By the middle of May, I was ready to declare the 2018 AL MVP race all but over. After all, there were headlines such as “Mike Trout is on pace for the greatest season in MLB history” scattered throughout sites like ESPN, Bleacher Report, and others. Made sense why: Trout’s WAR was on track to top Babe Ruth’s single-season record.
Yet here we are at midseason with an AL MVP race that is anything but over. That’s because even as Trout continues to dominate (although he’s unlikely to catch Ruth’s WAR of 14.1), one of the men that will start alongside the Angels’ superstar in the outfield at Tuesday’s All-Star game is having just as great of a season.
Yes, Mookie Betts has been that stellar, despite the fact that oddsmakers still have Trout as the consensus favorite.
Seriously, though, where’s the gap between the two? Because if you look at the numbers, there isn’t a gap. If anything, Betts should actually be considered the favorite. Let’s look first at their respective hitting stats, as of July 14th.
- Batting average: Betts .362 > Trout .312
- OBP: Betts .450 < Trout .454
- Slugging: Betts .698 > Trout .610
- Home Run Rate (per AB): Betts 6.5% > Trout 5.9%
Betts has a clear edge over the two-time MVP in nearly all of the major hitting statistics (and you could even call OBP a wash). But the main argument you’ll hear in favor of Trout is that he does everything superbly.
Well…so does Betts. He has more stolen bases (17) than Trout (15) despite the fact that he has played nineteen fewer games. And according to BsR — Fangraphs’ all-encompassing base-running statistic which factors in every base-running play (i.e. taking extra bases, caught stealing) — Betts’ 3.9 rating is a tad above Trout’s (3.8).
It’s not a stretch to argue that the 5’9″ Betts has been the more valuable fielder, either. Sure, Trout arguably plays the tougher position, but Betts’ advanced metrics in right field show he has been one of the best defenders in the game. His Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is even higher than Trout’s, too.
Again, where’s the gap? At the very least, you can’t argue that Trout is having the better season than Betts based on the aforementioned statistics.
This brings me, though, to WAR, which has suddenly become the holy grail of baseball metrics, as well as the primary argument in favor of Trout’s MVP case. According to Fangraphs, the twenty-six year old once again leads MLB in this important category. Betts, meanwhile, is third, behind Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez (an MVP candidate in his own right).
But you want to know the problem with WAR? It’s mostly a subjective rather than an objective measure of performance. In other words, WAR is calculated differently across a variety of major websites. Trout, for instance, has a WAR of 6.6 on Fangraphs and a WAR of 6.9 on Baseball Reference. Aaron Judge, another borderline MVP candidate, has produced either 5.1 victories above replacement or 4.5, depending on who you ask. But the biggest head-scratcher is Indians’ pitcher Trevor Bauer, who is tied with Chris Sale for baseball’s best WAR on Fangraphs, yet is not even in the top five among AL pitchers according to Baseball Reference.
This isn’t to say that WAR is not a useful stat, particularly since it appears that Trout leads in WAR no matter how it’s calculated. We just shouldn’t overrate its importance given this major shortcoming.
Instead, it’s far more logical to take all relevant statistics into account — as I did above — rather than let one be the crucial determinant of all award races. And when taking this approach, it’s clear that Betts vs Trout is a neck-and-neck race.
So who would get my vote if the season ended today? Tough call, but I’d go with Betts. He’s been the slightly more prolific hitter and he’s been just as dynamic in the field and on the basepaths. Plus (and I usually hate making this argument, but in this case it’s relevant) he does play for a team on pace to win 111 games. That has to at least be a small part of Betts’ resume, right?
Nonetheless, the battle for this year’s AL MVP will be the most compelling award race in recent memory. Not only will the relevance of a number of advanced metrics be on the line, but the classic “can the MVP be awarded to a player on a losing team over a worthy candidate on a winning one?” debate will reemerge as well.
