Week Eight Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records Last Week + This Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 10-4 (.800)           Straight Up: 62-43-2 (.588)     Total: 409-228-4 (.641) 

Spread: 8-6 (.571)                     Spread: 56-44-7 (.556)            Total: 359-257-25 (.579)      

Over/Under: 7-7 (.500)             Over/Under: 56-50-1 (.528)      Total: 348-286-7 (.548)

Best Bets: 6-2 (.750)               Best Bets: 21-19 (.525)              Total: 227-169-1 (.573) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: MIAMI 23  Houston 20 

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

Green Bay Packers (3-2-1) vs Los Angeles Rams (7-0)

Spread: LA -9            O/U: 57           DVOA: GB (13) < LA (1)              Public Betting: GB 70%

Before you bet on Aaron Rodgers as a nine-point dog, consider these four factors:

1. Todd Gurley (686 rushing yards, 1st in NFL) and the Rams have the league’s top-ranked rushing attack, according to Football Outsiders (FO)
2. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defensive line ranks 29th in FO’s adjusted line yards metric (translation: they can’t stop the run)
3. Jared Goff has the Rams’ second-highest passer rating against man coverage in 2018 (117.5) — that’s bad news for the Packers because they have lined up in man coverage on 46.5% of plays this season (2nd in NFL) according to Pro Football Focus
4. And lastly, despite playing the league’s 4th-easiest slate of opposing offenses through seven weeks, Green Bay only ranks 24th in defensive DVOA

Rodgers won’t be nearly enough. The undefeated Rams are simply too good.

LOS ANGELES 41  Green Bay 27

 

New Orleans Saints (5-1) vs Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1) 

Spread: NO -1.5            O/U: 54            DVOA: NO (5) > MIN (16)             Public Betting: NO 58%

Winners of five straight, the Saints enter this Sunday Night matchup with two distinct advantages. First, the Vikings are banged up. They could be without as many as four  defensive starters, including All-Pro cornerback Xavier Rhodes (ankle), Pro Bowl linebacker Anthony Barr (hamstring), defensive tackle Linval Joseph (knee), and safety Andrew Sendejo (already ruled out with a groin injury).

Second, New Orleans is sensational at stopping the run (3.1 yards per rush allowed, 1st in NFL), which could put added pressure on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota passing game to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints’ prolific attack (34.0 points per game). I’ll side with Brees and company given these circumstances.

NEW ORLEANS 27  Minnesota 24 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)

Spread: PHI -3            O/U: 43.5             DVOA: PHI (19) > JAC (20)              Public Betting: PHI 68%

Jacksonville is heading in the wrong direction. Sure, I suppose you could same the same about Philadelphia; however, the Jaguars have been blown out in three consecutive games (average margin of defeat of 20.6 points) and they are dealing with a number of injuries, including cornerback A.J. Bouye (calf), linebacker Dante Fowler (groin), and running back Leonard Fournette, who will miss another week with a hamstring injury.

The Eagles’ four losses, meanwhile, have all been by less than a touchdown, so I certainly don’t think the sky is falling for the defending champs. Look for Doug Pederson’s squad to get back on track with a win over the struggling Jaguars.

PHILADELPHIA 24  Jacksonville 18 

 

Also on the Sunday slate…

Denver Broncos (3-4) vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)

Spread: KC -9.5           O/U: 53.5           DVOA: DEN (7) < KC (2)               Public Betting: KC 63%

The Broncos aren’t quite  as bad as people think. Surprisingly, they rank 7th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric thanks largely to two narrow losses to the Rams and their opponent this week. With that said, the Chiefs have been phenomenal at home this season, averaging 38 points per game with a +62 point differential. Denver may be able to keep it close, but I’ll be shocked if Kansas City slips up.

KANSAS CITY 31  Denver 20 

 

Cleveland Browns (2-4-1) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1)

Spread: PIT -7.5            O/U: 48.5            DVOA: CLE (27) < PIT (8)            Public Betting: PIT 66%

Talk about a mismatch: Pittsburgh’s defense, which ranks 5th in the NFL in sack percentage, is set to face a Cleveland offensive line that ranks dead last in pass protection. I don’t see Baker Mayfield keeping up with Ben Roethlisberger.

PITTSBURGH 33  Cleveland 17 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) vs Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)

Spread: CIN -3.5            O/U: 54.5             DVOA: TB (28) < CIN (22)              Public Betting: CIN 70%

Tampa Bay is arguably the stronger team based on their superior yard per play differential (+0.1 vs -0.6 for Cincinnati). And while the Buccaneers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL, the Bengals’ D is not much better, as they have allowed the 5th most points per game this season (29.0).

