The Divisional round is set and the Patriots will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers for the first time in the divisional round since 2006 and the first time in the playoffs since 2007 where Philip Rivers famously tore his ACL mid game and gutted through it. I mentioned to my dad how it feels like an eternity ago, and it was. I really like the comparison to 2006 for these teams.
Some facts about 2006:
LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 1800 yards and an NFL record 28 TDs on his way to win the MVP.
Vince Young capped off a Rookie of the Year season with a trip to the Pro Bowl.
Jon Kitna led the NFL in pass completions.
Oh, and this happened
So much has changed in the NFL over the past 12 years, but as I watched the double-doink heard around the world I thought; how much has it really?
A Patriots team who is lacking playmakers on the offensive end and has looked generally shaky will be facing off against a Chargers team who is loaded across the board. They have playmakers all over the defense and are lead by a star running back and Philip Rivers at QB. Sound familiar?
In 2006, the Chargers were undoubtedly the most talented team in the NFL. They finished the regular season 14-2. As I mentioned above, LT was coming off his record breaking season and had a young Philip Rivers coming off a strong season as well. The offense also included Lorenzo Neal, Keenan McCardell, and prime Antonio Gates. On the defense they were led by Shawne Merriman who compiled 17 sacks in 12 games, Quentin Jammer, and Drayton Florence as well as others.
The Patriots on the other hand were led on offense by (obviously) Tom Brady, 32 year old Corey Dillon, and the dynamic duo of Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown. The ineptitude of the offense led to the Patriots putting together the greatest offense of all time the following year.
The Defense was still stout and was probably better than this years unit but the team this year still boasts a strong pass rush and a secondary that includes an All-Pro.
So let’s take a deeper look at these two teams see who has the edge with each unit.
Quarterback
This is the oldest quarterback matchup in the history of the NFL at a combined 78 years old. These two along with a few others have redefined the quarterback position and how long you can play it effectively. While Rivers has generally had a good year and at one point had some MVP buzz, he has tailed off the last few weeks. Since Week 15 he has thrown 3 TDs compared to 6 interceptions and his QBR sits at 70 which is less than stellar for a QB of his caliber. And while all the talk has been about Brady’s struggles, he has quietly turned in yet another quality season. He threw for 4300 yards, 29 TDs, and a QBR of 97.7 which is right at his career average. His last 4 weeks? 9 TDs and 3 INTS.
With Brady’s experience and his track record of dominating the divisional round (12-2 in his career) I have to give it to Brady here.
EDGE: Patriots
Running Back
Sony Michel has been a nice piece this year as a rookie and has been reliable for most of the season. Rex Burkhead has had his moments, but has been average at best, and what started as a breakout year for James White has slowed down as of late as they incorporated Michel into the offense. The position has been a plus for them this season, but I wouldn’t call any of them real game changers. The Chargers on the other hand have Melvin Gordon, one of the top backs in the league. He is a factor between the tackles as well as in the passing game. Even in an injury-plagued season where he only played in 12 games he amassed 14 total touchdowns and over 1300 total yards. The only question for him is his health. He missed a few games due to an MCL sprain in his right leg and hurt his left knee on Sunday against the Ravens. He will no question be playing Sunday in Foxboro, but his health is something to keep an eye on. All that being said. I still have to go with the Chargers here. The versatility Gordon brings will be a major factor in this game.
EDGE: Chargers
Receivers
This is probably the most lopsided discussion here. The much maligned Patriots skill group has been talked about ad nauseam for the entire season. The receiving core seemed to have gotten a shot in the arm with Josh Gordon who had fit into the offense swimmingly. With him now out of the picture the receiver position is one of the weakest units on the team. Edelman has been solid as usual, but outside of that is has been bleak. Gronk has posted career lows for a generally healthy season, Hogan has gone missing for weeks at a time, and Dorsett has had his moments, but has been a disappointment overall. The Chargers on the other hand are loaded. Keenan Allen is one of the best receivers in all of the NFL and in my opinion the league’s best route runner. Mike Williams has been a great deep threat as well as a go up and get it target for Rivers. Tyrell Williams has been underrated all season long and Travis Benjamin has the ability to make plays downfield as well. In addition to that they still have the ageless wonder that is Antonio Gates and could possibly see Hunter Henry make a return this week as well. All things considered this is a huge advantage for the Chargers.
