We’re halfway through the NFL season and a few stars have separated themselves in the major award races. Three players — Kansas City’s Pat Mahomes, New Orleans’ Drew Brees, and Los Angeles’ Todd Gurley — are locked in a three-way battle for MVP. You have to imagine one of them will win Offensive Player of the Year as well, unless a dark horse like Minnesota’s Adam Thielen sneaks into the race. And as for Defensive Player of the Year…well, there’s the Rams’ Aaron Donald and everybody else.
Offensive Rookie of the Year, meanwhile, appears to be an open-and-shut case. After being selected number two overall in the 2018 draft, Giants running back Saquon Barkley entered the year as the consensus favorite and has done nothing to disprove the pundits who said he would be the most impactful rookie. The former Penn State star is 7th in the NFL in rushing yards (519) and is tied for the league-lead in 20+ carries with seven. He also has compiled a damn good list of highlight reel plays.
Barkley, frankly, has been the lone bright spot for the G-Men this season, as he’s looking more and more likely to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yet even though Barkley is the consensus betting favorite, there is a legitimate OROY case to be made for a couple other underrated rookies.
Denver running back Phillip Lindsay leads this discussion. The undrafted rookie has quietly put together an excellent season, ranking 6th in rushing yards (531) and 1st in yards per carry among players with at least 90 rushing attempts (5.7). According to Pro Football Focus, Lindsay even has a higher overall grade (79.4) this season than Barkley (77.3).
You have to give Lindsay credit. After all, Barkley was effectively chosen 255 slots ahead of him in last year’s draft. With that said, Barkley has had a more impressive season than Lindsay when you adjust for the two players’ circumstances. While Lindsay has been running behind the league’s 4th best run-blocking offensive line, Barkley has had to make due with the league’s worst o-line, according to Football Outsiders. Imagine what Barkley’s numbers would look like if he had a front as good as Denver’s!
Barkley, in short, deserves to be the clubhouse favorite, even though the gap between him and Lindsay should not be quite as large as the betting markets indicate. His main competition, therefore, will likely come from the other high profile rookie selected one slot above him: Baker Mayfield. While the 2017 Heisman winner has struggled in recent weeks, his PFF grade of 78.2 still ranks 3rd among offensive rookies behind Lindsay and San Francisco OT Mike McGlinchey. Mayfield also will face a relatively easy slate of defenses in the coming weeks, as only one of his next five opponents ranks in the top ten of defensive DVOA. If Mayfield and the Browns can string together a few victories, that could put him in the OROY driver seat, particularly if Barkley’s Giants continue to struggle despite his exceptional talent.
