Week 10 Edition
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
Straight Up: 75-56-2 (.572)
Last Week: 8-5
Spread: 72-54-7 (.567)
Last Week: 6-6-1
Over/Under: 70-63 (.526)
Last Week: 8-5
Locks: 18-5 (.783)
Last Week: 1-0
Best Bets: 67-53 (.558)
Last Week: 7-6
*Note- Thursday Night prediction for Browns vs Ravens was Baltimore 20-13; no best bets were placed
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Houston Texans (5-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Spread: JAC -1.5 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: HOU (30) < JAC (28)
Public Betting: HOU 69%
Key Stat: Jaguars pass defense ranks 5th in yards per pass attempt
Don’t let their records fool you: The Texans are not much better than the underachieving Jaguars. In fact, Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric actually thinks Jacksonville is better. Let’s not place too much emphasis on statistics, though–we all witnessed what happened with this election. Nonetheless, Houston’s passing offense is terrible: Brock Osweiler has one of the worst QBR’s in the league through nine weeks and the Texans rank dead last in yards per pass attempt. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has a solid secondary that ranks 5th against the pass. However, that figure might be deceptive: The Jaguars are only 27th in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders. If Houston is going to win, they’ll need to pound Lamar Miller; but I still don’t think it will be enough. I’ll hesitantly side with Jacksonville and their improving defense.
Jacksonville 27, Houston 21
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) vs Carolina Panthers (3-5)
Spread: CAR -3 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: KC (12) > CAR (23)
Public Betting: CAR 58%
Key Stat: The Chiefs rank just 30th in opponent yards per rush attempt
Very even matchup in Charlotte this weekend. The Chiefs and Panthers are dead-even in both yards per play (5.4 vs 5.5) and opponent yards per play (5.7 vs 5.7). Kansas City will benefit from the return of both Alex Smith and Spencer Ware, but they’re not as healthy as some projected them to be at the start of the week. Two of their top pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, both are unlikely to play while Jeremy Maclin, their top wideout, has already been ruled out. Edge to Carolina, who’s at home and has a rushing attack capable of exploiting a weak Kansas City run defense.
Carolina 20, Kansas City 16
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Denver Broncos (6-3) vs New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Spread: NO -3 Over/Under: 49
’16 DVOA: DEN (6) > NO (20)
Public Betting: NO 54%
Key Stat: New Orleans’ offensive line ranks second in pass-blocking efficiency
This spread implies that these two teams are even. They’re not. The Broncos have a superior DVOA, thanks in large part to their defense that ranks first in opponent yards per play. For that reason, I think it’s smart to take Denver +3. With that said, the Broncos will be in for a battle in the bayou. New Orleans may be 20th in DVOA, but they’ve played the 2nd hardest schedule through nine weeks. Moreover, the Saints are fourth in yards per play and, as evidenced by the key stat above, they should be able to neutralize Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush. Combine that with the absences of Aqib Talib and Derek Wolfe and I think the Broncos are in for another loss.
New Orleans 24, Denver 23
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Los Angeles Rams (3-5) vs New York Jets (3-6)
Spread: NYJ -1.5 Over/Under: 39.5
’16 DVOA: LA (24) > NYJ (32)
Public Betting: NYJ 69%
Key Stat: Aaron Donald ranks first among defensive players in pressure rate
The Rams may be the superior team according to DVOA, but they’re no sure bet–not with Case Keenum under center. However, though the Jets are at home, they don’t inspire much confidence either. Nick Mangold will be out once again for New York, which is bad news considering the Jets offensive line is going up against the league’s best defensive lineman in Aaron Donald.
Ultimately, this game will come down to turnovers because these two offenses have turned the ball over in bunches this season. Which quarterback do you trust more? Who knows? From a betting standpoint, don’t touch this game with a ten-foot pole.
Los Angeles 24, New York 17
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Atlanta Falcons (6-3) vs Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Spread: ATL -1.5 Over/Under: 50.5
’16 DVOA: ATL (3) < PHI (1)
Public Betting: ATL 78%
Key Stat: Philadelphia is 27th in yards per play in their last three weeks
There are number of reasons to back the Eagles. For starters, they have a great defense that ranks first in DVOA. As good as Atlanta’s offense is, they could have some trouble against this stingy unit on Sunday. Moreover, Philadelphia is actually rated as the superior team according to Football Outsiders. How could they be rated higher than the 6-3 Falcons? Well, the fact that the Eagles are 4-4 is deceptive because all four of their losses have come by less than a touchdown.
The only reason I hesitate to pick Philadelphia is their offense. The Falcons defense isn’t great, though, and partly because this game is in Philadelphia, I’ll take the Eagles to upset the red-hot Falcons.
Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 17
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Minnesota Vikings (5-3) vs Washington Redskins (4-3-1)
Spread: WSH -2.5 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: MIN (9) > WSH (14)
Public Betting: WSH 64%
Key Stat: Minnesota’s turnover margin has dipped to only +0.3 per game in their last three games
People have underrated the Redskins’ offense all season. But the stats don’t lie: Washington is second in yards per play behind Atlanta and their ninth in offense according to DVOA. They’ll face a very good, but struggling Minnesota defense on Sunday. Can the Vikings dictate the turnover battle once again? I guess you never know what you’re going to get from Cousins. However, given how poorly the Vikings have protected Sam Bradford in recent weeks, I don’t trust their ability to win this game on the road.