However, Cincinnati’s stats are deceptive because Marvin Lewis’ squad has played the league’s 2nd-toughest schedule through seven weeks, so I’ll roll with the Bengals at home.

Cincinnati 30  TAMPA BAY 27 

 

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) vs Carolina Panthers (4-2)

Spread: BAL -3              O/U: 44              DVOA: BAL (3) > CAR (11)                Public Betting: CAR 54%

The Ravens have arguably the NFL’s best defense, as they’re allowing a league-low 4.5 yards per play and 14.4 points per game. Carolina, meanwhile, is only 25th in yards per pass attempt and Cam Newton is apparently dealing with a bad shoulder.

Still a tough game to call given the Panthers’ strong defense, but I’ll take Baltimore.

BALTIMORE 16  Carolina 13 

 

Washington Redskins (4-2) vs New York Giants (1-6)

Spread: WSH -1.5            O/U: 44            DVOA: WSH (18) > NYG (25)                Public Betting: WSH 76%

Here’s how the NFL usually works: everyone buys stock in a team like the Redskins after two consecutive victories and sells a team like the Giants, who can’t seem to do anything right and appear to be in tank mode. Then the “unthinkable” happens (i.e. an upset).

With Odell Beckham (87.1 PFF grade) and Sterling Shepherd (70.9) possessing massive advantages over Washington’s corners, Josh Norman (66.9) and Greg Stroman (42.9), I’ll side against the public and take New York.

NEW YORK 23  Washington 20 

 

New York Jets (3-4) vs Chicago Bears (3-3)

Spread: CHI -9              O/U: 43              DVOA: NYJ (21) < CHI (9)               Public Betting: CHI 75%

I don’t think the Bears deserve to be nine-point favorites over a decent Jets team, but with New York expected to be without multiple starters, including receivers Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa as well as cornerback Trumaine Johnson, Chicago’s top-ranked defense should take care of Sam Darnold and the Jets relatively easily.

Chicago 20  NEW YORK 13 

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-3) vs Detroit Lions (3-3)

Spread: DET -3             O/U: 48.5              DVOA: SEA (10) > DET (26)              Public Betting: SEA 62%

Check out the latest episode of Two Point Stance to hear why I like the Seahawks as one of my best bets this week.

SEATTLE 30  Detroit 27 

 

Indianapolis Colts (2-5) vs Oakland Raiders (1-5)

Spread: IND -3.5              O/U: 51              DVOA: IND (15) > OAK (29)                 Public Betting: IND 72%

The public is likely overreacting to the Colts’ blowout win over a bad Buffalo team last week. Here’s why: road teams coming off a 21+ win (like the Colts) facing a team coming off a 21+ point loss (i.e. the Raiders) are only 14-28-1 (.337) against the spread since 2003.

Don’t be surprised if the Raiders come out with a chip on their shoulder in order to prove they are not mailing the rest of the season.

OAKLAND 27  Indianapolis 20

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-6) vs Arizona Cardinals (1-6)

Spread: SF -2                  O/U: 41                 DVOA: SF (30) > ARZ (31)                 Public Betting: SF 71%

Both of these teams are horrible, so it’s tough to get comfortable picking either side in this matchup. However, Arizona beat San Francisco convincingly three weeks ago, yet the spread indicates that the 49ers are five points better on a neutral field. That doesn’t make any sense, especially when you consider that underdogs in matchups featuring two teams with winning percentages under 20% are a terrific 67-45-4 ATS since 2003, per the Action Network.

ARIZONA 20  San Francisco 17 

 

Monday Night Football

New England Patriots (5-2) vs Buffalo Bills (2-5)

Spread: NE -14            O/U: 44              DVOA: NE (6) > BUF (32)                    Public Betting: NE 71%

The Bills’ offense (3.9 yards per play) has been historically bad: in fact, no team since the 2004 Bears has averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per play. To Buffalo’s credit, Sean McDermott’s squad plays good defense (5th in yards per play allowed at 5.1). But how are they going to keep pace with a New England offense that has scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games?

Short answer: they won’t.

NEW ENGLAND 34  Buffalo 10 

 

Best Bets

• TEASER: LOS ANGELES (-2.5) over Green Bay & Los Angeles vs Green BAY OVER 50.5 

• PITTSBURGH (-375) over Cleveland 

• TEASER: KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver & Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati OVER 48 

• TEASER: NEW YORK (+8) over Washington & New York vs Chicago UNDER 49.5 

• SEATTLE (+3) over Detroit 

• OAKLAND (+3.5) over Indianapolis