The Super Bowl is not only the biggest day of the year for football fans. It’s the biggest day of the year for Vegas. A whopping $158.6 million was wagered during last year’s Super Bowl in Nevada alone, topping the previous year’s record of $138.5 million. And even though the books “only” made a $1.2 million profit, it marked the 26th time in 28 years that the House made money on the big game at the public’s expense.
So bettors beware. As I can attest to based on my past Super Bowl betting misfires, and as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell noted this past week regarding the agony of Super Bowl prop betting, it can be frustrating to be on the wrong side of these ridiculous wagers. Who knows what color Gatorade the winning coach will be doused in anyway?
Nonetheless, Super Bowl betting is all in good fun. My advice: bet small, but boldly. The best prop bet I ever made was throwing $10 on Super Bowl LI going to overtime at +1,100. No Super Bowl had ever been to OT, but something had to give sooner or later, right? By game’s end, I looked like a genius (or perhaps just really lucky!). Another tip: shop for the best available odds because there are likely to be line discrepancies between sportsbooks, particularly as kickoff approaches. Though the Super Bowl is still one week away, here’s a list of recommended options from SBD, for shopping around for an early spread that sits really close.
Before I share my five most compelling prop bets for Super Bowl LIII, let’s look at the spread and over/under. After the Patriots/Rams line opened at a pick ’em, New England quickly received a rush of action, pushing the spread to -2.5. Makes sense given how the Patriots are peaking at the right time after two impressive wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.
Putting my Patriots fandom aside for a moment, there are a few reasons why there is value on LA. First, even though New England has a slightly higher weighted DVOA, LA boasts a superior yards per play differential (+0.4 vs +0.2), which is important to note because teams with this edge are a terrific 67-33 since Week 11 of this season. Second, the Patriots are receiving a staggering 86% of spread bets from the public. High levels of public support, however, have actually proven to be a bad sign. Teams receiving less than 25% of bets have historically covered the spread at a nearly 60% rate. And lastly, it’s been great to be an underdog in the Super Bowl, as teams in the Rams’ position are 13-4 against the spread and 10-7 straight up since 2001.
The over/under, meanwhile, opened at 58, surpassing the previous record of 57 set by Super Bowl LI between New England and Atlanta. However, the total has since fallen to 56.5 thanks to 63% of public money betting the under, according to The Action Network. I’d be surprised if this line continued to drop, though, considering how the Rams and Patriots rank near the top of the league in every major offensive category. So if you’re thinking of betting the over, now is the time to pounce.
Without further ado, here are my five most intriguing prop bets.
Under 7.5 punts (-115)
The Rams’ offense had the fewest punts per drive in the NFL this season; and given the way the Patriots’ offense has played in the playoffs, I’d be surprised if their offense sputtered on Sunday. I’m hammering the under on this one.
Sony Michel Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
The rookie’s usage has spiked in the second half of the season, as Michel has carried the ball an average of 19.5 times per game since Week 12. Assuming he gets a similar amount of touches in this game, Michel would need to gain roughly 4 yards per carry in order to top 80 yards, which seems doable considering the Rams’ rush defense ranks 28th in the NFL.
Longest touchdown yardage: Over 46.5 yards (-115)
It seems like most of the Patriots’ touchdowns recently have come via one-yard plunges from either Sony Michel or Rex Burkhead. Moreover, LA hasn’t scored a touchdown of 47+ yards since Week 4 according to Football Outsiders. But as I mentioned earlier, I’ve learned that you have to go against your instincts with these prop bets. Over 46.5 yards it is!
Will Maroon 5 play “Sweet Victory” at halftime as a SpongeBob SquarePants Tribute? — No (+155)
This is the first Super Bowl I can remember where I am not excited about halftime. Maybe Maroon 5 will prove me wrong, but I just hope they don’t perform a rendition of “Sweet Victory” from the famed SpongeBob episode at the “Bubble Bowl.” I’m afraid Adam Levine would butcher it.
Super Bowl MVP: Cordarrelle Patterson (+12,500)
OK, to clarify…the likelihood that Patterson wins Super Bowl MVP is quite low. Odds are this award will go to the quarterback of the winning team. But where’s the fun in that? Once in a while, someone completely out of the blue claims this honor. Oftentimes it is an anonymous defensive player, but a return man — Green Bay’s Desmond Howard — once won this honor for his efforts in Super Bowl XXXI.
And remember Jacoby Jones’ performance for the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII? Jones broke the record for longest play in Super Bowl history by returning a kickoff 109 yards for a score, as well as adding a 56-yard receiving touchdown. Even though Jones didn’t ultimately win MVP, my theory is that Patterson — who had five TD’s including a kickoff return in the regular season — potentially could have a similar impact.
At +12,500, a $1 bet would result in a $125 profit if Patterson comes through. Remember: bet small, but bet boldly.
