The Sunday Recap: Are the Eagles the New Favorites to Win Super Bowl LII?

Welcome to the latest edition of The Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action!

 

We’re officially past the halfway point in the regular season, meaning it’s a perfect time to revise my preseason predictions. But before I offer my updated take on which teams will meet in Super Bowl LII, I’ve gone through every remaining game from now until Week 17 and have new picks for how the AFC and NFC playoff fields will look come January. Let’s start with the AFC. 

 

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Record: 6-2  /  Predicted Record: 13-3

Here is why the Steelers will overcome both the Patriots and Chiefs to secure the number one seed. First, they have an unbelievably easy remaining schedule. Pittsburgh plays in arguably the weakest division in football and has just the 27th hardest slate of games the rest of the way. However, New England (25th) and Kansas City (29th) have relatively easy schedules too, at least according to Football Outsiders. But the Steelers’ situation is more favorable because a) they’ll play New England in their toughest and most important remaining game at Heinz Field in Week 15, and b) they already own the tiebreaker against the Chiefs, having beat them a few weeks ago at Arrowhead.

Pittsburgh has the strongest defense among the AFC’s three top contenders and its offense has two of the best playmakers in the NFL. I think the Steelers will beat the Patriots at home and only lose one game the rest of the regular season.

 

 

2.  New England Patriots

Current Record: 6-2  /  Predicted Record: 12-4

3.  Kansas City Chiefs

Current Record: 6-3 /  Predicted Record: 11-5

I lumped the Pats and Chiefs together for a reason. As mentioned in the last paragraph, both teams have relatively easy remaining schedules (although I don’t necessarily find anything easy  about New England’s trips to Denver, Oakland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh). With that said, I like my Patriots to match their 6-2 first half of the season and nip Kansas City for a first round bye. Of course, this means the Chiefs will have to lose two more games in order for this to happen because they own the tiebreaker over the Patriots thanks to their opening night win.

But clearly Kansas City is going the wrong way. Andy Reid’s squad has now lost three out of four after a 5-0 start and its defense continues to be one of the most overrated units in the league. Even though they have tough road games on tap over the next few weeks, Tom Brady and New England’s top-ranked offense will be tough to beat on a weekly basis. I see them losing in Mexico City to the Raiders and at Pittsburgh, but ultimately have them finishing a respectable 12-4.

 

 

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Record: 5-3  /  Predicted Record: 10-6

5.  Tennessee Titans

Current Record: 5-3  /  Predicted Record: 9-7

Have a tough time picturing Blake Bortles leading the Jaguars to a division title? Yeah, it still hasn’t really set in for me either. But Jacksonville is the strongest team in the AFC South because it possess the NFL’s best defense. Ranked first in total defense entering the week, the Jaguars held their fifth  opponent to under ten points in a 23-7 win over the Bengals. And even without stud cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was ejected after his fight with A.J. Green yesterday, Jacksonville still held Cincinnati to just 4.0 yards per play and Andy Dalton to only 138 yards passing. Coupled with the league’s easiest remaining schedule, the Jaguars will not only be playoff bound, but they’ll top a Titans team that has been erratic on a week-to-week basis and host a home playoff game. Go figure.

 

6.  Buffalo Bills

Current Record: 5-3  /  Predicted Record: 9-7

As mentioned, I ran through each of the remaining games from now until Week 17 and predicted who will each matchup. I ultimately had Buffalo finishing with the same record as Oakland. And since the pesky Bills beat the Raiders a week ago, it looks like Buffalo will snap its seventeen-year playoff drought! Again, go figure!

 

Now over to the NFC…

 

1.  Philadelphia Eagles

Current Record: 8-1  /  Predicted Record: 13-3

After their 51-point outburst against the vaunted Denver defense, the Eagles are now the unequivocal favorites to win Super Bowl LII. If it wasn’t evident before, it is evident now that Carson Wentz, who now leads the league in touchdown passes after throwing four against the Broncos, is the real deal. Plus, with formidable players on both the offensive and defensive lines, Philadelphia is imposing up front and should be capable of running the ball effectively come January, especially after acquiring running back Jay Ajayi, who scampered for a 46-yard touchdown run in his debut yesterday.

The Eagles are 5-0 at Lincoln Financial Field and 6-0 in conference against fellow NFC opponents. If Philly manages to secure the one seed come season’s end (which I think it will), the Eagles will be tough to beat. They’re easily the likeliest bet of all the other thirty-one teams to reach Minneapolis for Super Bowl LII.

 

 

2.  Minnesota Vikings

Current Record: 6-2  /  Predicted Record: 11-5

3.  New Orleans Saints

Current Record: 6-2  /  Predicted Record: 11-5

Another situation in which tiebreakers will prove to be crucial. The Vikings cruised past the Saints on Monday Night Football back in Week One. Although New Orleans has lost only once since, the Saints’ winning streak probably won’t last forever. And with Minnesota continuing to play extremely well defensively, the Vikings can take advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ absence and finish with a 5-3 record over their remaining eight games.

