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Spread Bet Saturday: Week One Edition
Last Season: 55-36-1 (.603)
*Overall: 127-95-2 (.571)
*Dates back to 2016 season
CAPITAL LETTERS indicate pick with the spread Italics indicate home team
Marquee Matchups
#6 Washington vs #9 Auburn *Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Spread: Auburn -2 3:30 EST ABC Football Power Index: WASH (5) > AUB (7)
The weekend’s only matchup between top ten teams should be a tight one. Quarterback Jake Browning and the Huskies enter the season as a trendy playoff pick — and with nine starters returning on a defense that ranked 6th in opponent yards per play last season, they just might make the CFP.
However, Washington’s three losses last season all came away from home (Chris Petersen’s squad was just 2-4 against in the spread in these matchups as well). Auburn, meanwhile, projects to be terrific on both sides of the ball once again. Jarrett Stidham is back under center to lead a Tigers’ passing offense that ranked in the top 20 of yards per attempt in 2017, while their defense returns 7 starters from a unit that finished as one of the stingiest secondaries in the nation last season.
AUBURN 27 Washington 21
Louisville vs #1 Alabama *Camping World Stadium, Orlando
Spread: Alabama -24.5 8:00 EST ABC Football Power Index: LOU (34) < ALA (2)
Who will Nick Saban start at quarterback: the reliable Jalen Hurts or national championship sensation Tua Tagovaoila? Eh, who cares. Louisville no longer has Lamar Jackson and its defense, which ranked 70th in opponent yards per play last season, doesn’t have a chance to stop the Crimson Tide no matter who Saban chooses to put under center.
ALABAMA 45 Louisville 17
#8 Miami vs #25 LSU *AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Spread: Miami -3.5 Sunday 7:30 EST ABC Football Power Index: MIA (14) > LSU (25)
I’m not on the Hurricanes’ bandwagon. For starters, they were overly reliant on forcing turnovers last season. More importantly, though, quarterback Malik Rosier is unbelievably overrated. He threw 10 interceptions and completed under 50% of his passes in Miami’s final six games last season against legitimate teams like Clemson, Wisconsin, and Virginia Tech.
Give me a strong SEC defense with the spread all day long.
LSU 28 Miami 20
#20 Virginia Tech vs #19 Florida State
Spread: Florida State -7.5 Monday 8:00 EST ESPN Football Power Index: VT (24) < FSU (19)
I liked quarterback Deondre Francois two years ago when he was healthy. But is he healthy coming off a patella injury that caused him to miss all of last season? Given this uncertainty, I’ll take the Hokies with the spread considering they are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of fewer than 7.5 points.
Florida State 30 VIRGINIA TECH 24
Best Bet
#14 Michigan (+1) trounces #12 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame -1 7:30 EST NBC Football Power Index: MICH (11) < ND (6)
The Fighting Irish are in trouble this Saturday night. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is coming off a season in which he completed only 49% of his passes; and after losing their starting running back and two exceptional offensive linemen in guard Quenton Nelson and tackle Mike McGlinchey, each of whom were selected in the top ten of last year’s NFL draft, the erratic Wimbush will carry even more of the load offensively in 2018.
That doesn’t bode well for Notre Dame against Michigan’s terrific defense. Star defensive tackle Rashan Gary and nine other starters return for a unit that allowed the fewest first downs per game last season. Cornerbacks David Long and LaVert Hill may even be the best defensive backfield duo in the country: the two of them combined to allow a staggeringly low 25.1 passer rating when targeted by opposing quarterbacks in 2017.
Anyone know if I can make a prop bet on Michigan’s D pitching a shutout?
MICHIGAN 27 Notre Dame 10
Upset Pick of the Week
Tennessee (+9.5) wins straight up over #17 West Virginia
Spread: West Virginia -9.5 3:30 EST CBS TEN (56) < WVU (39)
The Volunteers are big underdogs against the Mountaineers, as 62% of the betting public is backing West Virginia. However, teams ranked between 15th and 25th in the AP Poll have been found to be overvalued from a betting standpoint, particularly in the first few weeks of the season. In the first week of the 2016 season, for instance, ranked teams went just 1-5 against the spread versus un-ranked Power Five teams.
I smell an upset…so how about Tennessee pulling off a surprising victory over a West Virginia team that finished 95th in points allowed last season?
TENNESSEE 35 West Virginia 31
Last but certainly not least…playoff predictions!
I’ve set the bar high for myself based on my last two preseason prediction articles. Granted, predicting Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide to win the national championship is hardly bold, but I still correctly picked Clemson to win it all before the 2016 season and Alabama to win last year.
And in 2018…well, Roll Tide.
The argument is simple. Alabama has always had exceptional skill-position players and terrific defenses. Never has it had a quarterback as dynamic as Tua Tagovaoila. I know, I know, he hasn’t even been named the starter yet. But odds are that Saban will roll with his top rated recruit who threw three second-half touchdown passes to lead ‘Bama back from thirteen points down in last January’s national championship.
Not even Clemson, who projects to be outstanding defensively thanks to its sensational front four, will be able to prevent Saban from winning another title. After besting Urban “I’m not a liar even though I was suspended for lying about covering up a potential criminal investigation” Meyer and his shameful Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff semifinal, I like Alabama to beat Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines, who will upset Clemson in the other semifinal, to win the title.
Sure, it’s a boring national champion pick. But hey: at least I’m not picking another Alabama vs Clemson rematch!
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