On June 15th, the Oakland Athletics lost their fifth game in six days to fall to 34-36, 11.5 games behind the defending champion Astros in the AL West.
But boy have the A’s mounted quite a turnaround. With a 7-1 victory over Houston yesterday, Oakland (74-39) enters play on August 19th tied for first place in the West.
It goes without saying that the A’s have defied expectations in 2018. Projected to fall short of the postseason for the fourth consecutive year before the season began (only 3 of Fangraph’s 40 pundits predicted they would earn a wild card berth, for instance), simply reaching the playoffs — let alone dethroning the defending champion Astros to win the division — will be a terrific accomplishment for Oakland.
However, the A’s sudden emergence has hardly been fluky. I mentioned how Oakland was 11.5 games behind Houston on June 15th. Well, since then, the A’s are a sensational 40-13 (.755), tied with the Red Sox for the best record in baseball. Moreover, their run differential over this span (+81) is 3rd in MLB behind Boston and Cleveland. As I said, hardly a fluke.
Yet even if the Athletics naturally regress over the regular season’s final six weeks (after all, .755 win percentages are difficult for any team to sustain), Oakland’s main strengths, namely its underrated offense and terrific bullpen, should allow them to seriously contend come October.
Let’s look first at the A’s offense. After only finishing 18th in Fangraph’s offensive WAR metric last year, Oakland ranks 7th in the same category this season. Outfielder Khris Davis has undoubtedly been the main contributor from a power perspective. His 34 home runs rank third in baseball behind J.D. Martinez (38) and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez (37) — and he should have little trouble crossing the 40+ home run threshold for the third consecutive season. How has this guy never been named an All-Star?
But in contrast to past years when the A’s have largely relied on Davis to produce runs, Oakland now has a far deeper lineup that includes infielder Jed Lowrie (.468 slugging percentage), first baseman Matt Olson (23 home runs), and, most notably, third baseman Matt Chapman, who has emerged as one of the better players in baseball (5.3 WAR — sixth in MLB). It also should be noted that players like Chapman (15th in the AL in slugging%), Lowrie, and shortstop Marcus Semien provide even more value with their gloves. Chapman and Semien, for instance, rank 3rd and 5th respectively among all qualified fielders in Fangraph’s defensive WAR metric.
The main reason for the A’s recent success, though, is their standout bullpen, which has one of the lowest ERA’s in baseball (3.36). In fact, no set of relievers have been more valuable than Oakland’s this year. Led by lights-out closer Blake Treinen (0.87 ERA, 3.2 WAR), the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 1st in both Win Probability Added and Fangraphs’ clutch metric.
Last year’s Astros aside (their bullpen only ranked 8th in ERA), strong relief staffs have guided teams like the Cubs and Royals championships in recent years. Though their starting pitching staff outside of Sean Manea (3.44 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (3.12 ERA) is not intimidating, the A’s elite bullpen, combined with their solid lineup and defense, will enable them to compete against the other contenders in the AL, many of whom Oakland has already played surprisingly well against in the regular season (4-2 vs Boston, 4-2 vs Cleveland, 5-1 in its last six games vs Houston).
Plus, the other teams Oakland may face in the playoffs have concerns of their own, particularly on the injury front. Cleveland recently lost Trevor Bauer (2.22 ERA) to a stress fracture in his leg. Aaron Judge (fractured wrist) remains out for the Yankees. Houston has a host of key players on the DL as well (Jose Altuve, George Springer, Lance McCullers). While all are expected to be healthy by October (Springer, for instance, is set to return shortly), their absence may force the Astros to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff.
As for the Red Sox, the only other team that has played as well as the A’s over the past two months…well, they’re still on track to win upwards of 110 games. Don’t necessarily count on Oakland to reach the World Series, in other words. However, with Chris Sale going back on the DL for the second time since the All-Star break, Boston may be a tad vulnerable in the playoffs if it’s forced to rely on David Price (2-8, 5.03 postseason ERA) and Rick Porcello (0-3, 5.47 postseason ERA) as its primary starters.
So as surprising as it may seem to see Oakland vying for first place alongside the Astros, don’t be shocked to see the A’s success continue come October. Their bullpen is dynamite; their lineup is solid; and no team aside from Boston has played better since mid-June.
Plus, baseball’s most revolutionary general manager is due to win a ring at some point. Makes sense that if ever there was a time when Billy Beane were to guide the A’s to a World Series title, it would be in a season where the odds initially seemed most improbable.
