Like I did with my Week Two predictions, I’m splitting my picks into two sections. This section will cover the Thursday night game and a couple of Sunday’s early games that I’m confident enough to pick right now.
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – You may notice that on the link to Football Outsiders’ DVOA page, I will consult another statistic called DAVE. Simply put, DAVE is DVOA, only with preseason projections factored in.
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Bovada
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
Straight Up: 28-20 (LW: 11-5)
Spread: 31-14-3 (LW: 12-2-2)
Over/Under: 21-27 (LW: 9-7)
Locks: 6-3 (LW: 3-1)
Best Bets: 22-12 (LW: 9-3)
vs 
Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Spread: CIN -7.5 Over/Under: 45
’16 DVOA: MIA (27) < CIN (12)
Public Betting: CIN 69%
Injuries are always a factor in these Thursday Night games, and the Dolphins seem to be the more banged-up bunch. Practically every key Miami player is currently listed on their injury report while Cincinnati seems to be relatively healthy. With that said, I still think the Dolphins can compete with the Bengals. Miami’s offense may be streaky, but Jarvis Landry and company have looked pretty good through three games and I think they have some matchup advantages against a Cincinnati defense that looks weaker than it was last year. Nonetheless, I’d be foolish to take Miami to win this game straight up. The superior Bengals get back to .500.
Cincinnati 27, Miami 23
vs 
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
Spread: IND -3 Over/Under: 49
’16 DVOA: IND (22) > JAC (29)
Public Betting: IND 67%
Some anticipated the Jaguars to finally breakthrough in 2016. Obviously that breakout hasn’t happened yet, but I think Jacksonville will notch their first win in London over the Colts for a couple of reasons. First, though the Jacksonville offense has struggled through three games (they’re only 27th in yards per play), the Colts pass defense is not only weak, but banged-up. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged a little over 300 yards passing per game against Indy and they’ll once again be without their two starting cornerbacks, Vontae Davis and Darius Butler.
Moreover, I’ve noticed an interesting trend so far this year: Underdogs in games between divisional opponents have gone 9-3 (with two pushes) against the spread. This makes sense in theory because there is a lot of familiarity between divisional foes, which leads to very competitive games. So for those reasons, I’ll side with the Jags at Wembley.
Jacksonville 30, Indianapolis 27
vs 
Cleveland Browns (0-3) vs Washington Redskins (1-2)
Spread: WSH -8 Over/Under: 46
’16 DVOA: CLE (32) < WSH (25)
Public Betting: CLE 63%
I’m confident that Washington will win this game. For starters, they’re playing the Browns. The Browns, ladies and gentleman! The Redskins have also been productive offensively: They’re averaging 6.5 yards per play despite some erratic play from Kirk Cousins. However, Cleveland hasn’t been too shappy on offense either (2nd in yards per rush attempt) and the Redskins defense has some holes. The Browns should hang around early, but the Redskins will do enough to win and cover.
Washington 27, Cleveland 17
Stay tuned for the rest of my predictions, which will be released this weekend.