Washington 20, Minnesota 17
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Green Bay Packers (4-4) vs Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Spread: GB -2.5 Over/Under: 49.5
’16 DVOA: GB (7) > TEN (21)
Public Betting: GB 83%
Key Stat: Packers tied for first in opponent yards per rush attempt
Intriguing battle between Green’s Bay stout run defense and Tennessee’s terrific rushing attack. I think the Packers may be able to slow down DeMarco Murray; but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, their defense has significant holes. That’s good news for the Titans, whose offense surprisingly ranks 4th in cumulative grading according to Pro Football Focus.
The problem for Tennessee is their defense. The Titans rank just 26th in defensive DVOA despite playing the 3rd easiest slate of offenses through nine weeks. They’re also only 27th against the pass. That’s bad news when you’re up against Aaron Rodgers, even though he’s been erratic lately.
Green Bay 28, Tennessee 24
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Chicago Bears (2-6) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Spread: CHI -2.5 Over/Under: 46.5
’16 DVOA: CHI (16) < TB (26)
Public Betting: TB 53%
Key Stat: Tampa Bay has averaged 28 points per game in the last three weeks
Much has been said about the Buccaneers’ struggles at home: They’ve lost six straight at Raymond James Stadium. But in fairness to Tampa, they’ve played some good teams at home in recent weeks like the Falcons and Raiders. I bet Tampa gets off the schneid against a mediocre Bears team.
Tampa Bay 31, Chicago 24
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Miami Dolphins (4-4) vs San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Spread: SD -4.5 Over/Under: 48.5
’16 DVOA: MIA (10) > SD (12)
Public Betting: SD 71%
Key Stat: The Chargers quietly rank 8th in defensive DVOA
The Dolphins match up well with the Chargers. They rank a tad higher in yards per play (5.9 vs 5.7) and are even in opponent yards per play (5.5 vs 5.5). For that reason, I’m taking the points. As for who I like to win, I’ll side with San Diego. When in doubt, take the superior quarterback. Phillip Rivers is having another above-average season. Plus, now he has help from Melvin Gordon, who’s on track to make his first Pro Bowl.
San Diego 24, Miami 23
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San Francisco 49ers (1-7) vs Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Spread: ARZ -13.5 Over/Under: 48.5
’16 DVOA: SF (29) < ARZ (17)
Public Betting: ARZ 63%
Key Stat: San Francisco ranks dead last in opponent yards per rush attempt
Arizona is the lock of the week. The 49ers are horrible in many facets and they just lost another one of their best defensive players, Arik Armstead, to a season-ending injury. David Johnson will run wild as the Cardinals take this one handily.
*Arizona 34, San Francisco 13
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Dallas Cowboys (7-1) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
Spread: PIT -2 Over/Under: 49.5
’16 DVOA: DAL (2) > PIT (18)
Public Betting: DAL 67%
Key Stat: Pittsburgh is 29th at defending number one receivers
Not enough seems to have been made about Pittsburgh’s recent struggles. They’re 2-4 in their last six games, and they’ve struggled in more ways than one. Their rush defense has been gashed by the likes of Miami and New England; their pass defense has been torched by offenses like Philadelphia’s; and as evidenced by their loss against the Ravens last week, their offense has struggled even with Ben Roethlisberger under center. If Big Ben is healthier than he was last week, than the Steelers certainly have a chance. But Dallas is too good offensively, and I think Dez Bryant will finally have his first big game of 2016. Pittsburgh’s troubles will persist for another week.
Dallas 31, Pittsburgh 24
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Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) vs New England Patriots (7-1)
Spread: NE -7.5 Over/Under: 48.5
’16 DVOA: SEA (5) < NE (4)
Public Betting: NE 75%
Key Stat: New England ranks first in yards per play since Tom Brady’s return
New England’s been sensational in recent weeks and there aren’t many teams in the NFL right now that could compete with them in Foxboro. Seattle, however, is one of them. The Patriots’ kryptonite has always been a solid front-four that can get pressure without blitzing. If the Seahawks can do that, their terrific secondary could be able to stifle New England’s offense. Moreover, Russell Wilson seems to have hit his stride over the past few weeks, which could put a strain on the Patriots’ secondary.
The problem for Seattle is that Tom Brady has a plethora of options. New England also should benefit from Michael Bennett’s absence as well as the fact that the Seahawks had a short week to prepare for this cross-country tilt. Seattle may give the Patriots a game, but it won’t be enough to stop the Patriots from moving to 8-1.
New England 30, Seattle 24
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Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) vs New York Giants (5-3)
Spread: CIN -1 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: CIN (19) < NYG (15)
Public Betting: NYG 55%
Key Stat: Cincinnati’s top two cornerbacks each have below average pass-coverage grades, according to Pro Football Focus
Tough game to call. I’ll side with the home underdog, though, and here’s why. New York’s defense has improved vastly in recent weeks, surging to 9th in defensive DVOA entering Week 10. Their offense is also going to face a Cincinnati defense that is nowhere near as good as it’s been in recent years. The Giants will continue to further their playoff case.
New York 26, Cincinnati 23
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Ten…
- Kansas City vs Carolina UNDER 44.5
- Teaser: PHILADELPHIA (+8.5) over Atlanta & Minnesota vs Washington UNDER 49.5
- DENVER (+3) over New Orleans
- TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Chicago
- Chicago vs Tampa Bay OVER 46.5
- MIAMI (+4.5) over San Diego
- Miami vs San Diego UNDER 48.5
- Teaser: ARIZONA (-6.5) over San Francisco & Dallas vs Pittsburgh OVER 42.5
- DALLAS (+2) over Pittsburgh
- NEW ENGLAND (-340) over Seattle
- NEW YORK (+1) over Cincinnati
