This is the third article of a ten-part NFL preview series in which I analyze the ten most compelling teams to watch this season. Click here to read why I think the Texans are the league’s top Super Bowl dark horse; and here to read why Dallas is poised to disappoint in 2018.
Is Jimmy Garoppolo overrated? That’s a question Drew Levine and I debated on the latest episode of Two Point Stance. Drew was firmly in the overrated camp, citing his relatively modest touchdown-to-interception ratio (7/5) in his five starts for the 49ers last season, a majority of which came against weak opponents (i.e. the Bears, DeShaun Watson-less Texans) or playoff teams resting their starters (i.e. the Rams).
Fair arguments, but Garoppolo is worthy of being placed alongside many of the game’s best quarterbacks. No, he is obviously not on the same level as his former predecessor in New England, but the former Eastern Illinois product could be a top five quarterback in the NFC come season’s end — which is saying something considering the conference includes Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, and others.
Of course, the first argument you’ll hear from any Jimmy G proponent is that he’s undefeated as a starter. Seven starts, seven wins. That’s only part of the story, though. Garoppolo’s stats were terrific last season, as his 8.76 yards per pass attempt and 80.5 Total QBR ranked 1st and 2nd respectively among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. He was even better in his two starts with the Patriots in 2016, throwing four touchdowns without an interception while completing 68% of his passes. Some sort of regression may be inevitable for Garoppolo (after all, he’s played at an historically-good rate), but even so, he’s poised to finish near the top of the statistical leaderboards for years to come.
Now let’s put Garoppolo’s outstanding numbers into context. Remember that when he took over as San Francisco’s starter in Week 13 of last season, the 49ers were 1-10 and had lost 24 of their previous 27 games. Armed with what would be classified at best as an average arsenal of offensive weapons (running back Carlos Hyde, wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin), Garoppolo still managed to immediately turn San Francisco into a competent team.
Sure, as mentioned above, Garoppolo and the 49ers did catch a few scheduling breaks. They also were hardly a juggernaut over that five-week stretch (they needed a last second field goal to beat the 5-11 Bears, for instance). However, the fact is this: Garoppolo led San Fran to two legitimate victories over playoff opponents. The first came against the Titans, a game in which the 49ers were down 23-22 with 1:07 remaining before Garoppolo engineered a 7-play, 48-yard drive to set up a game-winning field goal by Robbie Gould. The second win, though, was far more impressive. Going up against Jacksonville, the league’s top-ranked defense, Garoppolo accounted for three touchdowns while leading the 49ers to a 44-point outing. That was the most points the stingy Jaguars surrendered all season.
Garoppolo is legit. And, in time, he’ll prove that the 49ers were right to hand him a massive five-year, $137.5 million deal (and that my Patriots were wrong to let him go for only a second round pick).
But that doesn’t mean I expect Garoppolo to lead San Francisco back to the postseason in 2018. After all, Kyle Shanahan’s squad is largely in rebuilding mode, quarterback position aside. The 49ers’ young defense is coming off a year in which it finished 25th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric. San Francisco was especially bad at defending the pass, which explains why GM John Lynch signed former Seattle standout Richard Sherman to strengthen their secondary. But I doubt that Sherman, who’s coming off a torn achilles, will dramatically improve San Francisco’s pass defense. And while I like many of the additions made on the offensive side of the ball (they signed former Giant Weston Richburg, one of the league’s best centers, as well as versatile running back Jerick McKinnon), San Francisco still has a rather unimpressive group of skill players. In other words, Garoppolo will carry a heavy burden on a weekly basis.
Plus, the NFC is unbelievably deep. The 49ers will contend with an emerging Rams team in their own division, as well as a host of other teams (Minnesota/Green Bay, New Orleans/Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Dallas, etc) for wild card slots.
San Francisco will be strong enough to compete for a postseason berth thanks to Garoppolo. However, the 49ers will need the rest of their roster, particularly their defense, to develop sooner than expected in order to crack 10 wins in such a competitive conference.
Once this development takes place, though, Garoppolo and company will annually contend for Super Bowl’s.
