Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) 
Saturday, 4:35 (NBC)
What an intriguing matchup. The Colts enter this weekend as football’s hottest team, winners of 10 of their last 11 games after a dominant road win over the Texans in the wild-card round last weekend. You can’t say enough about the way rookie head coach Frank Reich has rallied his troops through adversity, especially when you consider the 1-5 start that Indianapolis endured. The Colts boast one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses, and the offensive line has protected Andrew Luck through his remarkable comeback season.
However, these are the Chiefs we’re talking about. And while they may have finished up the regular season on a somewhat sour note (losing three of their final six games), it would be foolish to sleep on Kansas City, given the way they dominated early on in 2018. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has almost certainly nailed down the MVP award after an incredible season that saw him toss 50 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards. Damien Williams and Spencer Ware have both stepped up to fill the void left by the releasing of Kareem Hunt, complementing Mahomes with a consistent rushing attack. While there are holes on defense, Kansas City has made it clear, all year, that they don’t mind getting in offensive dogfights. They’ll usually end up on the winning side of those.
People are high on the Colts to pull the upset at Arrowhead. While I respect their ability, I do believe you have to give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt here. I like K.C. by a single score.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Colts 24
Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
Saturday, 8:15 (FOX)
The Cowboys had plenty of doubters prior to their wild-card victory over the Seattle Seahawks. While there still may be many of the sort, Dallas showed me that they’re capable of playing consistently on both sides of the ball. We knew about the talent on defense, particularly at linebacker, where Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch figure to be nightmares for offenses for years to come. However, we also got to see quarterback Dak Prescott take matters into his own hands, despite the fact that it might not have been his best overall performance. We saw him orchestrate several impressive drives with his arm, even despite the gruesome injury to wide receiver Allen Hurns. Prescott was also excellent when the pocket collapsed, especially when he managed to take a 3rd-and-long late into the game and turn it into a quarterback scamper that took the Cowboys to the Seattle 1-yard-line, where Prescott himself would sneak it in to ultimately put Seattle out of reach.
On the other side, the Rams boast one of the best passing offenses in football, which is where I could see them having some serious success against a Cowboys secondary that tends to play a “bend, but don’t break” game more often than not. Todd Gurley will certainly be a factor, but I like the Cowboys’ front seven to somewhat neutralize the electric runner. The same could certainly be said about the Rams, mainly because of the sheer presence of Aaron Donald at defensive tackle. It’ll be important to focus on what happens with Gurley and Zeke Elliott in the first quarter. Their ability–or inability–to penetrate the opponent’s front seven will dictate the way Sean McVay and Jason Garrett choose to coach the remainder of this tilt.
This won’t be a popular take. I like Dallas in a nail-biter to advance to their first NFC Championship Game since 1995.
Prediction: Dallas 28, Los Angeles 27
Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) at New England Patriots (11-5)
Sunday, 1:00 (CBS)
The Patriots will get their best divisional round test in years when they welcome the Chargers to Foxboro on Sunday. The Chargers possess one of the NFL’s best secondaries, Melvin Gordon appears to be close to 100% when running the football, and ageless wonder Philip Rivers appears to have the necessary weapons to drive this team down the field when he has to.
Los Angeles is undefeated on the road, seemingly comforted away from the undeniably unfriendly confines of StubHub Field. Wins on the road against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks underlined the Chargers’ ability to win in hostile environments.
The Patriots might not be the best team the Chargers have faced this season, but they do present a different challenge. There isn’t any one facet of New England’s game that really stands out this season, contrary to past seasons. However, I do believe that the Patriots are good enough in all phases to keep pace with the more talented Chargers. I’m also looking at the way-too-early weather forecast for Sunday (3-5 inches of snow expected throughout the day in the Greater Boston area). Not ideal for the Chargers–the frigid 2007 AFC title game comes to mind.
I’m going to give this one to New England by just a few points. The Patriots won’t be able to win this game on the ground–not with that fiery Chargers front seven. However, I think Rob Gronkowski becomes a beneficial factor for the Patriots as the Chargers manage to lock down New England’s receivers.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 31
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Sunday, 4:40 (FOX)
Wouldn’t you know it. The Eagles, thanks to two Cody Parkey DOINKS off the Soldier Field upright/crossbar, live to see another week. Despite Philadelphia’s outrageous good fortune, you can’t discount the big-game ability of Nick Foles. The backup, just as he did last season, led the Eagles on a remarkable game-winning drive on the road, slicing through the Bears defense on the way to another underdog victory.
The Eagles now face a tougher challenge. Philadelphia’s defense ranks among the league’s best, but they’ve got Drew Brees this week, and he might be playing the best football of his 18-year career. Whether it’s Brees to Michael Thomas through the air, or Alvin Kamara on the ground, there’s so many ways this New Orleans offense can cut straight through even the best defenses the league has to offer. We saw it earlier this year against the Rams, when Brees sliced and diced the Rams’ vaunted secondary on the way to 45 points.
There’s no denying Foles’ ability to come through in the playoffs. However, the only way he’ll get an opportunity to do his thing is if Philadelphia’s defense is able to keep this game close for three quarters. I just don’t know if they’ll have enough in the tank to give Foles and Co. a puncher’s chance in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Saints 38, Eagles 24
