NFL Week 10 Picks: The Patriots Will Once Again Be Tested At Denver

Week 10 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

****Note – Yards per Play Differential Rankings are calculated by subtracting Yards per Play from Opponent Yards per Play

 

Records Entering Week 10

Straight Up: 91-41 (.689)               Last Week: 10-3 (.769)               Total: 255-142-2 (.642) 

Spread: 79-46-7 (.625)                   Last Week: 5-7-1 (.423)             Total: 229-155-15 (.590)

Over/Under: 74-55-3 (.572)           Last Week: 5-7-1 (.423)                Total: 216-180-3 (.545)

Locks: 10-3 (.769)                            Last Week: 0-0 (.000)               Total: 42-9 (.824)

Best Bets: 34-20 (.630)                  Last Week: 1-3 (.250)                 Total: 163-120-1 (.576)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

*Prediction for TNF: SEATTLE 24, Arizona 16       (No Best Bets were placed)

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) vs Washington Redskins (4-4)

Spread: MIN -1.5              Over/Under: 40.5

DVOA: MIN (6) > WSH (16)

YPP Differential: MIN (3) > WSH (15)

Public Betting: WSH 50%

This matchup in D.C. is quietly the most intriguing game of the day. Minnesota is a legitimate contender for a first-round bye, while the Redskins, who shocked Seattle last week, remain firmly in the playoff race despite playing the league’s hardest schedule through nine weeks. Washington is solid on both sides of the ball, as it is one of only seven teams in the NFL to rank in the top fourteen in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Minnesota may have a stout defense, but its offense is a tad shaky due to instability at the quarterback position. Although Case Keenum (64.3 Total QBR, 5th in the NFL) has been surprisingly effective this year, I’ll take Kirk Cousins and the ‘Skins at home.

WASHINGTON 24, Minnesota 18 

 

 

Green Bay Packers (4-4) vs Chicago Bears (3-5)

Spread: CHI -5.5              Over/Under: 37.5

DVOA: GB (15) > CHI (26)

YPP Differential: GB (29) < CHI (21)

Public Betting: CHI 54%

Both of these offenses are anemic, so expect a low-scoring game between these two NFC North rivals. Green Bay’s offense is averaging just 14.7 points per game since Brett Hundley took over at quarterback for an injured Aaron Rodgers. Chicago’s offense with rookie Mitchell Trubisky, however, has not been much better: it’s only averaging roughly 15 offensive points per game. Even though the Bears have an above-average defense, I can’t bring myself to take an offense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards per drive to cover as 5.5 point favorites. And while I’m at it, I’ll take Hundley to notch his first professional win and put the Packers back over .500.

GREEN BAY 19, Chicago 17 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) vs Indianapolis Colts (3-6)

Spread: PIT -10                Over/Under: 45

DVOA: PIT (2) > IND (28)

YPP Differential: PIT (4) > IND (32)

Public Betting: PIT 69%

Don’t let Indianapolis’ brief flashes of competence fool you. The Colts are one of the weakest teams in the NFL, as evidenced by their league-worst yards per play differential (-1.3). The only reason they have three wins is because they’ve played both of the NFL’s winless teams–Cleveland and San Francisco–as well as one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks in Houston’s Tom Savage. The 6-2 Steelers should have little trouble prevailing.

*PITTSBURGH 29, Indianapolis 13

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (3-5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

Spread: JAC -4.5                Over/Under: 41

DVOA: LAC (22) < JAC (5)

YPP Differential: LAC (10) < JAC (2)

Public Betting: LAC 52%

All aboard the Jaguars bandwagon! Their defense is phenomenal, particularly against the pass, where they rank first in a number of metrics. The Chargers have an emerging defense of their own (they rank 9th against the pass and 5th in adjusted sack rate), but they struggle against the run, ranking just 28th in opponent yards per rush attempt. Jacksonville should have enough success pounding Leonard Fournette and its second-ranked rushing offense to move to 6-3.

