Week 6 Edition
I’ve had two consecutive winning weeks. You know what they say in Alabama when that happens…Roll Damn Tide!
*Note- All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider (not all games on Bovada had lines posted)
**Note- Home team in Italics
LW: 5-4
Overall: 24-21
Texas (+11.5) over #20 Oklahoma
The Sooners opened as 7.5 points favorites, but this line has gradually moved all the way to -11.5, which suggests that both public and sharp money is on Oklahoma. However, at 11.5 points, I’ll take Texas to cover because Oklahoma’s defense is almost as shaky as the Longhorns D. Plus, this is a rivalry game. It’s almost always close between these two.
#17 North Carolina (-1.5) over #25 Virginia Tech
North Carolina is coming off a big win over Florida State and yet the spread has dropped from -3.5 to -1.5. That spread is too small not to take the Tar Heels and their explosive offense.
#9 Tennessee (+7) over #8 Texas A&M
These teams are evenly matched–both are ranked in the top 12 in FPI. So I’ll take the Vols with the points. I bet they’ll take their momentum from last week’s unbelievable win over Georgia into College Station and pull off the outright win.
#4 Michigan (-29.5) over Rutgers
Michigan’s offense was kept in check against Wisconsin. They’ll erupt against Rutgers, who is coming off a 58-0 loss to Ohio State, a similar opponent to the Wolverines.
#16 Arkansas (+14) over #1 Alabama
I’m going to take a page out of Scott Van Pelt’s playbook and take the home underdog Razorbacks. I could certainly see Alabama’s defense making life miserable for Arkansas’s offense, though.
Oregon (+9.5) over #5 Washington
Does Oregon still want to be regarded as one of the most prestigious programs in the country? If so, then they at least have to keep it close against a Washington team coming off an impressive blowout win over Stanford. Besides pride, I also like the Ducks because nearly 80% of the public is taking the Huskies. I think Washington is very good, but there is clearly a recency bias based on their last performance. Winning by 10+ in a hostile environment against a desperate Oregon team will prove to be too much.
Arizona State (+10) over UCLA
I love home underdogs this weekend! I also love taking teams coming off blowout losses, which Arizona State is after their loss last week to USC.
#15 Stanford (-7.5) over Washington State
The Cardinal opened up as 12.5 point favorites, but clearly everyone is not high on Stanford anymore after their sluggish start to the season. No matter. Stanford is better than Washington State and they’ll put up plenty of points against a weak defense.
Game of the Week
#23 Florida State (+3) over #10 Miami
It seems like every time Miami seems ready to become a powerhouse once again, they always take a step backwards. In this case, however, it’s nothing against the Hurricanes. I love their quarterback, Brad Kaaya, who projects to be one of the first quarterbacks taken in next year’s draft. You should tune into this game just to check him out. The problem for Miami, though, is that Florida State is playing for their ACC lives right now and if they want any chance at a New Year’s Six bowl, they can’t lose this game. The Seminoles are also ranked higher in ESPN’s FPI than Miami (6th vs 14th) despite their two losses. Give me Florida State with the points.
