has finally been cleared to return. So after a frustrating season in which the short-handed Colts went just 3-6 in one-score games, Indianapolis is likely to be a surprise wild card team.
Next, here are two less-so-obvious teams that will make big strides:
Denver Broncos (5-11 in ’17)
Chicago Bears (5-11 in ’17)
Along with injuries, the other way to doom your season is through turnovers. And that’s exactly what happened to the Broncos in 2017, as they finished with the second worst TO differential in the NFL (-17). In fact, all three of their starting QB’s last year — Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch — each threw as many interceptions as touchdowns. To compound matters, Denver also fumbled the ball as much as any team in the league, resulting in twelve more lost possessions for a giveaway total of 34.
Things won’t be as bad, though, with new acquisition Case Keenum under center. Not only did the former Minnesota starter throw only seven interceptions in ’17, but he lost just one fumble over 481 regular season pass attempts. Keenum may not play as well in his new setting (he wasn’t exactly a star before his breakout year with the Vikings), but he’s certain to protect the ball better than Denver’s previous options. With a defense that remained above-average last season despite surface-level statistics that suggested underperformance, the Broncos will be back in the hunt in 2018.
There are numerous reasons why Chicago is a sleeper. First, the Bears just finished 31st in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost metric. Translation: they suffered the second most injuries in the league last year. Odds are their luck will change. Moreover, Chicago lost many close contests last season (2-5 in one-score games) against the likes of Atlanta (23-17 loss on final play) and Minnesota (20-17) en route to finishing with a pythagorean win expectation 1.2 victories below their actual win total. Teams with that large of a difference tend to naturally improve the following year — and after making a few underrated acquisitions, like signing wide receiver Allen Robinson, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears will be better than expected.
The one team poised for the most dramatic improvement:
Cleveland Browns (0-16 in ’17)
Sure…they have nowhere else to go. No kidding. But I don’t see just a little 2-3 win improvement from the Browns. I’m thinking 5-6 more wins at a minimum from a Cleveland team that will look dramatically different in 2018.
The most significant change comes at quarterback, where former Bills starter Tyrod Taylor is likely to beat out top overall pick Baker Mayfield for the job. Regardless, either will be an upgrade over DeShone Kizer, who threw 22 interceptions in his awful one-year audition to be Cleveland’s franchise quarterback. But for the Browns’ sake, it will be best if they turn to Taylor, who posted the 11th lowest interception rate in NFL history last season for Buffalo (1.0%). Granted, Taylor can be considered an overly cautious thrower, but his style of play is undoubtedly more suitable for Cleveland than someone like Kizer, particularly since the Browns’ defense surprisingly finished tied for ninth in opponent yards per play last season.
Additionally, teams that have finished last in the NFL in turnover differential tend to naturally ascend to the mean. Here are the last three teams to finish 32nd in TO +/- along with their subsequent splits the following year:
- 2016: New York Jets -20 in 2016 -4 in 2017 +16 difference
- 2015: Dallas Cowboys -22 in 2015 +5 in 2016 +27 difference
- 2014: Oakland Raiders -15 in 2014 +1 in 2015 +16 difference
Did better ball protection translate to more wins? Well, although the Jets did not see an increase in their win total, the Cowboys and Raiders improved by 11 and 4 wins, respectively.
There are even more trends that are working in Cleveland’s favor, though. Most notably, the winless Browns underperformed their expected win total by a staggering 3.3 wins based on their point differential. Not only is that the largest discrepancy to occur in a few years, but teams that underperformed by at least three wins from 1983-2010 improved the following year by an average of 2.6 wins. Last season’s Jaguars, for instance, had the largest disparity between their actual and expected win total in 2016 (-2.9) and ended up improving by seven victories.
Cleveland, believe it or not, could make a similar jump. No, I’m not saying Hue Jackson’s squad will be in the AFC Championship or anything like that. But with new additions like Taylor and last year’s receptions leader, Jarvis Landry, to add desperately needed competence to their offense, the Browns at least won’t be terrible next season. I’ll even go out on a limb and say they’ll win a respectable six games, making them the NFL’s most improved team of 2018.
Stay tuned because later this week I will reveal the teams I expect to DECLINE the most this season.
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