 

 

4.  Seattle Seahawks

Current Record: 5-3  /  Predicted Record: 11-5

5.  Los Angeles Rams

Current Record: 6-2  /  Predicted Record: 11-5

Los Angeles, who spanked the Giants 51-17 in the Meadowlands yesterday, currently holds a one game lead over the Seahawks, who lost in surprising fashion at home to the Redskins. Regardless, I still have just a tad  more faith in Seattle over these next two months. Its defense may not be as strong as it was a few years ago, but it is still one of the league’s more formidable units. And I know Jared Goff and company have looked great so far, but the Rams have some tough games coming up: over these next five weeks alone, they will play Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Seattle. Those are arguably the four strongest teams in the NFC! And with that game against the Seahawks taking place on the road, I think the Rams will finish 11-5 but ultimately miss out on a chance to host a home playoff game because Seattle will sweep the season series.

 

6.  Dallas Cowboys 

Current Record: 5-3  /  Predicted Record: 10-6

I had a log-jam for the sixth seed in the NFC: Dallas, Washington, and Carolina all finished 10-6 in my “simulation.” The Cowboys got the edge over the Redskins because Washington is 0-3 in the NFC East. Dallas, in contrast, is 2-0 within the division. I don’t see the ‘Skins making up that all-important gap. And as for the 10-6 Panthers…well, I guess I just would rather have Dak Prescott and Dallas in my postseason!

 

 

Playoff Predictions! New England vs Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII

 

Wild Card Round

3) Kansas City Chiefs over 6) Buffalo Bills

No matter who the sixth seed is in the AFC, it will lose in the wild card round.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars over 5) Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is the real deal, I’m telling you! Its defense is one of the best in recent memory and it will be enough for the ‘Jags to move to make a surprise divisional round appearance.

3) New Orleans Saints over 6) Dallas Cowboys

This would be an epic affair! I’ll give the Saints the slight edge, even though Dallas’ running game makes them a Super Bowl dark horse.

4) Seattle Seahawks over 5) Los Angeles Rams 

Seattle isn’t losing a playoff game at home, right?

 

Divisional Round

1) Pittsburgh Steelers over 4) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars did beat the Steelers 30-9 at Heinz Field a month ago……nah, I can’t actually have Jacksonville in the AFC Championship!

2) New England Patriots over 3) Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs did beat the Patriots 42-27 at Gillette two months ago…..nah, I can’t pick against my Patriots!

1) Philadelphia Eagles over 4) Seattle Seahawks

The Legion of Boom is no longer invincible.

3) New Orleans Saints over 2) Minnesota Vikings

The Saints’ defense has improved significantly since the Vikings thrashed it in Week One. There is always at least one upset in the Divisional Round, so I’ll side with Drew Brees.

 

AFC Championship: New England over Pittsburgh

Patriots/Steelers playoff meetings haven’t gone well for the Steelers. And even though Pittsburgh has an improved defense, it’s hard to bet against Tom Brady and the New England offense.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans

The Saints’ main weakness has always been their inability to play well outdoors. In cold elements, I’ll take Philadelphia to prevail in this hypothetical NFC title game.

 

Super Bowl LII: New England over Philadelphia

A rematch of Super Bowl XXXLIX back in 2005, which Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won 24-21. Some things…never change. My subjective take is that the Patriots’ offense can find holes in an Eagles’ defense that ranks just 19th in opponent yards per play. It also would be reasonable to expect a young quarterback like Wentz to struggle in such an environment. For every Tom Brady and Russell Wilson who performs exceptionally well in their Super Bowl debut, there is a Ben Roethlisberger, who in his second season had one of the worst games for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in the Steelers’ win in Super Bowl XL over Seattle, and a Cam Newton, who struggled mightily when Carolina was upset by Denver in Super Bowl 50.

There is still a long  way to go, but a Patriots/Eagles Super Bowl is one of the likeliest matchups. And boy would it be terrific!

 

 

Monday Night Prediction

Detroit Lions (3-4) vs Green Bay Packers (4-3)

Spread: DET -2              Over/Under: 43

DVOA: DET (13) > GB (17)

This is a must win situation for the Lions. If they want any chance to make the playoffs, they need to beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay team on the road. And I think they will. Matthew Stafford is having another solid season and its defense surprisingly ranks 7th in defensive DVOA. The Packers’ key players like Jordy Nelson and Clay Matthews will make it interesting, but Detroit has an edge at quarterback and should hold Brett Hundley and the Green Bay offense to a low-point total.

DETROIT 23, Green Bay 17