JACKSONVILLE 23, Los Angeles 17 

 

 

New York Jets (4-5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)

Spread: NYJ -2.5               Over/Under: 43.5

DVOA: NYJ (24) > TB (25)

YPP Differential: NYJ (18) > TB (22)

Public Betting: NYJ 67%

The Patriots fan in me would love  to see Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will start in place of Jameis Winston, torch his former team and send the Jets back to their losing ways. But I have to be objective. Even though I wouldn’t be surprised if the 2-6 Buccaneers snapped their five-game losing streak against the Jets, Tampa continues to be ravaged by injuries. Not only will Winston miss this game, but the Bucs’ defense may be without a few a number of other key players, like DT Gerald McCoy (shoulder), CB Brent Grimes (shoulder), and DE Robert Ayers (ankle). Of course, Tampa will also be without the services of its best offensive playmaker, receiver Mike Evans (suspension), as well. New York should take advantage of these absences to win in what I bet will be a high-scoring, turnover-laden affair.

NEW YORK 30, Tampa Bay 24

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) vs Tennessee Titans (5-3)

Spread: TEN -4.5                 Over/Under: 40.5

DVOA: CIN (21) < TEN (17)

YPP Differential: CIN (13) < TEN (11)

Public Betting: TEN 57%

A loss on Sunday might squash Cincinnati’s playoff hopes. But the good news for the Bengals is that they are evenly matched with Tennessee. Marvin Lewis’ squad may rank just 23rd in net points per drive, but the Titans only rank 20th in the same category. I think Cincinnati’s underrated defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in opponent yards per play can keep an erratic Titans offense that has been held under 15 points three times this season in check. Give me the Bengals with both the spread and moneyline over Tennessee.

CINCINNATI 23, Tennessee 20 

 

 

New Orleans Saints (6-2) vs Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Spread: NO -3                Over/Under: 48

DVOA: NO (4) > BUF (18)

YPP Differential: NO (6) > BUF (26)

Public Betting: NO 51%

I predicted the Saints will reach the NFC Championship in my latest Sunday Recap. However, there is a school of thought that I’m overreacting. New Orleans has played just the 21st toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and in recent weeks they have beaten the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Bears, and the Buccaneers. Obviously none of those teams are very formidable.

With regard to this matchup, though, I think the most important factor will be how this game will take place in a cold-weather environment (the temperature projects to be in the mid-30’s at kickoff). It is common knowledge that New Orleans has historically been less potent away from the Superdome. And with a rush-defense that ranks 29th in the NFL, LeSean McCoy should have a big day and guide Buffalo to a quasi-upset over the Saints.

BUFFALO 25, New Orleans 21

 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-8) vs Detroit Lions (4-4)

Spread: DET -11               Over/Under: 43.5

DVOA: CLE (32) < DET (12)

YPP Differential: CLE (19) > DET (24)

Public Betting: DET 57%

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote an insightful article this week about teams poised for second-half turnarounds. He mentioned that the hapless Browns could be one of those teams, based on their pythagorean win-expectation (1.7 wins, based on their -83 point differential) and unsustainably poor performance in the red-zone. So that’s good news if you’re a Browns fan! Only problem, though, is that their first win won’t come this week against a Lions team playing sneaky-good defense.

Detroit 27, CLEVELAND 20 

 

 

Houston Texans (3-5) vs Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Spread: LA -12                Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: HOU (11) < LA (1)

YPP Differential: HOU (31) < LA (5)

Public Betting: LA 78%

The LA Rams are no joke. Thanks to their 51-17 win over the Giants last week (their third by 30+ points), the Rams supplanted the Steelers and Eagles as the number one team in football according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Their league-leading offense should have no trouble outscoring the Texans, who have scored just one offensive touchdown in eighteen drives led by quarterback Tom Savage this season.

*LOS ANGELES 30, Houston 16 

 

 

New York Giants (1-7) vs San Francisco 49ers (0-9)

Spread: NYG -2.5             Over/Under: 42

DVOA: NYG (29) > SF (30)

YPP Differential: NYG (28) < SF (27)

Public Betting: NYG 64%

The 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo two weeks ago, yet head coach Kyle Shanahan has opted to start ineffective rookie C.J. Beathard once again. I understand that Garoppolo might not have been ready to start last Sunday having only been in San Francisco for less than a week, but shouldn’t he be ready now? Regardless, I suppose I have even less confidence in the 49ers than I do in the spiraling Giants.

