Week Nine Edition 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 10-4 (.714)           Straight Up: 72-47-2 (.603)     Total: 419-232-4 (.643) 

Spread: 7-7 (.500)                     Spread: 63-51-7 (.550)            Total: 366-264-25 (.578)      

Over/Under: 8-5-1 (.607)        Over/Under: 64-55-2 (.537)      Total: 356-291-8 (.549)

Best Bets: 4-2 (.667)               Best Bets: 25-21 (.543)              Total: 231-171-1 (.569) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

Prediction for TNF: OAKLAND 28  San Francisco 16

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my predictions

Marquee Matchups

Green Bay Packers (3-3-1) vs New England Patriots (6-2)

8:20 ET NBC          Spread: NE -6           O/U: 56           DVOA: GB (12) < NE (7)              Public Betting: NE 64%

Rodgers vs Brady. What’s better than this? Hopefully we’ll all be treated to the same kind of fireworks we saw a few weeks ago when the Chiefs and Patriots combined to put up 83 points in Foxboro. However, New England possesses a few matchup advantages that could make it difficult for Rodgers to pull an upset.

For starters, the Packers’ secondary will be weaker after trading safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to the Redskins on Tuesday. Even with Clinton-Dix, Pro Football Focus’ 6th-highest graded safety in 2018, Green Bay still only ranked 17th against the pass. Now safeties Jermaine Whitehead and Kentrell Brice will look to replace the former Pro Bowler, but it remains to be see how effective Whitehead and Brice will be considering they rank as the 69th and 77th highest-graded safeties respectively according to PFF.

Moreover, Green Bay’s offense has been not played at an elite level this season. Not only do they rank just 16th in points per drive, but they have topped 30 points on only once occasion (and it was against the lowly 49ers). Compare that to the Patriots, who rank 6th in points per drive and have averaged 36 points per game over their past five games.

I’ll take the Packers with the spread simply out of respect for Rodgers, but New England is the better team. In this case, it seems that my picks are in line with what most UK bookies’ are offering, or at least the big ones listed at the likes of Playright.

New England 31  GREEN BAY 27 

Los Angeles Rams (8-0) vs New Orleans Saints (6-1)

4:25 ET FOX            Spread: LAR -2.5           O/U: 57.5             DVOA: LAR (2) > NO (5)            Public Betting: NO 55%

Will the ’72 Dolphins finally crack open those champagne bottles? Tough to say because even though this game is in the Superdome, Los Angeles is the better team. Whereas the Saints have a rather pedestrian yards per play differential (6.1 yards per play / 6.1 yards per play allowed), the Rams have the 2nd best differential in the NFL (+0.9). Additionally, Los Angeles has a big edge offensively because New Orleans doesn’t defend the pass well (29th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders). Jared Goff, meanwhile, has the league’s 2nd best passer rating from a clean pocket this season. Will the Saints be able to generate enough pressure? Probably not. They only rank 23rd in adjusted sack rate.

With that said…games aren’t played on paper and my gut says Drew Brees and the Saints will find a way to pull the upset. After all, their offense can certainly keep pace with LA’s.

NEW ORLEANS 38  Los Angeles 34 

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

1:00 ET CBS           Spread: BAL -2            O/U: 47             DVOA: PIT (11) < BAL (10)              Public Betting: PIT 76%

Baltimore dominated the Steelers when these teams last met at Heinz Field a month ago. But the Ravens are not coming into this rematch with any momentum having lost three of their past four games. Their offense has particularly struggled of late, as they’re averaging a measly 5.2 yards per play over their past three games. Pittsburgh, in contrast, is 4th in yards per play (6.6) over this same period. Combined with their defense’s ability to pressure the quarterback, look for the Steelers to do enough to move to 5-2-1.

PITTSBURGH 24  Baltimore 17 

Los Angeles Chargers (5-2) vs Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

4:05 ET CBS             Spread: Pick ’em            O/U: 47.5             DVOA: LAC (3) > SEA (8)            Public Betting: LAC 50%

The Seahawks quietly have the league’s 2nd-ranked defense according to Football Outsiders. But will it be enough to stop a Chargers’ offense that ranks 1st in yards per play? I’m leaning toward yes, especially since Melvin Gordon (hamstring) is questionable to play. Seattle’s offense also has turned a corner, as Russell Wilson and company are averaging a terrific 6.5 yards per play over their past three games. Should be a close game, but I’ll take the Seahawks at home.

SEATTLE 27  Los Angeles 20 

Predictions for the rest of Sunday’s games…

• Carolina 27  TAMPA BAY 24                 Spread: CAR -6        O/U: 55        DVOA: TB (29) < CAR (4) 

• KANSAS CITY 37  Cleveland 20           Spread: KC -9          O/U: 52        DVOA: KC (1) > CLE (27)

• WASHINGTON 23  Atlanta 20              Spread: WSH -2       O/U: 48        DVOA: ATL (22) < WSH (17)

• DETROIT 24  Minnesota 21                  Spread: MIN -5         O/U: 48.5     DVOA: DET (26) < MIN (16)

• Chicago 23  BUFFALO 16                     Spread: CHI -10.5     O/U: 37.5     DVOA: CHI (6) > BUF (32)

• NEW YORK 20  Miami 17                      Spread: MIA -3          O/U: 42       DVOA: NYJ (23) < MIA (14)

• DENVER 24  Houston 23                      Spread: DEN -1         O/U: 45.5     DVOA: HOU (13) < DEN (9)

Best Bets

• Teaser: NEW ORLEANS (+9) over Los Angeles & PITTSBURGH (+8.5) over Baltimore

• DETROIT (+5) over Minnesota

• DENVER (+1) over Houston 

Posted by Mando

Co-Founder of Check Down Sports. Die-hard Boston sports fan (Patriots, Celtics, Bruins, Red Sox -- in that order). Expert on all things related to the Super Bowl. Proudest life achievement: four-time fantasy baseball champion.