Week Two Edition 

 

*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Mando’s Records From Last Week + Last Season + Totals Since 2016

Straight Up: 9-6-1 (.594)            Straight Up: 182-85 (.682)            Total: 355-192-3 (.648) 

Spread: 9-7 (.563)                       Spread: 151-104-12 (.588)            Total: 311-219-20 (.584)      

Over/Under: 8-8 (.500)               Over/Under: 149-112-6 (.569)       Total: 299-245-6 (.549)

Best Bets: 3-2 (.600)                  Best Bets: 74-46 (.617)                  Total: 206-148-1 (.581) 

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs 

 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

 

Prediction for TNF: BALTIMORE 23  Cincinnati 17 

*Follow @checkdownsports on Instagram to stay updated with all of my Thursday Night Football predictions

 

Marquee Matchups

New England Patriots (1-0) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) 

4:25 PM ET CBS      Spread: NE -1        O/U: 44.5         DVOA: NE (3) > JAC (22)          Public Betting: NE 71%

The Jaguars haven’t had a home regular season game as big as this one in years, which means things won’t come easy for the Patriots as they look to beat Jalen Ramsey and company in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship.

The good news for New England, though, is that its defense looked much improved last week. Defensive end Trey Flowers (1.5 sacks) and rookie linebacker Ja’Whuan Bentley (7 tackles) each graded out as the fourth most productive players in the NFL at their respective positions according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). These two should be able to have further success on Sunday considering the Jaguars will likely be without running back Leonard Fournette.

Jacksonville has concerns elsewhere on offense, too. Its offense line looked terrible in Week One, as only one starter, right tackle Jeremy Parnell, registered an above-average grade according to PFF. The Jags’ passing game also had trouble without top receiver Marquise Lee (torn ACL), as Blake Bortles only managed 176 yards on 33 attempts.

The Jaguars’ defense is certainly good enough to keep them in the game, particularly given the Patriots’ lack of depth in the backfield (Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are both questionable). But with a healthy Rob Gronkowski and an emerging receiver in Phillip Dorsett, Tom Brady has enough weapons to lead New England to victory.

NEW ENGLAND 24, Jacksonville 20 

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) vs Green Bay Packers (1-0) 

1:00 PM ET FOX        Spread: Pick ’em         O/U: 46       DVOA: MIN (5) > GB (8)        Public Betting: N/A

Even if Aaron Rodgers is healthy enough to play, I still like the Vikings to walk out of Lambeau with a win. Minnesota’s defense is often praised for its terrific secondary, but its defensive line is just as stout. Defensive tackle Linval Joseph and edge rusher Everson Griffen each ranked in the top seven at their respective positions last year according to PFF. Their front is even better now after acquiring Sheldon Richardson, who started his Vikings career with a bang, collecting 6 tackles and 7 quarterback pressures last week against San Francisco.

These three should do a number on a Green Bay offensive line that is average up the middle, making life difficult for the Packers’ running game. That could put Rodgers — if he plays — in a number of third-and-long situations, which is exactly where Minnesota’s defense excels.

MINNESOTA 30, Green Bay 17 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-1) 

1:00 PM ET CBS        Spread: PIT -4.5        O/U: 53.5        DVOA: KC (10) < PIT (1)         Public Betting: KC 73%

Patrick Mahomes looked terrific in Week One, but I’m not sure Kansas City is equipped to go on the road and beat a Pittsburgh team coming off a disappointing opener.

Lost amid the Chiefs’ offensive fireworks against the Chargers was the fact that their defense allowed a staggering 7.3 yards per play for a total of 541 yards. The Steelers still may be without Le’Veon Bell, but James Conner looked great in his place last week (31 carries, 135 yards) and Ben Roethlisberger almost always plays better at home (106.9 quarterback rating since 2014) than he does on the road (85.8 rating).

PITTSBURGH 31, Kansas City 24 

 

New York Giants (0-1) vs Dallas Cowboys (0-1) 

8:20 PM ET NBC       Spread: DAL -3        O/U: 42.5         DVOA: NYG (31) < DAL (9)          Public Betting: NYG 69%

Here are the stakes: teams that start 0-2 have only a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

Dallas may be at home in this matchup, but that could prove to be a disadvantage if Cowboys fans grow frustrated by another inept performance from their offense. Moreover, Dallas’ 26th ranked rushing defense could be in for a long night against rookie Saquon Barkley, who finished with the league’s 2nd most yards per attempt after contact (5.28) in Week One. Special teams is also a concern, as new kicker Brett Maher missed his only kick against Carolina in place of the veteran Dan Bailey.

Perhaps I’m overrating the Giants, who measure as the 2nd worst team in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. Regardless, I think the star-studded duo of Barkley and Odell Beckham will lead New York to a crucial road victory.

NEW YORK 20, Dallas 17 

 

Upset Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers (1-0) vs Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

1:00 PM ET FOX        Spread: ATL -6          O/U: 44.5         DVOA: CAR (12) > ATL (14)          Public Betting: CAR 57%

The Falcons suffered two catastrophic injuries in Week One, losing linebacker Deion Jones (foot) and safety Keanu Neal (ACL). Granted, Carolina lost a couple of notable players last week as well, such as tight end Greg Olsen (foot). But with the league’s ninth ranked defense, I think the Panthers can keep Atlanta’s offense in check. Look for Christian McCaffrey (80 receptions in 2017) to exploit Jones’ absence as well.

