Week Eleven Edition
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Last Week: 7-4 (.636)
2017: 34-26 (.567)
*Total: 106-85-2 (.554)
*Total dates back to last season
Home team in italics
*Friday Game
*Stanford (+6) over #9 Washington
The ninth-ranked Huskies may have the nation’s third-best scoring defense, but the Cardinal is the one receiving the action from sharp bettors. Stanford is only being backed by 27% of the public, but the spread has dropped from -7 to -6. That’s a sure indicator that the guys who do this for a living have put big money on the home underdog. But even though I expect Stanford to keep it close, I like Washington’s defense, which has only allowed one opponent this season to score over 20 points, to prevail.
#13 Ohio State (-15.5) over #12 Michigan State
The Buckeyes find themselves in a rare position. They’re a sizable public underdog, as only 21% of bettors like them to cover the 15.5 point spread. But as I’ve mentioned before: when in doubt, it is best to side with the House rather than the public. Michigan State is being overrated based on its recent upset victory over Penn State last week in East Lansing. The Spartans are just 83rd in the country in yards per play (Ohio State, for the record, is 4th) and they are a unsustainable 5-1 in one-score games. The Buckeyes will redeem themselves this weekend by blowing out Michigan State.
#15 Oklahoma State (-6.5) over #21 Iowa State
Tough game to call. Both teams are coming off losses, but I think it’s Iowa State’s most recent performances that have been most concerning. Sure, the Cyclones beat fourth-ranked TCU two weeks ago, but they scored just 14 points. In all, Iowa State is now averaging just 5.4 yards per play on the season (65th in the nation). Oklahoma State, in contrast, unequivocally has one of the nation’s best offenses, ranking first in the country in points per game. I’ll take the Cowboys by at least a touchdown.
Boston College (+3) over #23 N.C. State
I rarely give my hometown team any love, largely because they are usually terrible. But Boston College has been a pleasant surprise this year. Since mid-October, the Eagles have upset Louisville on the road and destroyed Florida State at home. And with an offense that has suddenly found its groove (BC is averaging over 40 points in its last three games), I’ll take them to pull the upset over a ranked opponent.
#4 Clemson (-16.5) over Florida State
The 3-5 Seminoles will be in grave danger of not being bowl-eligible (as if that is much of an accomplishment anyway) after their visit to Death Valley. Clemson’s 6th-ranked defense should feast on an FSU offense that ranks a dreadful 94th in the nation in yards per play.
#20 Iowa (+12.5) over #8 Wisconsin
With a road win over Iowa State, an extremely close loss to Penn State (it lost on the final play of the game), and last week’s blowout win over Ohio State, Iowa has put together an impressive resume this season. The Hawkeyes will play another strong opponent on Saturday, but since Wisconsin has yet to play a ranked opponent this season, I don’t trust them as 12.5 point favorites. I’ll take Iowa to keep this game within a touchdown.
#10 Auburn (+2.5) over #1 Georgia
On a neutral field, I would take Georgia, who ranks 4th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). But college football is predicated on chaos. And since Auburn is no slouch — in fact, it ranks 8th overall in FPI (the Bulldogs are 6th) — I’ll take the number one team in the nation to go down.
#2 Alabama (-14) over #16 Mississippi State
Nick Saban’s squad has been a bit of a sleeping giant all season. But we can’t overlook how dominant the Crimson Tide have been, as they’ve allowed just one opponent to score over 20 points this season (and it was Colorado State, of all teams). Combined with an offense that’s averaging a shade over 40 points per game, Alabama will have little trouble with a Mississippi State team that lost to both Georgia and Auburn by a combined score of 80-13.
#5 Oklahoma (-6.5) over #6 TCU
Baker Mayfield and the Sooners are a statistical darling, at least on offense. Yards per play? First in the nation. Points per game? Third. Passing offense? First. The only problem, though, is that Oklahoma’s defense is the antithesis of its offense: it ranks just 118th in the country, for instance, in opponent yards per play over the last three weeks. But can TCU’s outstanding defense hold Mayfield and company in check? I’d wager no. Oklahoma will hold serve at home.
Game of the Week
#3 Notre Dame (-3.5) over #7 Miami
I wrongly predicted that Miami would lose to Virginia Tech last week because I thought the undefeated Hurricanes were overrated. I turned out to be wrong, but I’m still standing by my arguments: Miami has had four victories against moderate competition that were by one-possession or fewer. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has won a staggering seven games this season by at least 20 points; and that includes wins over three ranked opponents: Michigan State, USC, and NC State. I’ll take the Fighting Irish to secure another commanding win and move one step closer to the College Football Playoff.
