Week 7 Edition
We’re essentially halfway through the college football season. Can you believe it?
*Note- All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider (not all games on Bovada had lines posted)
**Note- Home team in Italics
#19 Oklahoma (-13.5) over Kansas State
The betting public actually likes Kansas State to cover the spread in this game–55% of bettors are backing the Wildcats. However, the line has dropped from -9.5 to -13.5. That’s a massive swing in favor of Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma. It seems like the sharp bettors like an Oklahoma blowout, so I’ll side with the smart guys.
North Carolina (+7) over #16 Miami
The Tar Heels are coming off a blowout loss to Virginia Tech. But this North Carolina team has come through on the road before, as evidenced by their upset win over Florida State. I think the 7 points is too much to pass up, albeit against a solid Hurricanes squad.
Northwestern (+6.5) over Michigan State
The slumping Spartans are losers of three straight, and yet they’re still being backed by 65% of bettors and favored by close to 7 points. Northwestern is actually rated as the stronger team according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, so I’ll at least take them to cover the spread.
Indiana (+3.5) over #10 Nebraska
Don’t sleep on this Hoosiers team. They’ve already upset Michigan State and they held J.T. Barrett to only nine completions last week at Ohio State. I’ll take the home underdog.
#9 Tennessee (+13) over #1 Alabama
As great as Alabama is, it’s unrealistic to expect them to play their best on a weekly basis. This is the SEC, after all. I bet Alabama struggles in their second consecutive road game against a pesky Tennessee team. Plus, it’s always nice to back a home underdog getting thirteen points, let alone a top ten team like the Vols.
Arizona (+9.5) over USC
At 2-3, USC isn’t exactly a sure-thing. Let’s not forget that this Arizona team took the fifth-ranked Washington Huskies to overtime a few weeks ago, either. The Wildcats will not just cover the spread, but pull off the outright win.
#22 Arkansas (+7.5) over #12 Ole Miss
Ole Miss is better than Arkansas in many respects. I like Arkansas with the spread in this matchup, though, because they’re home underdogs in a conference game. Moreover, 7.5 is a key number because seven points is one of the most common margins of victory in football. That extra 0.5 points might make the difference between a victory and a push.
Notre Dame (-3) over Stanford
Let’s toss aside Notre Dame’s 10-3 loss to N.C. State last week. Did anyone see those weather conditions? Plus, I’ll take a reeling Fighting Irish team over a really reeling Stanford squad that may not have Christian McCaffrey at full health. DeShone Kizer and the Irish offense will put up points while their defense will do just enough to keep Stanford in check.
Game of the Week
#10 Wisconsin (+10.5) over #2 Ohio State
This was my upset pick of the week on our radio broadcast. No, not just with the spread. Straight up. 10.5 points is obviously too many points to back Ohio State against a strong Wisconsin defense. Remember, this game is in Madison. I think Wisconsin’s offense will feed off it’s home crowd’s energy and their defense will contain J.T. Barrett just enough to pull off the upset.