This is the sixth article of an eight-part NFL preview series in which I analyze the eight most compelling teams to watch this season. Click here to read why I think the Texans are the league’s top Super Bowl dark horse; here to read why Dallas is poised to disappoint in 2018; here to read why Jimmy Garoppolo is the real deal; here to read why this year might be the most pivotal of Drew Brees’ career; and here to read about my pick to win the NFC.
The Oakland Raiders made Jon Gruden one of the highest paid coaches in NFL history after giving him a 10-year, $100 million contract in January. But after trading 2016 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears on Saturday, I have a feeling the Raiders will soon question their decision to sign Gruden to such an enormous contract.
Per Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman, the Raiders’ locker room was in “a state of shock” after receiving word of the Mack trade. Hardly a surprise. It has been well documented that Gruden has had a frosty relationship with the twenty-seven year-old Mack ever since the former fifth overall pick demanded a $100 million contract. However, I thought it was inconceivable that Gruden, who also serves as GM, would actually trade the player with the second most sacks in the NFL since 2015, especially given the Raiders’ struggles defensively last season.
Well, apparently the word inconceivable doesn’t mean what I think it means.
How will Oakland stop anyone this year? Mack was the only Pro Bowl player on a horrid defense that ranked 29th in DVOA last year. With Mack gone, the Raiders’ pass rush will now rely on Bruce Irvin (8 sacks in ’17) and…well, that’s about it. Not a whole lot of depth (or talent). This will put even more stress on their secondary, which finished 30th against the pass in 2017 according to Football Outsiders and made no noteworthy upgrades over the offseason.
Speaking of the offseason, Gruden made a number of puzzling acquisitions. Rather than signing younger players who have upside, Oakland went after injury-riddled players like WR Jordy Nelson and over-the-hill veterans such as LB Derrick Johnson and RB Doug Martin. They also took a huge gamble by trading a third round pick for troubled Pittsburgh wide receiver Martavis Bryant.
The Bryant move has already backfired, as Oakland cut the fourth-year pro on Saturday after rumors circulated that he would be suspended for the upcoming season due to another positive drug test. I’m skeptical that signing players like Johnson, who is 35 years-old, and Martin, who has averaged 2.9 yards per carry since 2016, will pan out as well.
With that said, there is one source of hope for Oakland this season: Derek Carr. It was just two years ago that Carr ranked 11th on the NFL’s Top 100 player rankings following his terrific 2016 campaign (28 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). In other words, the guy has proven he can play. And with a dependable offensive line and a couple of quality targets in Amari Cooper and (possibly) Jordy Nelson, I think it’s likely that Carr bounces back.
But even if Carr returns to his 2016 form, how will the Raiders improve after jettisoning their best player and making a number of questionable offseason signings?
Short answer: they won’t. Gruden better have some tricks up his sleeve or else Raiders nation will lose confidence in him after what I project to be another disappointing season for the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders.
