NFL Week 7 Picks: Will Atlanta Exact Revenge on New England?

Week 7 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

****Note – Yards per Play Differential calculated as Yards per Play minus Opponent Yards per Play

 

Records Entering Week 6

Straight Up: 61-30 (.670)               Last Week: 8-6 (.571)               Total: 225-131-2 (.631)

Spread: 59-28-4 (.670)                   Last Week: 9-5 (.643)              Total: 209-137-13 (.600)

Over/Under: 55-34-2 (.615)           Last Week: 9-5 (.643)               Total: 197-159-2 (.553)

Locks: 8-3 (.727)                            Last Week: 3-2 (.600)                Total: 40-9 (.816)

Best Bets: 27-14 (.658)                  Last Week: 3-3 (.500)               Total: 156-114-1 (.577)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

*Prediction for TNF: OAKLAND 27, Kansas City 23    (No Best Bets were placed) 

CAPITAL LETTERS indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs Cleveland Browns (0-6)

Spread: TEN -6            Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: TEN (20) > CLE (32)

YPP Differential: TEN (+0.4) > CLE (-0.4) 

Public Betting: TEN 71%

Football betting 101: bet against the Browns.

*TENNESSEE 31, Cleveland 17

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) vs Indianapolis Colts (2-4)

Spread: JAC -3             Over/Under: 43

DVOA: JAC (13) > IND (31)

YPP Differential: JAC (+0.5) > IND (-1.3)

Public Betting: JAC 65%

Jaguars rookie sensation Leonard Fournette is questionable after sustaining what looked to be a nasty foot injury last week. Even if he plays, I have a hard time believing the former LSU star will be effective, even against a Colts defense that ranks 31st in opponent yards per play. Indianapolis should look to exploit Jacksonville’s weak run defense (32nd in the NFL) and avoid putting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in difficult down-and-distance situations against the Jaguars’ stout pass D. Look for this game to go way  under 43 points and for the Colts to pull a quasi-upset.

INDIANAPOLIS 19, Jacksonville 13

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

Spread: PIT -5.5              Over/Under: 40.5

DVOA: CIN (14) < PIT (2)

YPP Differential: CIN (+0.9) > PIT (+0.7)

Public Betting: CIN 54%

The Steelers’ defense proved it was the real deal last week in their win over Kansas City. But let’s not sleep on this Cincinnati defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL in opponent yards per play. The one caveat, though, is that it has played the third-easiest slate of opposing offenses. So is this unit for real? We’ll find out based on how it fares against Le’Veon Bell and company. My bet is that the Bengals hang around, but Pittsburgh’s D will do enough to stifle Andy Dalton and company.

Pittsburgh 24, CINCINNATI 20 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) vs Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Spread: MIN -4.5             Over/Under: 38.5

DVOA: BAL (12) < MIN (5)

YPP Differential: BAL (-0.5) < MIN (+0.8)

Public Betting: MIN 57%

Baltimore’s offense is horrible.  No matter the stat, the numbers don’t look pretty. The Ravens rank 31st in yards per drive; 30th in yards per play; and Joe Flacco is 30th in Total QBR. Minnesota, meanwhile, has the 5th-best scoring defense in the NFL. I like the way quarterback Case Keenum has played in place of Sam Bradford (Keenum is 7th in Total QBR), so I’ll take the home team in a rout.

MINNESOTA 21, Baltimore 10 

 

 

New York Jets (3-3) vs Miami Dolphins (3-3)

Spread: MIA -3            Over/Under: 38

DVOA: NYJ (28) > MIA (29)

YPP Differential: NYJ (-0.1) > MIA (-1.3)

Public Betting: MIA 59%

Given how thoroughly they beat Miami a few weeks ago, I like the Jets in this matchup. New York dominated the Dolphins in Week 3, holding them to just 225 yards of offense and a lone garbage-time touchdown. What has changed since then? If anything, Jay Cutler has gotten worse.  Plus, it’s not like Hard Rock Stadium has a history of providing a great home-field advantage.

NEW YORK 20, Miami 16

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) vs Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Spread: BUF -3               Over/Under: 45

DVOA: TB (24) < BUF (15)

YPP Differential: TB (+0.1) > BUF (-0.6)

Public Betting: BUF 74%

Uncertainty surrounding Jameis Winston’s injured throwing shoulder had me initially leaning toward Buffalo. But it appears Winston is good to go. That means Tampa Bay and its underrated offense could bounce back after two consecutive losses. The Buccaneers rank 5th in yards per drive, and if not for poor special teams, Tampa would rank higher than 13th in points per game. The Bills certainly have a solid defense, but I don’t think their offense (27th in points per game) has enough firepower to take advantage of the Bucs’ below-average unit. I’ll side with Tampa to win on the road.