NEW YORK 23, San Francisco 20 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys (5-3) vs Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

Spread: ATL -3.5             Over/Under: 48.5

DVOA: DAL (7) > ATL (19)

YPP Differential: DAL (7) < ATL (1)

Public Betting: DAL 66%

How will Dallas fare without Ezekiel Elliott? Well, I suppose it helps that the Cowboys are playing a weak Atlanta defense that ranks just 29th in total defense according to Football Outsiders (and 29th against the run). That should help Dak Prescott enormously, as he has the fourth-best passer rating off play-action fakes this season (126.0).

But on the other side of the ball, I doubt that the Cowboys’ 23rd-ranked defense will be able to slow down an Atlanta offense due for a breakout. The Falcons are averaging just under 21 points per game (17th in the NFL), but they rank first in the league in yards per play. In other words, Atlanta has essentially been derailed by turnovers (13th in the NFL) and shaky red-zone execution (18th in red-zone TD%). And it is misguided to say that this hasn’t been largely due to luck: after all, Matt Ryan has thrown just two passes deemed “turnover-worthy” by Pro Football Focus, yet has seven picks on the year.

The Falcons will get back on track this week with a much-needed win over Dallas.

Atlanta 31, DALLAS 28

 

 

New England Patriots (6-2) vs Denver Broncos (3-5)

Spread: NE -7.5                Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: NE (10) > DEN (23)

YPP Differential: NE (25) < DEN (12)

Public Betting: NE 78%

I wouldn’t abandon faith in the 3-5 Broncos just yet. Last week’s 51-23 blow out loss to the Eagles was simply an anomaly for the normally-terrific Denver defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Broncos’ defense still registers as the 6th-best in football this season despite playing the 3rd-toughest slate of opposing offenses. It also is allowing just 24 yards per drive, which is the second-best figure in the NFL.

But if the Broncos rank so highly in all of these important defensive metrics, why are they just 25th in scoring defense? The answer is two-fold, and it actually has nothing to do with its defense. First, their offense is terrible. Since Week 2, they’ve averaged roughly 13 points per game; and if you discount garbage-time touchdowns (i.e. scores in the fourth quarter when one team’s win probability is above 99%), this average drops to a horrific 10 points per game. Second, their special teams is equally brutal: the Broncos rank only 28th in this neglected area of play according to Football Outsiders and are particularly poor covering kickoffs and punts.

Combined with the Broncos’ inability to score, Denver’s defense has been subjected to the worst average starting field-position in the NFL this season (line of scrimmage: 35 yard-line). That is great news for a New England offense that has routinely struggled in Denver despite always having one of the league’s most prolific attacks. In their last four trips to the Mile High alone, the Patriots have averaged just under 19 points per game. And since they will be without the services of receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) and offensive tackle Marcus Cannon (ankle), points will once again be hard to come by for Tom Brady and company.

Yet because the Broncos’ offense has struggled mightily to not only score, but protect the football this season (it ranks 2nd in the NFL in giveaways with 2.4 per game), the Patriots should take advantage of a few short-fields and escape Denver with a victory.

New England 23, DENVER 20 

 

 

And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Ten…

• TEASER: Minnesota vs Washington OVER 34 & GREEN BAY (+12) over Chicago
• PITTSBURGH (-500) over Indianapolis
• New York vs Tampa Bay OVER 43.5
• TEASER: CINCINNATI (+11) over Tennessee & CLEVELAND (+17.5) over Detroit
• New Orleans vs Buffalo UNDER 48
• TEASER: BUFFALO (+9.5) over New Orleans & LOS ANGELES (-5.5) over Houston
• Dallas vs Atlanta OVER 48.5
• DENVER (+7.5) over New England
• New England vs Denver UNDER 45.5