With the 2018 World Cup set to kick off in ten days, it’s time I start getting my predictions (and bets) in order. Before I unveil my official picks later this week, though, I want to briefly analyze a critical component of the tournament that may have predictive value: qualifying success.
The theory is simple: the most successful countries in the qualification stages of the tournament should ultimately have the most success in the World Cup. But does history support this notion? Well, recent history sure does. Take a look at the qualifying records of the six most recent finalists:
- 2014: *Germany (9-0-1 qualifying record, most points in European qualifying) over Argentina (9-2-5 qualifying record, most points in South American qualifying)
- 2010: *Spain (10-0-0, most points in Europe) over *Netherlands (8-0-0, second most points in Europe)
- 2006: Italy (7-1-2) over *France (5-0-5)
*Unbeaten in qualifying
With the exception of the 2006 champions, five of the six recent finalists either were unbeaten and/or had the most points in their respective qualifying regions. Clearly pre-World Cup records have been indicative of future success over the past three tournaments.
However, if we extend this discussion back a bit further, qualifying success has not proven to guarantee deep World Cup runs. In 2002, for instance, Argentina finished with the most points in South American qualifying yet did not make it out of the group stage. Brazil, meanwhile, won that year’s World Cup despite losing six of its eighteen qualifying matches. A similar story also occurred in 1990, as none of the four finalists won their respective group divisions (Italy, however, was exempt from qualifying that year since it was the host country).
Nonetheless, it’s undoubtedly helpful to at least identify the most dominant teams during the qualifying rounds, particularly since pre-World Cup success has proven to be especially predictive over the past two tournaments.
Two teams to immediately take note of are Brazil and Germany. Sure, this is hardly a surprise, but with teams like Spain and Belgium being discussed by some pundits as more worthy title contenders, it’s worth noting that the defending champions were unbeaten (10-0-0) in European qualifying stages while posting a continental-best +39 goal differential (43 goals scored, 4 goals conceded). Bank on a fourth consecutive semifinals appearance, at a minimum, from Joachim Low’s squad.
Brazil, however, has easily been the most impressive team throughout pre-World Cup play, as it claimed the South American qualifying region by 10 points while suffering only one defeat. And with three-goal victories over both Argentina (#5 in FIFA’s world rankings) and Uruguay (#17) over the past twelve months, Brazil’s standing as the betting favorite heading into Russia is legitimate.
Speaking of Argentina, though, it’s also important to highlight top contenders who underperformed during the qualifying stages. And while countries that shockingly did not even make the tournament like the Netherlands, Italy, and, yes, the United States were far bigger disappointments, Argentina (7-4-7 in qualifying stages) played so poorly that it needed a victory over Ecuador last October to stave off early elimination. Though Lionel Messi is certainly capable of taking his country back to the final, I still view Argentina as one of the more likely teams to be upset earlier than expected.
Thus, I don’t expect a rematch of the 2014 final between Germany and Argentina. But I do think we could be in store for another meeting between the two teams with the most World Cup final appearances of all-time. And for Brazil, who infamously lost 7-1 to the Germans in the 2014 semifinal, such a rematch would represent a long-awaited shot at redemption.
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