Next Thursday, the 21st FIFA World Cup will kick off with the host Russians taking on Saudi Arabia. And while the opening match likely won’t be a memorable affair (after all, Russia and Saudi Arabia are ranked 44th and 63rd respectively in the World Football Elo Ratings), this year’s tournament should be terrific considering it features a plethora of heavyweights (Germany, Brazil, Spain), compelling dark horses (i.e. Belgium), new superstars (Egypt’s Mo Salah, Brazil’s Gabriel Jesus), and…wait, how did Iceland crash the party?
Let’s get right into it: here are the eighteen prop bets I’m making ahead of this year’s World Cup.
(Note: All odds courtesy of Bovada)
Top Goal Scorer
Favorites: Lionel Messi (+900), Neymar (+900)
I’ll start with a marquee prop bet. Unsurprisingly, Messi and Neymar are the co-favorites. But I don’t love Messi’s value because I’m not sold on Argentina’s chances to make a deep run given its relatively poor qualifying record and I’m going to pass on Neymar because (spoiler alert) I have him saved for another prop bet.
Thus, my pick is Antoine Greizmann (+1,200). He’s undoubtedly France’s top scoring option, especially since manager Aime Jacquet left Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema off the roster, and I think the Atletico Madrid forward will have an opportunity to clean up in the group stage against susceptible defenses like Australia and Peru. Plus, unlike teams like Argentina or Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal squad, France has a legitimate chance to win the tournament.
However, I’m also going to sprinkle some money on two other players: Germany’s Thomas Muller (+2,500) and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski (+2,500). Muller is arguably the best value play based on his previous national team success, as the twenty-eight year-old Bayern star has scored five goals in each of the past two World Cup’s. Lewandowski, meanwhile, is easily Poland’s best player. So if his country makes a run, the leading goal-scorer in the Bundesliga this past season could be poised to claim the honor.
Bet #1: Greizmann (+1,200)
Bet #2: Muller (+2,500)
Bet #3: Lewandowski (+2,500)
Bet #4: Uruguay (-140) to win Group A
Surprisingly, I actually view Uruguay (17th in FIFA World Rankings) as the weakest of the eight countries favored to win their respective group. With that said, Luis Suarez and company will benefit from facing the weakest set of opponents in the round robin. As mentioned in the introduction, Russia and Saudi Arabia are arguably the two weakest teams in the field; and while I project Egypt to advance to the Round of 16, there are serious questions surrounding the health of its superstar, Mohamed Salah, who you may remember got injured in last month’s Champions League Final.
Bet #5: Germany, Brazil, and Belgium to win their respective groups (+205)
This parlay is a little bit of a gamble: after all, soccer is unpredictable and it’s conceivable that one of these favorites struggles early and finishes, say, second in their group. But with Germany and Brazil as clear favorites to reach the final, let alone win their group, I view this wager as simply an endorsement of Kevin de Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Belgium to top England in Group G.
Bet #6: Spain & Portugal to finish in top two (in order) in Group B (-140)
Anchored by all-world defenders Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique, Spain’s defense (3 goals allowed in 10 qualifying matches) projects to be nearly as stingy as it was in 2010, when it did not concede a single goal in the knockout round en route to winning the country’s first title. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal should have little trouble against the other two teams in its group, Morocco and Iran, but I like the Spaniard’s to contain the Real Madrid superstar and finish atop Group B.
Bet #7: Group C Exact order — France, Denmark, Peru, Australia (+185)
It’s safe to pencil in France and Australia in their respective positions. And I’ll take Denmark to slip past Peru because the Danes have not allowed more than one goal in any of its previous eleven national team matches.
Bet #8: Switzerland (+110) to advance to group stage
The Swiss, who advanced to the Round of 16 in the most recent Euro and World Cups, are consistently underrated. And after finishing with the fifth-most points (27) in European qualifying, Switzerland is a near-lock to finish second in its group after Brazil.
Bet #9: Iceland (+325) to advance to group stage (!)
Iceland has become one of the biggest Cinderella stories in recent history after following up its run to the quarterfinals in the 2016 Euro Cup by securing its first ever World Cup appearance. But as evidenced by its success in the last Euro Cup, as well as the fact that it finished ahead of its Group D counterpart Croatia to win its World Cup qualifying group, Iceland should not be taken lightly. Thus, I like the “Cinderella story” to continue into at least the Round of 16.
Bet #10: Ronaldo (+120) to score more goals than Messi
Speaking of Group D, which includes Lionel Messi and Argentina, I might as well take a side with respect to which superstar will have the more outstanding World Cup. I’ll take Ronaldo for one reason: less competition for goals. Whereas Messi has the likes of Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain to compete with for goals, Ronaldo is clearly the top option for Portugal.
Bet #11: Portugal and Argentina to meet in World Cup final (+6600)
To be clear: this is not my actual finals prediction. Wouldn’t it be unbelievable, though, to see arguably the two greatest players of all-time compete against each other in a World Cup final?
Bet #12 and #13: Colombia (+185) and Portugal (+135) to reach quarterfinal
Both countries could have favorable paths to the elite eight. Colombia will likely face either Belgium or England, and while it’s more likely James Rodriguez and company would prevail against England, I’ll take my chances with such enticing odds. As for Portugal, I project it will play either Uruguay, who I said earlier will be the weakest of the group winners, or Egypt, who has Mo Salah and…well, no one else. So I like both of these countries to slip into the quarterfinal.
Bet #14 and #15: Germany (+100) and France (+275) to reach semifinal
The Germans are looking to make their fifth consecutive final four appearance. After finishing with the largest goal differential in European qualifying, I think that is a strong possibility. As for France, I think this European heavyweight has too much talent offensively with the likes of Griezmann, Manchester United’s Paul Pogba, and PSG’s Kylian Mbappe to go home earlier than expected.
Bet #16: Brazil (+225) to reach the final
Bet #17: Neymar (+900) to receive Golden Ball for tournament’s best player
After dominating South American qualifying, I believe Brazil has what it takes to win it all (or at least make the final). Moreover, the world’s third best player — after Ronaldo and Messi — will be the biggest reason for Brazil’s first finals appearance since 2002.
Unfortunately, however, I think Neymar will follow in Lionel Messi’s footsteps after the Argentinian forward won the Golden Ball in 2014 despite his country losing in the World Cup final…
Champion: Spain (+600) over Brazil
Spain has an ideal mix of strong veteran leadership and compelling young talent to win its second World Cup. More importantly, though, the Spaniards are arguably the best defensive club in the tournament, as they’re anchored in net by Manchester United’s David de Gea and in the back by a host of Real Madrid and Barcelona stalwarts. And there shouldn’t be many questions about Spain’s offense either, as it is led by a combination of big-name players, like Atletico Madrid and former Chelsea striker Diego Costa, and emerging stars, like Real Madrid’s Isco.
Taken together, there is a reason why Spain is unbeaten in its nineteen matches under new manager Julen Lopetegui. In short, the 2010 champions are peaking at the right time, which is why I like them to beat Brazil and win the 2018 tournament.
