No Need to Overthink It: Three Reasons Why Alabama Will Beat Georgia

Spread Bet Saturday: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP Edition

 

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New Year’s Six Bowls: 3-3 (.500)

2017: 55-35-1 (.610)

*Total: 127-94-2 (.574)

*Total dates back to last season

CAPITAL LETTERS indicate pick with the SPREAD

 

Alabama vs Georgia 

Spread: Alabama -3.5           Efficiency Rankings: ALA (5) < GEO (2)

Ever hear the phrase “keep it simple stupid?” Well, if you’re taking Georgia in tonight’s National Championship game, I don’t necessarily think you’re stupid, but I do think you’re overcomplicating things. This isn’t rocket science: Alabama is the best team in the country. That statement is as true now as it was in 2009…and 2011…and 2012…and 2015.

OK, still not convinced? Here are the three reasons why Alabama isn’t losing to Georgia. First, let’s put in perspective what we saw from the Bulldogs in their Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Yes Georgia played really well offensively, but it would have been far more surprising if they hadn’t  dominated the Sooners’ defense. After all, Oklahoma ranked 65th in the nation in opponent yards per play (5.5). That figure was by far  the lowest among all the top ten teams in the AP Poll.

This brings me to point number two: comparing Alabama’s defense to Oklahoma’s is like saying that Lonzo Ball is in the same league as Steph Curry. It’s not even a conversation! The Crimson Tide entered bowl season ranked 2nd in the country in yards allowed. More importantly, ‘Bama’s strength matches up head-on with Georgia’s, as it has allowed a staggeringly low 2.7 yards per rush attempt this season. In other words, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel won’t be rushing for 326 combined rushing yards in this matchup.

And lastly…Saban. Nick Saban. He’s shooting for G.O.A.T. status with another national championship win tonight (it would be his sixth). Plus, take a look at this revealing stat: Saban is 11-0 when facing his former assistant coaches. I think Kirby Smart is a very good coach, and I think Georgia is a formidable team, but it would be foolish to bet against the Crimson Tide, particularly since they’re just 3.5 point favorites.

ALABAMA 31, Georgia 20 

Posted by Mando

Co-Founder of Check Down Sports. Die-hard Boston sports fan: Patriots, Celtics, Bruins- in that order. I haven't been that interested in the Red Sox since they traded Manny. If you're a fan of Leslie Nielson movies and/or think Entourage is overrated, we'll get along.

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