Predicting next season’s NBA champion is often easy. This is true even during the interregnum between the end of the NBA Finals and the start of free agency. Last June, for instance, I didn’t hesitate placing a bet on the Warriors to win this year’s title no less than a week after they cruised to their second championship over Cleveland.
Free agency can obviously complicate matters, though. In this decade alone, we have seen major upheaval dramatically alter the landscape of the NBA on three occasions: 2010, when LeBron James took his talents to South Beach; 2014, when LeBron returned to Cleveland; and 2016, when Kevin Durant joined the 73-win Warriors. The summer of 2018, however, projects to be even more influential because it will mark the Los Angeles Lakers’ long-awaited return to prominence.
My prediction: both LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard will wear purple and gold for the foreseeable future.
The reasons why James will be a Laker are obvious. Hollywood. Warm weather. Staples Center. Oh, and the Lakers just so happen to be one of the most marketable and storied franchises in all of sports. And from a legacy standpoint, LeBron will have an opportunity to lead a third franchise to an NBA title, something no other all-time great — not even Jordan nor Kareem — has done.
Kawhi Leonard’s chances of landing in L.A, meanwhile, are less likely than James’. But I still like the odds. After all: Leonard has identified Los Angeles as his preferred destination. Similar to how Kyrie Irving had leverage with respect to his desire to take his talents elsewhere when he was still with the Cavaliers last offseason, Leonard is likely to press the Spurs’ hand, particularly since the 2014 Finals MVP is a free agent after next season, meaning any team other than the Lakers (as well as the Clippers, I suppose) will essentially be mortgaging significant assets for a one-year rental.
More importantly, I bet the Lakers will look to aggressively pursue Leonard via trade, especially if they’re first able to successfully lure LeBron. Think about it: the Lakers have the worst record in the NBA (126-284) over the past five years! Yes, even worse than the Sacramento Kings (149-261) and the Philadelphia 76ers (127-283), who spent four of the previous five seasons intentionally losing games! What better way for the Lakers to end such a miserable stretch than to pair LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard together alongside the likes of Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, or whichever young assets the Lakers still manage to keep after acquiring Leonard from San Antonio in order to become relevant once again.
With this in mind, there is still time to make a small investment, shall we say, on the Lakers to win next year’s title at +550. Like great pool players, it is essential for futures bettors to think at least one shot ahead. Los Angeles, as constituted, is not a championship contender. But with reports indicating that LeBron is likely to move to L.A, coupled with Leonard and perhaps even Paul George’s desire to do the same, I envision the Lakers’ title odds surging to a value as high as Golden State’s (+140).
So do I think LeBron, Leonard, and perhaps even George will ultimately lead the Lakers to a championship in 2018-19? Not necessarily. The Warriors are still…well, the Warriors. I also think LeBron leaving the East will open things up for my Celtics.
Nonetheless, I have little doubt as to who I think will emerge as this offseason’s undisputed winner. And since I believe the Lakers will be armed next season with at least two of the five best players in basketball, the time is now to get on the L.A. betting bandwagon.
