Week 8 Edition
*Note- All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
**Note- Home team in Italics
Last Week: 5-4 (.556)
Last Four: 20-15-1 (.569)
Total: 33-29-1 (.532)
#7 Louisville (-19.5) over N.C. State
You’ll notice a theme in this week’s Spread Bet Saturday: Bet on teams being undervalued by the public. Through seven weeks, teams favored with the spread who have received less than 50% of bets from the betting public have gone 44-30 ATS, good for nearly a 60% win percentage. In games that are more heavily bet, which usually means that the game features two Power 5 conference teams, that record bumps up to 68%.
Despite being ranked fourth in ESPN’s Football Power Index and first in yards per play offensively, Louisville is a public underdog this weekend, albeit against a solid N.C. State team that just took Clemson to overtime. No matter. It’s a perfect time to buy low on a Cardinals team coming off an uncharacteristically sluggish performance against Duke. Remember: This offense averages over 50 points per game. As long as this spread stays under three touchdowns, I love Louisville.
Iowa (+4.5) over #10 Wisconsin
If you’ve read this column before, you’d know that I love to take home underdogs. Wisconsin is currently receiving a whooping 84% of public support, but I don’t trust their offense, which ranks a meager 89th in the nation in yards per play. I’m confident that Iowa will keep this conference matchup close and cover the 4.5 point spread.
Colorado (+1.5) over Stanford
Stanford has to be on the short list, along with Notre Dame and LSU, for this year’s most disappointing team. Don’t bet on them turning things around. Not only is Christian McCaffrey questionable to play, but Colorado is better. The Buffaloes rank 23rd in Football Outsider’s Efficiency Index (also known as FEI) and 9th defensively according to ESPN’s FPI. Compare that to Stanford, who ranks 50th in FEI and only 70th in offensive efficiency.
UCLA (-7) over #19 Utah
Why are the nationally-ranked Utes underdogs against an unranked UCLA team? Simply put, Utah is a deceptive 5-1 team who has benefitted from a soft schedule (56th according to Football Outsiders) and succeeded despite having a lackluster offense ranked 79th in the country. UCLA’s offense doesn’t inspire much confidence either, but they’re still led by one of the Pac-12’s best quarterbacks in Josh Rosen. I also like the Bruins to cover because the Utes are currently being backed by the public despite being on the road against a UCLA eager to get back on track after two consecutive losses.
#21 Auburn (-11.5) over #17 Arkansas
Don’t be afraid of the points in this matchup: There are many reasons to take the Tigers. For starters, Auburn is coming off a bye, and rested teams playing at home have covered the spread 56% of the time since 2005. They’re also superior in a variety of metrics. Auburn ranks as the 11th best team in the nation according to Football Outsiders; and if that comes as a surprise to you, it’s likely because the Tigers have been subjected to the nation’s hardest schedule through seven weeks. Moreover, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that 79% of the public likes the Razorbacks on the road. Yet despite this huge amount of support for Arkansas, the spread has actually dropped from -7 to -11.5. That’s insane! And it also means that the sharp bettors who do this for a living like Auburn in a blowout.
Penn State (+19.5) over #2 Ohio State
I’ll keep this one short. I have enough confidence in the Nittany Lions to cover a nearly three touchdown spread at home against an Ohio State team that has struggled offensively in recent weeks.
Texas Tech (+14) over #16 Oklahoma
Texas Tech will be able to keep this game within two touchdowns. Baker Mayfield may be hungry to extract revenge on the team that let him go a couple of years ago, but the Red Raiders rank 6th in the country in yards per play. Moreover, I doubt Oklahoma’s defense (56th in efficiency) will keep Pat Mahones and the Texas Tech offense in check. That’s not to say that the Red Raiders and their horrific defense will slow down Mayfield enough to win the game. They’ll do just enough to cover the spread at home, though.
#23 Ole Miss (+7.5) over #25 LSU
It seems like no one else loves Ole Miss as much as I do! These teams are practically even no matter what metric you look at–LSU is ranked higher in FPI, but Football Outsiders says Ole Miss is better. I’ll take the points with the Rebels.
Bonus Pick
Before I get to the game of the week, I’d like to throw in an additional spread bet. After all, Spread Bet Saturday doesn’t have to be confined to college football, right? I like the Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-150) over the Dodgers in Game 6. To be clear, that doesn’t mean I think the Cubs will win the game. I still like Clayton Kershaw to lead LA to victory and force a Game 7. However, Kershaw has had his struggles in situations like this before (think back to Game 6 of the 2013 NLCS between the Dodgers and Cardinals) and I don’t think the Cubs ever deserve to be a home underdog. Prediction: Los Angeles 3, Chicago 2.
Game of the Week
#1 Alabama (-17.5) over #6 Texas A&M
The surging Aggies are being backed by 60% of the public. This makes sense in some respects. Trevor Knight has had success against Alabama before (albeit with a completely different program) and covering a 17.5 point spread is a lot to ask of Alabama. To think that the Crimson Tide can’t do that at home, though, is a mistake. Alabama’s average margin of victory this year is roughly 30 points. Plus, they’re coming off a 49-10 annihilation of Tennessee, a team that Texas A&M barely beat in overtime. But the thing that really makes me skeptical of Texas A&M’s chances to avoid a blowout is Knight. He may have torched Alabama when he faced them in the Sugar Bowl with Oklahoma, but he’s turnover-prone and ranks only 93rd out of 125 qualified quarterbacks in QB rating. The chances he leads the Aggies’ offense to multiple scoring drives against ‘Bama’s terrific defense is zero. Roll tide…again.
Photo courtesy of Eric Gay/Associated Press
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