TAMPA BAY 23, Buffalo 20

 

 

Carolina Panthers (4-2) vs Chicago Bears (2-4) 

Spread: CAR -3               Over/Under: 41

DVOA: CAR (16) > CHI (31)

YPP Differential: CAR (+0.1) > CHI (-0.1)

Public Betting: CAR 75%

Chicago’s style of play has kept it in many games this season against competitive teams. Last week, for instance, the Bears ran the ball a staggering 54 times (and only attempted 17 passes) in a 27-24 win at Baltimore. A few weeks earlier, they beat Pittsburgh using a similar strategy, gaining over 200+ yards rushing on 38 carries. With Luke Kuechly out, Carolina’s run defense doesn’t project to be as formidable, so I’ll take Chicago to grind out another victory.

CHICAGO 23, Carolina 21

 

 

New Orleans Saints (3-2) vs Green Bay Packers (4-2)

Spread: NO -4                Over/Under: 47.5

DVOA: NO (8) > GB (18)

YPP Differential: NO (+0.1) > GB (-0.3)

Public Betting: NO 61%

Drew Brees or Brett Hundley…..I’ll go with Drew Brees.

NEW ORLEANS 27, Green Bay 17 

 

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-3) vs Los Angeles Rams (4-2)

Spread: LA -3               Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: ARZ (26) < LA (4)

YPP Differential: ARZ (+0.1) < LA (+0.5)

Public Betting: ARZ (54%)

Note: this game will take place in London. And that means this game is tough to predict because many of these London contests have been unpredictable. The Rams look like the better team, but it’s tough to evaluate the Cardinals. They put together their best performance last week against Tampa Bay thanks to over 100 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson in his debut. Was that a fluke? Or does the thirty-two year-old still have something left in the tank? For some reason, I’m leaning toward the former. I’ll take Los Angeles to have enough success against an exploitable Arizona defense to move to 5-2.

LOS ANGELES 24, Arizona 20 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) vs San Francisco 49ers (0-6)

Spread: DAL -6.5             Over/Under: 48.5

DVOA: DAL (19) > SF (27)

YPP Differential: DAL (+0.4) > SF (-0.4)

Public Betting: DAL 67%

The 49ers aren’t nearly as bad as their winless record indicates. In fact, they just set an NFL record for losing their fifth  consecutive game by three points or less. With that said, I like Dallas to take care of business with ease. San Francisco hardly has a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium, and I don’t think the 49ers defense, which is 28th in points allowed per drive, will contain Dak Prescott and company, who is rested after a bye and ranks 4th in points per drive.

DALLAS 33, San Francisco 16 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) vs New York Giants (1-5)

Spread: SEA -4               Over/Under: 39.5

DVOA: SEA (9) > NYG (25)

YPP Differential: SEA (+0.0) > NYG (-0.3) 

Public Betting: SEA 57%

Like everyone, I thought the Giants, who literally lost their entire receiving corps two weeks ago, had no hope against Denver’s elite pass defense last Sunday night. Maybe I’ll be right this time around? The Seahawks and their terrific pass defense should start rounding into top form this week after a workmanlike victory over New York.

SEATTLE 23, New York 13 

 

 

Denver Broncos (3-2) vs Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)

Spread: Pick ’em               Over/Under: 40.5

DVOA: DEN (21) > LAC (23)

YPP Differential: DEN (+0.7) > LAC (+0.3) 

Public Betting: DEN 70%

Los Angeles’ two most important offensive players–running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen–were both severely limited in practice this past week due to injuries and are listed as questionable heading into this AFC West battle. Both are expected to play, but how effective will they be? Denver’s defense (8th in defensive DVOA) should benefit from these two injuries, and I like its offense to bounce back after a poor showing against the Giants.

DENVER 28, Los Angeles 17 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons (3-2) vs New England Patriots (4-2)

Spread: NE -3               Over/Under: 56.5

DVOA: ATL (17) < NE (10)

YPP Differential: ATL (+1.3) > NE (-0.5) 

Public Betting: NE 51%

Expect plenty of points in this Super Bowl rematch. The Falcons should regain their offensive groove after two subpar performances against a New England pass defense that not only ranks last  in opponent yards per pass attempt, but will be without cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe, as well. It will be a miracle if Bill Belichick finds an answer to contain Julio Jones and that explosive receiving corps.

However, Atlanta’s defense has many concerns, too. After allowing Tom Brady and the New England offense to storm back in the second half last February, the Falcons will now have to contend with two dynamic weapons that did not  participate in that affair: tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Heard of either of them? It will be vital for Atlanta to generate pressure on Brady in order to ease the burden on its secondary. Yet even though the Patriots have been shaky up front this season, the Falcons rank just 18th in sack percentage.

Matt Ryan will assuredly become the seventh quarterback to top over 300 passing yards against Bill Belichick’s defense, meaning that this game, like many of New England’s contests this season, could come down to the final possession. Nonetheless, I’ll side with the Pats to beat an Atlanta team reeling from consecutive defeats to the Bills and Dolphins. The poor Falcons will have their hearts broken in another thriller once again.

NEW ENGLAND 34, Atlanta 28 

 

And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Seven…

• TENNESSEE (-250) over Cleveland
• Jacksonville vs Indianapolis UNDER 43
• MINNESOTA (-220) over Baltimore
• DALLAS (-260) over San Francisco
• TEASER: ATLANTA (+9.5) over New England & Atlanta vs New England OVER 50