I fell down the rabbit hole again.
That happens often this time of year when I find myself forecasting the endless postseason possibilities through ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, a tool that allows you to predict every remaining regular season game.
It’s a particularly intriguing exercise after weeks like the one we just had, which included bizarre endings (the Miami Miracle, anyone?), shocking upsets (Oakland over Pittsburgh), and major seeding movement (New Orleans reclaiming the NFC’s top seed over Los Angeles).
Knowing what we know now — nothing more, nothing less — here’s how I see the regular season ultimately unfolding.
A few takeaways:
1) No Steelers??!!
Yes, no Steelers. Let me explain.
For starters, Mike Tomlin’s squad is reeling after losing its third consecutive game on Sunday to the lowly Raiders (and Pittsburgh should be on a four-game losing streak, if only Jacksonville knew how to hold a lead).
More importantly, though, the Steelers’ remaining schedule is brutal and Baltimore is right on their heels. This Sunday, Pittsburgh hosts New England, a team Ben Roethlisberger and company have not beaten in their last five meetings, and then must travel to New Orleans, who is battling for the NFC’s top seed. The Ravens, meanwhile, finish with two home games against under .500 opponents (Tampa Bay and Cleveland) sandwiched between a difficult road game against the Chargers.
Say Baltimore loses to LA. As long as the Ravens take care of business at home — and the Steelers fail to beat the Patriots and Saints — Baltimore will hoist the AFC North crown. And that’s what I ultimately think will happen. After all, the Ravens have the NFL’s 4th-ranked defense according to weighted DVOA and are 3-1 with Lamar Jackson under center after nearly defeating the top-seeded Chiefs at Arrowhead. And Pittsburgh, frankly, hasn’t clearly proven over the past three weeks that they are a playoff caliber team.
2) Saints hang on to top seed
Boy was New Orleans’ victory over the Rams in early November enormous. That will prove to be the tiebreaker between these two teams, who I both project to run the table and finish 14-2.
Assuming things play out like I expect them to, the Saints will be incredibly difficult to beat in the Superdome, where Drew Brees is 5-0 in his playoff career. However, New Orleans’ final three games aren’t layups. Their toughest matchup may be this Monday at Carolina considering the Panthers desperately need a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Los Angeles, on the other hand, wraps up with an easy slate (vs Eagles, @Cardinals, vs 49ers).
Nonetheless, Sean McVay’s squad does not control its own destiny for the one seed — and that could prove to be the difference.
3) Colts/Titans will decide final slot in AFC
The AFC’s Wild Card race is intense. Four teams — Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, and Tennessee — are currently tied for 6th. I think the Dolphins are a paper tiger, though: they’re just 23rd in weighted DVOA. And since I expect Baltimore to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s late-season collapse, that will likely leave the Colts and Titans in position to claim the 6th seed, provided they each win their next two games. Indianapolis has a tough matchup versus Dallas this weekend and Tennessee is no guarantee to beat the Giants on the road this Sunday, but I still like both to be 9-6 when they meet in Nashville for a win-and-your-in finale.
I’m penciling in this one as the SNF matchup in Week 17.
