*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network
Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016
Straight Up: 9-7 (.563) Straight Up: 122-84-2 (.591) Total: 469-267-4 (.636)
Spread: 9-7 (.563) Spread: 103-95-10 (.519) Total: 405-307-28 (.557)
Over/Under: 8-7-1 (.378) Over/Under: 112-94-2 (.541) Total: 403-329-8 (.550)
Best Bets: 2-3 (.400) Best Bets: 38-34 (.528) Total: 244-184-1 (.569)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs
Marquee Mathups
34 
27
This should be a high scoring affair considering the Steelers and Patriots rank 5th and 6th in offensive DVOA respectively. However, I doubt Pittsburgh’s offense will fire on all cylinders due to James Connor’s absence. His replacement, Jaylen Samuels, had only 28 yards on 11 carries in the Steelers’ loss last week at Oakland. Thus, I expect Bill Belichick to devote more resources to containing Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster — and I think his defense will be up to the challenge. Stephon Gilmore is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded cornerback through fourteen weeks (90.1 grade), while his teammate Jason McCourty ranks 12th (80.4).
Sooner or later, the Steelers will snap their losing streak against the Pats…but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Spread pick: New England (-2.5)
27 
22
It’s not easy to pick against the stingy Cowboys given how their 7th-ranked defense has propelled them to five consecutive victories. Indianapolis, however, has an underrated defense of their own that is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs (6th in NFL). Additionally, there is a big gap between these teams in terms of red zone efficiency: Indy has scored touchdowns on 68% of its red zone trips (7th in NFL), while Dallas has only converted 46% of its opportunities (30th).
Andrew Luck and the Colts have the edge offensively and I think their defense will do enough to contain Ezekiel Elliott.
Spread pick: Indianapolis (-3)
24 
21
Chicago has the league’s top-ranked defense and is a five point favorite against the underachieving Packers…but this is still Aaron Rodgers we’re talking about. The gap between these two quarterbacks is simply too large to pass up Green Bay’s betting value. Rodgers is turning the ball over at the lowest clip of his career and ranks as the 6th highest graded QB according to Pro Football Focus (90.1).
While his counterpart on Sunday looks to be having an efficient season based on ESPN’s Total QBR metric, Mitchell Trubisky has not graded out as favorably according to PFF. In fact, Trubisky surprisingly ranks as the 31st highest-graded QB because PFF takes into account figures such as turnover-worthy throws: the second-year pro has thrown the third most interceptable balls in the league.
I bet Green Bay wins the turnover battle at Soldier Field today and pulls a quasi-upset over the NFC North leading Bears.
*BEST BET: Green Bay (+5)
Other Best Bets for Week 15…
Buccaneers (+8.5) over Ravens
This is another situation where people are overlooking the quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston can be turnover-happy, but he’s been more reliable in recent weeks (8 TD compared to only 2 INT). Lamar Jackson, on the other hand, has not proven his worth as a passer: he has completed under 60% of his passes at only a 6.8 yards per attempt clip. The Ravens should still win straight up thanks to their terrific defense and Jackson’s running ability, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cushion with the 8.5 point spread.
Cardinals (+10) over Falcons
The Falcons are the better team, but they don’t deserve to be a huge favorite, even against the lowly Cardinals. I don’t expect a huge output from the Falcons’ offense against Arizona’s solid defense considering Atlanta has only averaged 17.6 points per game over its past five games. And while the Cardinals’ offense is weak, they should take advantage of the Falcons’ 32nd ranked defense.
Teaser: Vikings (-1) over Dolphins & WSH v JAC UNDER 43
The Dolphins are due for a letdown after their miraculous win against the Patriots. Miami ranks a pedestrian 23rd in weighted DVOA and has a negative yards per play differential (-0.6). I also expect Kirk Cousins to play better considering he is facing a 30th ranked Dolphins defense.
As for the matchup between Washington and Jacksonville…it’s Josh Johnson vs Cody Kessler. Hammer the under!
Seattle vs San Francisco UNDER 44.5
These teams managed to combine for 59 points in their last meeting, but Seattle is a run-first team that tends to play at a slower pace, while San Francisco has a mediocre offense that is averaging only 15 points per game over the last three weeks. More importantly, games between divisional opponents have managed to stay under the O/U total at a 61.3% rate since 2003. I’m taking Seattle to win in a listless, low-scoring affair in Santa Clara.
Full List of Week 15 Picks *Home team in CAPS
Tennessee 20, NY GIANTS 17 Spread pick: Tennessee (-1) O/U: Under 43
BALTIMORE 23, Tampa Bay 20 Spread pick: Tampa Bay (+8.5) O/U: Under 4.5
Green Bay 24, CHICAGO 21 Spread pick: Green Bay (+5) O/U: Under 47
BUFFALO 20, Detroit 16 Spread pick: Buffalo (-2.5) O/U: Under 40
CINCINNATI 28, Oakland 21 Spread pick: Cincinnati (-3) O/U: Over 46
ATLANTA 27, Arizona 20 Spread pick: Arizona (+10) O/U: Over 44
MINNESOTA 28, Miami 17 Spread pick: Minnesota (-7) O/U: Over 44.5
INDIANAPOLIS 27, Dallas 22 Spread pick: Indianapolis (-3) O/U: Over 47.5
JACKSONVILLE 13, Washington 10 Spread pick: Washington (+7) O/U: Under 36
New England 34, PITTSBURGH 27 Spread pick: New England (-2.5) O/U: Over 54
Seattle 24, SAN FRANCISCO 13 Spread pick: Seattle (-3.5) O/U: Under 44.5
LA RAMS 34, Philadelphia 23 Spread pick: Philadelphia (-13) O/U: Over 50
