*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network
***Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016
Straight Up: 6-7 (.643) Straight Up: 93-66-2 (.583) Total: 440-251-4 (.636)
Spread: 4-6-3 (.423) Spread: 79-72-10 (.522) Total: 382-285-28 (.570)
Over/Under: 10-3 (.769) Over/Under: 88-71-2 (.553) Total: 380-307-8 (.552)
Best Bets: 3-0 (1.000) Best Bets: 31-26 (.544) Total: 237-176-1 (.573)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs
CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread
Thanksgiving Picks
DETROIT 20 Chicago 17
DALLAS 27 Washington 16
New Orleans 34 ATLANTA 30
*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my predictions
Marquee Matchup
vs 
8:20 ET NBC Spread: MIN -3 O/U: 47.5 DVOA: GB (8) > MIN (13) Public Betting: GB 70%
Losers of seven straight road games, Green Bay faces a must-win situation in Minneapolis. Will Aaron Rodgers finally break out of his slump away from Lambeau? Well, Mike Zimmer’s defense certainly won’t make things easy. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank 6th against the pass and 4th against the run. It also doesn’t help that Green Bay is banged up on the outside, as receiver Randall Cobb (hamstring) and tight end Jimmy Graham (thumb) are questionable to play.
Normally I would give Rodgers a massive edge over Kirk Cousins; however, Cousins threw for 425 yards and 4 touchdowns when these teams met in Week Two. With Dalvin Cook back in the fold, I also think that Minnesota can take advantage of Green Bay’s 24th ranked rush defense.
The Packers have value with the spread based on their superior yards per play differential (+0.7 vs +0.4 for Minnesota). My gut is telling me, though, that the Vikings’ offense will bounce back nicely after last week’s disappointing performance against Chicago and pull out a narrow victory.
Minnesota 29 GREEN BAY 27
Upset Pick
New York Giants (+5) notch third consecutive win by defeating reeling Eagles
Get this: according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Eagles rank 22nd in offense…22nd in defense…and 22nd in special teams. The defending champs are a mediocre team. It’s as simple as that. The Giants, meanwhile, are a higher DVOA underdog and have a superior yards per play differential (-0.3 vs -0.6 for PHI). Not only do I love the Giants to cover as five point underdogs, but I’ll take them to come away with an outright victory in Philadelphia.
NEW YORK 27 Philadelphia 24
Picks for the rest of Sunday’s matchups…
24 
17 Spread: NE -10.5 O/U: 46.5
The Jets often give New England trouble at MetLife Stadium. This contest should be no different considering the Patriots have a few key players banged up (Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Sony Michel, and Shaq Mason have been limited in practice this week) as well as the fact that New York’s defense still ranks 10th in opponent yards per play despite some recent struggles. Ultimately, though, New York’s poor offense (32nd in yards per play since Week 9) won’t do enough to pull the upset.
27 
24 Spread: BAL -11 O/U: 48
Don’t be surprised if Oakland steals a victory in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is still unproven as a passer, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raiders win the turnover battle by intercepting the rookie at least a couple of times. With that said, I’m still going to take the Ravens given the wide disparity in DVOA (7th vs 31st) between these two teams.
28 
23 Spread: CAR -3 O/U: 47
Seattle usually struggles when it makes trips to the East Coast. While I expect Russell Wilson to have success against Carolina’s overrated defense, I like Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers to have a great day on the ground against a Seahawks defense that is only 28th against the run.
30 
23 Spread: CIN -1.5 O/U: 48
Cincinnati’s defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in opponent yards per play. The Bengals are also dead-last in the league at defending running backs in the receiving game, so look for Duke Jackson to be an X-factor in this matchup as the Browns win their second consecutive game.
35 
20 Spread: TB -2.5 O/U: 54
If only Tampa Bay could protect the football they would be all set! Despite ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play, the Buccaneers sit in the NFC South cellar due to a league-high 2.9 giveaways per game. Fortunately for the ‘Bucs, though, San Francisco is last in the league in takeaways. I like Tampa to win this game easily.
20 
10 Spread: JAC -3 O/U: 37
Certainly can’t trust either offense…but after containing the high-powered Pittsburgh offense for three-and-a-half quarters last week, I can’t imagine Josh Allen having much success against Jacksonville’s stingy defense.
27 
19 Spread: LAC -13.5 O/U: 44
The Cardinals offense has been better of late…but they’ve still only scored over 20 points twice this season.
31 
24 Spread: IND -8 O/U: 51.5
Indianapolis’ offense has been sensational over the past two months, as they’re averaging 34 points per game since Week 4. However, Miami does have some value with the spread for two reasons. First, the Dolphins are coming off a bye, so they should be rested. And second, it’s usually profitable to bet against teams coming off a big win. Indy beat Tennessee last week 38-10, but teams coming off a 21+ point home victory have covered the spread at only a 44% rate since 2003.
26 
20 Spread: PIT -3 O/U: 47
Pittsburgh is definitely on upset alert against an underrated Denver side. The Broncos have played five games against teams with winning percentages greater than .700 (Chiefs 2x, Rams, Texans, Chargers) and each of those games has been decided by less than a touchdown. Nonetheless, Denver’s defense is no longer dominant, as they rank only 20th in opponent yards per play. The Steelers should do enough offensively to prevail.
Best Bets
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GIANTS (+5) over Eagles
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RAIDERS (+11) over Ravens
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TEASER: Seahawks vs Panthers OVER 40.5 & Browns vs Bengals OVER 41.5
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BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over 49ers
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