CAROLINA 23, Atlanta 20 

 

Also on the Sunday Slate…

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) vs Washington Redskins (1-0)

1:00 PM ET CBS          Spread: WSH -6          O/U: 48.5          DVOA: IND (21) < WSH (11)         Public Betting: WSH 57%

It was great to see Andrew Luck play well in his return to the field last Sunday (39-53, 319 yards), but I certainly wasn’t encouraged by what I saw from the Colts as a whole. Indianapolis’ defense allowed 6.6 yards per play, including seven rushes of over 10+ yards. Facing an efficient quarterback in Alex Smith, I like the Redskins to put together another well-rounded performance.

WASHINGTON 27, Indianapolis 20

 

Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) vs Buffalo Bills (0-1)

1:00 PM ET CBS         Spread: LAC -7.5           O/U: 43.5         DVOA: LAC (19) > BUF (32)          Public Betting: LAC 82%

The only thing I’d be worried about if I were a Chargers fan is the fact that West Coast teams often struggle when they play 1:00 games on the East Coast. Nonetheless, I don’t trust Josh Allen to move the ball consistently in his first NFL start. That should give Phillip Rivers and company plenty of scoring opportunities.

LOS ANGELES 27, Buffalo 13 

 

Houston Texans (0-1) vs Tennessee Titans (0-1)

1:00 PM ET CBS         Spread: HOU -3          O/U: 43         DVOA: HOU (13) > TEN (18)          Public Betting: HOU 84%

The Titans are banged up. Tight end Delanie Walker, arguably their best offensive player, is done for the season with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, quarterback Marcus Mariota (elbow) is questionable to suit up against Houston. Head coach Mike Vrabel even said he expects both Mariota and backup Blaine Gabbert to see time. I’m not exactly sure what that means for Mariota…I’ll take the Texans given this uncertainty.

HOUSTON 24, Tennessee 20 

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) vs New York Jets (1-0)

1:00 PM ET CBS         Spread: NYJ -2.5        O/U: 43         DVOA: MIA (23) < NYJ (17)           Public Betting: NYJ 56%

Can we finally give Todd Bowles the respect he deserves? Sure, he hasn’t taken the Jets to the playoffs yet, but he always has them outperforming expectations.

Granted, expectations for Gang Green have been fairly low in recent years. That is starting to change, though, thanks to rookie Sam Darnold as well as a young, emerging secondary. I’ll take New York to build off their impressive Week One win over a mediocre Miami team.

NEW YORK 20, Miami 16 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

1:00 PM ET FOX          Spread: PHI -3           O/U: 44.5          DVOA: PHI (4) > TB (25)           Public Betting: PHI 73%

Who knows what to expect from Ryan Fitzpatrick on a weekly basis? Philadelphia is excellent defensively, so I’ll roll with the defending champs.

PHILADELPHIA 22, Tampa Bay 17 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-0-1) vs New Orleans Saints (1-0)

1:00 PM ET FOX           Spread: NO -9.5          O/U: 49            DVOA: CLE (24) < NO (6)           Public Betting: NO 66%

Myles Garrett and company won’t be able to slow down the Saints’ sensational offense (8.1 yards per play last week in a 48-40 loss to Tampa Bay). I bet New Orleans’ defense comes out with a chip on its shoulder, too.

NEW ORLEANS 35, Cleveland 17 

 

Arizona Cardinals (0-1) vs Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

4:05 PM ET FOX           Spread: LAR -13          O/U: 44.5           DVOA: ARZ (26) < LAR (2)          Public Betting: LAR 60%

Arizona laid an egg last week in its 24-6 loss to Washington. However, one game isn’t enough for me to change my opinion that the Cardinals aren’t as bad as people think, so I’ll take the value with the spread even though I expect the Rams to move to 2-0.

Los Angeles 27, ARIZONA 20 

 

Detroit Lions (0-1) vs San Francisco 49ers (0-1)

4:05 PM ET FOX           Spread: SF -6          O/U: 48.5          DVOA: DET (30) < SF (29)            Public Betting: SF 74%

This may be a buy-low opportunity after the Lions’ ugly Monday Night loss to the Jets. Their injury report is really concerning, though. Two of their offensive linemen — T.J. Lang and Andrew Donnal — have already been ruled out, defensive end Ziggy Ansah (shoulder) is questionable, and who knows how healthy Matthew Stafford will be after taking a few brutal hits last week.

I’ll take Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners to bounce back and grab their first win.

San Francisco 28, DETROIT 24 

 

Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs Denver Broncos (1-0)

4:25 PM ET CBS           Spread: DEN -6.5           O/U: 46          DVOA: OAK (27) < DEN (20)          Public Betting: DEN 59%

How about this stat: Denver is 22-1 at home in the first two weeks of the season since 2000. 22-1! Combine that with Oakland’s lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball and I’ll take the Broncos to comfortably move to 2-0.

DENVER 26, Oakland 17 

 

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) vs Chicago Bears (0-1)

8:15 PM ET ESPN           Spread: CHI -3.5             O/U: 43           DVOA: SEA (16) > CHI (28)             Public Betting: SEA 58%

The Bears should be able to generate pressure thanks to new addition Khalil Mack (he was PFF’s highest-graded player in Week One), but I still don’t trust Chicago’s ability to score points. Mitchell Trubisky averaged only 4.9 yards per pass against Green Bay last week and was particularly awful when the Bears needed him most, as he passed for only 65 yards on 21 attempts in the second half as Chicago blew a 20-0 lead.

In short, Seattle has a big edge at quarterback. I trust Russell Wilson to play well in spite of his below-average offensive line and lead Seattle to victory.

SEATTLE 19, Chicago 17  

 

Best Bets

• New England vs Jacksonville UNDER 44.5 

• TEASER: MINNESOTA (+6.5) over Green Bay & Pittsburgh vs Kansas City OVER 47 

• TEASER: NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Cleveland & ARIZONA (+19.5) over Los Angeles 

• DENVER (-260) over Oakland 

• SEATTLE (+3.5) over Chicago