It’s that time of year again: I’m suffering from football withdrawal, and while I might think endless basketball is the only medicine for my troubles, a return for baseball is surely another solid remedy.
Since it gained its current slate of teams in 1998, the American League East has been touted as one of, if not the most competitive division in baseball, largely due to the constant success of the Yankees and Red Sox. For the last five years, however, we’ve seen a discrepancy in this rivalry. Either the Yanks are good one year, while the Sox sputter, or the Sox reign supreme while the Yankees take a back seat. In 2018, however, the rivalry is due to heat up. As I go through the division, you’ll see why.
Here are my win-loss predictions for each AL East team in 2018, as well as how I think the division will stack up from first to last.
1/ New York Yankees (Projected W-L: 96-66)
The Yankees are the most improved team in the division, due to their acquisition of slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton slugged 59 home runs a year ago, the most in Major League Baseball since 2001. New York now boasts a lineup of Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorious. Each of those five players offers something different at the plate, but together, they could be one of the best hitting groups we’ve seen in some time. What it will come down to is this: can Stanton come close to what he did at the dish a year ago, and can Sanchez hit for both average and power?
Pitching will be a strong point for the Yankees in ’18, as Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka anchor a rotation that ate up innings in ’17. However, I feel this rotation could use a boost, as C.C. Sabathia isn’t getting any younger. Look for the Yanks to pick up a durable arm at or near the trade deadline to assist its aging rotation. The bullpen is going to be one of the best in the American League, as Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman look to lock down the last two innings of each ballgame. New manager Aaron Boone will have a lot of weapons at his fingertips.
2/ Boston Red Sox (Projected W-L: 91-71)
The Red Sox didn’t do enough in the offseason to bolster itself at the plate or on the mound. Negotiations continue between the Sox brass and Arizona slugger J.D. Martinez, but with Spring Training upon us, it’s hard to imagine a deal going down this late in February. The Sox will have to work with what they have on offense, but let’s be honest; it’s not exactly a bad package in Boston. Dave Dombrowski has been grilled by the Boston sports media for his reluctance to part ways with Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Mookie Betts, but I see a lot of upside with these three. Combined, the “Win, Dance, Repeat” crew hit 61 home runs in 2017. As far as the infield goes, I want to see the Sox pick up a slugger somewhere along the way. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Mitch Moreland are all capable of getting on base, but the Sox need more than occasional spurts of potency.
Pitching is where the Sox could challenge the Yankees. Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello all return to anchor what should be the best rotation in the American League outside of Houston. If this group can tack on innings and load up on K’s, the Bronx Bombers should stay wary of the Sox. Bostonians should expect a Wild-Card spot at least.
Oh, and welcome back, Alex Cora!
3/ Toronto Blue Jays (Projected W-L: 83-79)
The Blue Jays have a damn good lineup on paper. Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Smoak lead the way for the Jays on offense. The rest of the lineup consists largely of aging middle-of-the-road hitters like Russell Martin or Curtis Granderson. If baseball only revolved around who could score the most runs, Toronto would be at or near the top of the league, simply because of their ability to hit for both average and power.
Other than that, it’s just hard to picture their starting rotation doing enough to keep them in contention. Marco Estrada anchors this group, and his ERA in 2017 hovered around five. Marcus Stroman is the guy I expect the most from on this team in 2018, as he went 13-9 a year ago with an ERA of 3.09.
We’ve gotten to the point where the Blue Jays can never really be counted out. Do I think they’ll seriously contend for a playoff spot in 2018? I’d have to say no.
4/ Baltimore Orioles (Projected W-L: 69-93)
The Orioles appeared to be primed for a bounce-back season after a rough 2017 season that saw them go 75-87. That was before Zach Britton went down with an Achilles injury that should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Britton is widely considered to be the best reliever in the American League, so that is a massive blow for Baltimore. A weak starting rotation won’t make things any easier for the O’s.
At the plate, outside of Manny Machado, the only guy who can really be counted on for timely production is Adam Jones, who hit .285 in 2017 with 26 home runs. Mark Trumbo regressed a bit in ’17, as did Chris Davis, whose average continues to slide (the slugger hit just .215 a year ago). I also believe that Machado will be in the trade discussion come July. Look for Machado to land with a contender, and then court any number of teams next winter as he looks for his awaiting payday.
5/ Tampa Bay Rays (Projected W-L: 65-97)
By dealing Evan Longoria to the Giants for prospects and cash, the Rays essentially wove the white flag on the 2018 season, launching a full rebuilding mode in the process. Tampa Bay does boast some offensive power (Stephen Souza Jr. and Logan Morrison each launched more than 30 homers in 2017), but power can’t account for everything, and the Rays don’t have enough consistency to score runs and thus, win games. No one on this team hit higher than .282 last season.
On the mound, the Rays are inexperienced. Alex Cobb led the way in 2017 with a 12-10 record and a 3.66 ERA. Chris Archer, at least for the moment, doesn’t appear to be the ace we all expected to see a few years back. The rest of the rotation will be mediocre at best. The bullpen doesn’t appear to be in any position to improve things at the Trop (washed-up vets and inexperienced youngsters will define this group.)