EDGE: Chargers
Offensive Line
Both teams have solid units up front, but the Patriots have one of the best in the entire NFL. New England’s offensive line has been a real strength all year. Shaq Mason was PFF’s top rated guard for the season with high marks for both run and pass blocking. Him along with Joe Thuney who has been quietly stellar make the best guard combo in the NFL. Trent Brown has been up and down this year, but when he’s on he is one of the toughest tackles to get by. The Chargers on the other hand have had their highs and lows as far as offensive line play goes. Russell Okung has proved to be a good signing as he has stayed healthy this season and has done a great job protecting Rivers’ blindside. The interior has been shaky at times though and the unit has given up 32 sacks this year compared to 21 for the Patriots. New England boasts one of the league’s top offensive line groups and sure will have their hands full Sunday against the Chargers. I give them a good shot.
EDGE: Patriots
Defensive Line
The easy answer here is the Chargers. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are bonafide stars on the edge for them. It was evident from the first snap in their game against the Ravens that they would be game wreckers and they were. Since Bosa has returned from injury this unit has been creating serious issues for opposing offensive lines. In addition to those two studs, they have rotational players like Uchenna Nwosu who iced the game with a strip sack of Lamar Jackson. This group is tough for any team and it will be a good test for them against a great offensive line group for New England. There has been little fanfare for the Patriots defensive line group this season. They ranked 30th in sacks and struggled to get to the quarterback all season. The one bright spot is Trey Flowers, who was great for the Patriots all year long despite not putting up big sack totals. He ranked 3rd in pass-rush win percentage (18.5) and created pressure even when he didn’t come up with a sack. He also posted a career best PFF grade 90.4 finishing as the third highest ranked pass rusher. The run defense has been solid as well only giving up 7 rushing touchdowns on the season. The main difference here is the explosive plays the Chargers defensive line can create. Something the Patriots cannot say.
EDGE: Chargers
Linebackers
Both teams would probably say linebacker is their weakest group on their defense. The Patriots like to rotate a few players at the position and lately have kept Dont’a Hightower in the middle or rushing the pass. Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts have had their moments this season, but have been taken advantage of in the passing game. Hightower, a once Pro-Bowl player is a little long in the tooth now and has been especially slow on the outside. Something other teams have noticed and routinely taken advantage of. The Chargers have struggled at the position as well. This Sunday against the Ravens they employed seven defensive backs for 58 of 59 defensive plays. During the regular season, no NFL team used seven defensive backs on defense at the same time for more than 18 snaps in a game. They clearly felt they could get more production with no linebackers on the field and there is a reason for that. Jatavis Brown and Denzel Perryman are on IR and Kyle Emanuel hasn’t produced. While the Patriots linebackers haven’t been anything to write home about, they have been on the field.
EDGE: Patriots
Defensive Backs
As mentioned above. The Chargers kept seven defensive backs on the field for all but one play against the Ravens on Sunday. It will be interesting to see if they try the same strategy against the Patriots. LA is very deep at the position. Casey Hayward has been fantastic on the outside and All-Pro Desmond King might be the best slot corner in the league. The also All-Pro rookie out of Florida State Derwin James has been a force in the run game and a playmaker on the pass. He finished the season with a grade of 88.3 overall grade that saw him finish first among all defensive rookies and fifth among qualified safeties this season who logged at least 300 defensive snaps. He should probably be the defensive rookie of the year. The Patriots back end isn’t too shabby either. They have their own All-Pro in Stephon Gilmore who was the highest graded corner in the NFL. Jason McCourty finished at 83.3 which puts him at 5th. Undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson has also been a pleasant surprise. With Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung being their usual solid contributors they round out one of the best units in the league. All things considered I think this is a pretty even matchup and will give both quarterbacks fits all day.
PUSH
Other Factors
The Patriots haven’t missed the playoffs since 2008. They have been to the AFC Championship game in a record 7 straight years. All of this has been well documented. What we also know is that the Chargers don’t have a lot of playoff experience especially on defense. Brady has historically dominated the matchup with Rivers going 0-4 in Foxboro and 0-7 against Brady overall. That is a big edge for the Patriots. I’ll add that the forecast at the moment for Sunday is 25 degrees and 3-5 inches of snow. I don’t think that bodes well for LA. Something will have to give though. The Chargers are undefeated outside of LA and the Patriots are the only team undefeated at home this season. Considering the weather and the Patriots home dominance I have to give this one to New England in a low scoring game.
Prediction: Patriots 24 Chargers 17
