This is the fourth article of an eight-part NFL preview series in which I analyze the eight most compelling teams to watch this season. Click here to read why I think the Texans are the league’s top Super Bowl dark horse; here to read why Dallas is poised to disappoint in 2018; and here to read why Jimmy Garoppolo is the real deal.
Drew Brees will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. That much is certain regardless of how the Saints’ superstar performs in the final years of his career.
His standing among the other elite quarterbacks in NFL history, however, is less concrete. Let me explain why.
From a numbers standpoint, Brees unequivocally belongs in the top ten of all-time greats at his position. He’s only 1,496 yards away from eclipsing Peyton Manning’s record for career passing yards (71,940), which is hardly surprising considering Brees owns the NFL record for most 5,000 yard seasons (4) and most seasons as the NFL’s passing yards leader (7). On top of that, Brees is tied for 3rd all-time with Tom Brady in career touchdown passes (488) and owns NFL records for the highest single-season completion percentage (72.0% in 2017) and most consecutive games with a TD pass (54).
Yet while his regular season statistics are largely unmatched, Brees’ postseason resume does not compare favorably to many of the other all-timers. Yes, he led the Saints to a Super Bowl title in 2009. But in seventeen seasons, Brees only has two conference championship appearances (1-1) and a 7-6 playoff record. Among other surefire Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks of his era (i.e. Brady, Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers), these numbers are the least impressive. We know what Brady has accomplished; Manning has quarterbacked in four Super Bowls; Roethlisberger has a 13-8 postseason record; and Rodgers has 9 playoff victories and three conference championship appearances in seven fewer seasons as a starter. In fact, Brees’ teams have missed the playoffs more often than they’ve made it, which is odd to say for someone as sensational as the Saints’ superstar.
In fairness to Brees, he’s rarely had a quality defense and/or an above-average arsenal of offensive weapons. Since joining New Orleans in 2006, for instance, the Saints’ defense has finished in the bottom five of defensive DVOA five times. And outside of Jimmy Graham, Brees’ has never been surrounded by elite playmakers.
This is no longer the case, though. Thanks largely to a terrific 2017 draft class led by dynamic running back Alvin Kamara (1,901 yards from scrimmage in ’17) and ball-hawking corner Marshon Lattimore (5 interceptions), the Saints now arguably have their most complete roster of the Brees era. Whereas the ’09 Super Bowl team finished only 17th in total defense according to Football Outsiders, last year’s D ranked 6th thanks to stud rookies like Lattimore as well as All-Pro defensive end Cameron Jordan (13 sacks). Meanwhile, Kamara’s emergence coupled with fellow running back Mark Ingram’s presence helped New Orleans finish with the league’s top rushing attack last season. We also can’t neglect Pro Bowl receiver Michael Thomas, Brees’ top target, who should only get better as he enters his third professional season.
Armed with a Super Bowl-caliber roster, Brees has an opportunity to not only cement his legacy as an undisputed top-ten signal caller of all-time, but enhance it enough to where he legitimately belongs in the Mount Rushmore conversation. Yes, the Mount Rushmore conversation.
Thank about it. He’s arguably the most prolific regular season quarterback of all-time, as highlighted above. Only Brady, Manning, and, if you adjust for the era he played in, Dan Marino are in the same conversation. If Brees can add to his impressive list of accomplishments by winning a second Super Bowl, and thus equaling the title count reached by players like Manning and John Elway, a serious discussion should at least take place as to whether Brees, rather than Manning, is the second greatest quarterback of the 21st century after Brady.
Left unsaid, though, is how Brees recently found himself on the cusp of this opportunity after leading the Saints on not one, but two go-ahead drives in the final minutes of last year’s Divisional Playoff against the Vikings. Then Stefon Diggs happened. As teams like the Falcons and Seahawks can attest to, devastating playoff defeats are no way to build momentum into the following season. And with the NFC projected to be even more competitive in 2018, Saints’ fans are unlikely to forget about last season’s gigantic missed opportunity any time soon.
Nonetheless, Brees has defied the odds by remaining one of the league’s best quarterbacks even as he approaches his 40th birthday. For that reason, the final chapter of Brees’ storied career has yet to be written; and with the help of his most talented supporting cast in years, that last chapter could turn out to be his most remarkable.
