Week 13 Edition
Last Week: 5-4 (.556)
Last Five: 29-18 (.617)
Total: 61-48-1 (.559)
Georgia Tech (+4.5) over Georgia
This is an evenly matched game, so I’ll take the points. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Bulldogs rated slightly higher than the Yellow Jackets; however, Football Outsiders’ FEI ratings favors Georgia Tech. If we look to net yards per play differential, though, than Georgia Tech has great value with the spread. Georgia’s net yards per play differential, which can be found by subtracting their defensive minus their offensive yards per play clips, is a mere +0.0 due to their mediocre offense (5.1 yards per play; 92nd in the nation). Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is a superior +0.4 on the season. Combined all this with the fact that the majority of public bettors (63%) like Georgia and I’ll side with the House confidently.
#11 Louisville (-25.5) over Kentucky
I love a rested Louisville team coming off an embarressing blowout loss to Houston. Remember, this Cardinals team is stout in every facet, as they rank in the top ten nationally both offensively and defensively. Kentucky, on the other hand, is very pedestrian–they rank 91st in total efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Louisville by five touchdowns.
Ole Miss (-8) over Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s defense has collapsed: They’re allowing 8.1 yards per play over their last three games. Even with Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly sidelined for the season, I like the Running Rebels to win relatively easily at home.
Notre Dame (+17.5) over #12 USC
There’s a chance that the 4-7 Fighting Irish lie down in their regular season finale. I understand that. But even though they’ve had a horrible season, all seven of Notre Dame’s losses have come by less than a touchdown. Moreover, if we look at what the implied spread should be based on both sides’ net yards per play differentials, than USC should be favored by close to 7 points. In short, the Trojans are overvalued because many are assuming Notre Dame doesn’t show up. Let’s hope that’s not the case.
#4 Clemson (-23.5) over South Carolina
I’m sure Clemson is eager to add another convincing win to their resume. I bet they do against a South Carolina team ranked 80th in FEI.
#9 Colorado (-10) over #22 Utah
Over 60% of bettors like Utah to cover. Yet the line, which opened at -11, has actually moved in favor of Colorado. The sharp money looks to be on the Buffaloes, so that’s where I’ll side.
#15 Florida (+7.5) over #14 Florida State
Florida’s defense, which ranks 5th in the country in opponent yards per play and 9th against the run, should do enough to contain Dalvin Cook and the Florida State offense. After knocking off LSU on the road last week, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they pulled out the outright victory, either.
#13 Auburn (+17.5) over #1 Alabama
There are some injury concerns surrounding Auburn, like whether quarterback Sean White will start and whether explosive running back Kamryn Pettway will be effective after missing the last two games. But I’ll roll the dice and take Auburn to cover in this rivalry matchup. When fully equipped with a healthy Pettway, the Tigers had been one of the country’s best teams during the middle-portion of this season. Even though they’ll face a terrific Alabama front, I bet Auburn has more success running the ball than most teams have had.
With that said, the Crimson Tide shouldn’t have too much trouble moving to 12-0.
Game of the Week
#3 Michigan (+6.5) over #2 Ohio State
This prediction is contingent on Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight starting–he’s questionable with a shoulder injury. If Speight does start, though, I love the Wolverines against the spread for a couple of reasons. First, while this Ohio State offense has looked very good in recent weeks against the likes of Nebraska and Maryland, they have struggled at various points this season. For instance, look no further than last week’s anemic performance against Michigan State; or, refer back to their close wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern where every possession seemed to be a struggle. Michigan’s defense is the best Ohio State will see in the regular season, and I bet J.T. Barrett and company will struggle.
Moreover, this spread seems to be overrating the Buckeyes’ home-field advantage. The Wolverines are ranked right behind Ohio State in both ESPN’s FPI and FEI, suggesting that these teams are essentially even. Their respective net yards per play differentials support this belief as well, as Michigan holds a slight edge over Ohio State (+2.2 vs +2.0).
Assuming Speight starts, I’m taking Michigan to get the outright win over their rival in an epic battle.
