Every Super Bowl champion, with the exception of the ’72 Dolphins, has lost a regular season game. Several–like the 2012 Ravens and 2011 Giants–lose many. For that reason, there’s no reason for Patriots fans to panic after the Seattle Seahawks went into Foxboro Sunday night and sneaked by with a 31-24 win. We lost to a very good football team. Plain and simple.
However, there is one thing to be concerned about, and it’s something I’ve made mentioned of before. Our defense. When we were scoring a bunch of points in routs over the likes of Cincinnati and Buffalo, no one was really paying attention to the other side of the ball. Yet even before Russell Wilson carved us up to the tune of 348 yards and three touchdowns, there were warning signs. The Patriots entered Week 10 ranked only 18th in total defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which measures efficiency. Even more disconcerting, though, was that we ranked just 26th against the pass. Keep in mind: This was before we played Seattle.
The Pats have had their moments defensively against teams such as Houston and Cleveland. However…these moments have come against some of the weaker offenses in the NFL. Even against offenses that few would consider to be elite, we’ve struggled. Remember when Ryan Tannehill led the Dolphins on a second half surge in Week Two? Or when Landry Jones had moments of brilliance in our game against the Steelers a few weeks ago? If you didn’t have a clear recollection then, I bet you have a better one now.
Having said all this, the main implication from our loss to Seattle is that the Patriots will need to secure home field in order to return to the Super Bowl. We’re still the best team in the AFC. Though they’re currently tied with us at 7-2, neither Kansas City or Oakland is likely to beat us in Foxboro. As we saw last January in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs aren’t equipped to pull the upset, particularly if the game is at Gillette. Oakland, meanwhile, poses a challenge because of their prolific offense. However, their defense is just as suspect as ours, meaning Derek Carr and their offense will need to put up at least four touchdowns in order to out-duel Tom Brady.
I guess I could see the Broncos beating us in Foxboro. But the odds of that happening are far lower than if a playoff game were to be played in Denver like it was last year. Moreover, I wouldn’t sleep on the Steelers despite their 4-5 record. Of course, they need to worry about getting in the playoffs before entertaining the thought of beating the Pats. With that said, we were fortunate to face them without Ben Roethlisberger under center. An encounter in the playoffs with a healthy Big Ben would certainly put the onus on Brady and company to come through.
In short, home field is imperative for the Patriots this year. We can absolutely overcome an average-at-best defense to win the AFC just like we did in 2011–it will just be easier if we’re at home throughout January. Of course, the defense could be our downfall if we do make it to Houston. Looking ahead to a potential Super Bowl matchup, it’s obviously natural to worry about Dallas or Seattle derailing our hopes of a fifth Super Bowl title. At that point, it’s simply going to be up to Brady and the offense to out-score either of those two opponents, or potentially a team like Atlanta or Philadelphia if massive upsets were to occur. Whether Belichick can fix the defense enough to lessen the pressure on the offense is up in the air. Yet, in the overall scheme of things, that’s a good problem to have.
A few other thoughts…
The two biggest plays of the game were the Edelman fumble and the final Russell Wilson touchdown pass on third-and-long
That fumble, along with not preventing a touchdown on the Seahawks’ final possession, ultimately doomed the Patriots. Not the goal-line sequence. After Cyrus Jones’ kickoff return to midfield, we were in prime position to at least kick a field goal to take a 27-25 lead with a little over five minutes left. We might’ve even been able to take a one touchdown lead, assuming we converted a two-point conversion (which, given how the final two minutes unfolded, certainly wouldn’t have been a guarantee). Instead, Edelman’s fumble gave Seattle the ball back, with a one-point lead, with just over eight minutes left to play.
Then, on third-and-long deep in Seattle territory, Wilson was able to find Doug Baldwin for his third touchdown of the game to give Seattle a one-touchdown lead. If the Patriots had been able to hold Seattle to a field goal there, then I think this would’ve altered their strategy once they got to the goal-line with just over a minute left to play. Brady wouldn’t have been inclined to sneak it on first down in order to kill more time in an effort to limit Seattle’s time to win on a game-winning field goal. Not only would they have had fewer things to worry about in that situation, but they would’ve been able to put the pressure on Seattle by taking a 31-28 lead (assuming Seattle made a field goal on their previous possession) rather than simply tying the game. Because, in my view, overtime would not have guaranteed victory. Not with the way our defense was playing.
I think Belichick would’ve gone for two if the Patriots had scored to make it 31-30
Now that would’ve been interesting. We’ve seen Belichick make bold decisions before, which is why I think he would’ve went for the win given how poorly the defense was playing. I would’ve applauded this decision, too.
No problem with the play-calling at the goal-line, aside from the third-down call
I’ve heard many people question the fade to Gronkowski on fourth-down. I didn’t have a problem with it. Remember, Gronk burned Chancellor for a pass interference in the end-zone on the Patriots’ first possession. Leaving it up to your two best players–Brady and Gronk–to come through with the game on the line is never a bad decision, especially given the likelihood of a pass interference penalty that would’ve given the Patriots a brand new set of downs.
The only play-call I had a problem with was on third-down. They should’ve either handed it to Blount and let him jump over the goal-line again or had Brady throw the fade to Gronk then. Having Brady sneak it works really well when there’s not nine bodies standing right over the line of scrimmage. Seattle looked to be on to it, which helps explain why they clogged it up so easily. And for those who might be wondering why I didn’t have a problem with Brady’s first down sneak, that’s because I agree with the strategy to chew up time in order to give Wilson as few seconds as possible to mount a game-winning drive. Again, with the way our defense was playing, Wilson easily could’ve had Seattle in perfect field goal position if the Patriots had scored too early after the two-minute warning.
