Kyler Murray will reportedly enter the NFL Draft. His decision has certainly spiced up an otherwise boring draft with the top players mostly being on the interior. Murray will undoubtedly have a wide array of opinions on him regarding where he should be ranked and how high he will be taken. There are projections that have him landing in the top 10 and others that don’t even see him as a first round pick.
What we do know about Kyler Murray’s NFL chances is well…nothing. We still don’t know for sure that he will make the decision to play in the NFL. Sure, a few guys have done both (Bo and Deion) but those guys didn’t play quarterback. Obviously the role of quarterback in the NFL requires your full attention to be successful, but regardless of that, it isn’t feasible to have your quarterback throwing in two professional leagues year round. I think it is safe to say he ultimately will be choosing one league or the other.
Even just a couple years ago Kyler Murray probably wouldn’t even be considered as a legitimate NFL prospect. Standing at 5’10 (and some say even smaller) it would be hard to imagine him playing in an under center “Pro-Style” offense. That was a couple years ago. With more and more offenses transitioning to up-tempo, spread ‘em out and chuck it offenses similar to the one he played in at Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley, a guy like Murray has become a tantalizing guy. Just look at the success Baker Mayfield had this season. When he finished at Oklahoma, he was initially projected as a late first-early second round player. The Browns took a home run swing with him and they hit it. The way NFL offenses have changed coupled with a weak quarterback class and the success the younger quarterbacks have had has created a perfect storm for a player like Murray, who up until a few weeks ago his agent Scott Boras said him going to the MLB was a “Done Deal”
First let’s talk about Kyler Murray’s 2018 season. 42 touchdowns, 11.6 yards per attempt, and a 94.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. More impressive was his ability to throw from a clean pocket. He had an NCAA best 143.9 passer rating when kept clean but that’s just the start of his brilliance. While I think it is safe to say people know his athleticism is off the charts let’s take a look at the numbers.. He took advantage of defenses all season by using his feet averaging an impressive 7.2 yards per rush on 1001 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns to boot. While he did amass some crazy rushing statistics Murray was equally as impressive from throwing on the move. He had an adjusted completion percentage of 78.7% outside the pocket to go along with a 128.3 passer rating and an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Murray showed he has the ability to make those awkward, on the run throws that have made Patrick Mahomes so fun to watch this year. I mean look at this 49 yard touchdown strike in the National Semifinal.
Kyler Murray with the bomb!! #Oklahoma 20#Alabama 31 #CFBPlayoff #OrangeBowl pic.twitter.com/pWAidHWwf4
— Culler Sports (@CullerSports) December 30, 2018
Kyler Murray is in every sense of the word, a dual-threat. He can make just about every throw from just about any body position.
But a quarterback who is maybe 5’10 can’t be a successful NFL quarterback can he?
The coach with the number one pick in the draft sure seems to think so.
Kliff Kingsbury back on October 28, 2018:
"Kyler is a freak…..I would take him with the first pick of the draft if I could."
👀👀👀
(via @EricKellyTV) pic.twitter.com/N9m99DkTNr— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 10, 2019
So let’s talk about the comparisons. A lot have been thrown around the past few weeks, but the two that have seemed to stick the most are Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson. I have to say I think those are both way off the mark. First, let’s just talk about play style. Wilson and Mayfield are no doubt athletic players, but they live in the pocket. As I mentioned before Murray rushed for over a thousand yards this season. Wilson in his final season at Wisconsin? 338 on 79 attempts. It wasn’t a big part of his game at Wisconsin and it hasn’t been a big part of his game in the NFL. He has always used his feet to avoid the rush, find throwing lanes, and occasionally run. Mayfield is very similar in that sense. He is always looking to pass first. He uses his athleticism to influence defenders and keep defensive ends/linebackers honest.
Something we saw from Baker Mayfield was the ability his last season at Oklahoma to score at will from the pocket against a fantastic Georgia defense. That wasn’t the case for Murray. Against an Alabama team we saw get ripped apart by Clemson, Murray struggled. His performance was deceiving if you just looked at the box score. 300 yards passing, 100 rushing, 3 total touchdowns are all solid numbers to post, but you’re lying to yourself if you don’t believe Alabama was on cruise control for most of the game. They were up 28-0 before you could even get yourself settled in your seat and spent most of the game trying to keep them at an arm’s length rather than completely lock them down. Murray spent the night running for his life and for the most part creating on the go. That simply isn’t a strategy that works at the NFL level.
Don’t take this the wrong way. I am not sitting here telling you mobile quarterbacks cannot succeed at the professional level, but something we see from all the best QBs is that their default is to play from in the pocket and only use their legs to extend and that isn’t Kyler Murray.
A much better comparison for Murray is Doug Flutie. This may come off as an insult, but it isn’t. Flutie was one of if not the best player in the history of the CFL. He led the Bills to the playoffs and was selected to a Pro Bowl. Even with that success the league simply wasn’t accepting of a quarterback his size. The way offensive schemes are changing in the NFL it leads me to believe he would have been built for success in the NFL of today.
My Verdict
The idea of an athlete of Kyler Murray’s level coming to play quarterback in the NFL is certainly going to be a tantalizing prospect for many NFL front offices. Couple that with the fact so many teams are shifting to the Big-12 Air Raid style of offense that has taken over the league and the success of so many young QBs and it sure seems to be shaping up for Murray to be taken high in this years draft. While I believe it has added more intrigue to this class I don’t believe it would be wise to invest a top 10 pick in Murray. The ideal scenario for him is to land with a team near the end of the first round like the Patriots or Saints where he can sit and learn the way to play quarterback in the NFL. That presents another question though; Will he play football if he has to sit a year? There are so many questions that come with drafting Kyler Murray which is why investing a top draft pick in him is such a risk. Something we do know is NFL executives want in on the the new style of NFL offense and out of all the quarterbacks in this draft Kyler Murray presents a unique opportunity to enter into that world. It is going to be very hard for teams to hold off taking a chance on the fascinating prospect that is Kyler Murray.
